Evaluation of accuracy of linear regression models in predicting urban stormwater discharge characteristics

Stormwater runoff has been identified as a source of pollution for the environment, especially for receiving waters. In order to quantify and manage the impacts of stormwater runoff on the environment, predictive models and mathematical models have been developed. Predictive tools such as regression models have been widely used to predict stormwater discharge characteristics. Storm event characteristics, such as antecedent dry days （ADD）, have been related to response variables, such as pollutant loads and concentrations. However it has been a controversial issue among many studies to consider ADD as an important variable in predicting stormwater discharge characteristics. In this study, we examined the accuracy of general linear regression models in predicting discharge characteristics of roadway runoff. A total of 17 storm events were monitored in two highway segments, located in Gwangju, Korea. Data from the monitoring were used to calibrate United States Environmental Protection Agency＇s Storm Water Management Model （SWMM）. The calibrated SWMM was simulated for 55 storm events, and the results of total suspended solid （TSS） discharge loads and event mean concentrations （EMC） were extracted. From these data, linear regression models were developed. R2 and p-values of the regression of ADD for both TSS loads and EMCs were investigated. Results showed that pollutant loads were better predicted than pollutant EMC in the multiple regression models. Regression may not provide the true effect of site-specific characteristics, due to uncertainty in the data.     

Fouling distribution in forward osmosis membrane process

Fouling behavior along the length of membrane module was systematically investigated by performing simple modeling and lab-scale experiments of forward osmosis （FO） membrane process. The flux distribution model developed in this study showed a good agreement with experimental results, validating the robustness of the model. This model demonstrated, as expected, that the permeate flux decreased along the membrane channel due to decreasing osmotic pressure differential across the FO membrane. A series of fouling experiments were conducted under the draw and feed solutions at various recoveries simulated by the model. The simulated fouling experiments revealed that higher organic （alginate） fouling and thus more flux decline were observed at the last section of a membrane channel, as foulants in feed solution became more concentrated. Furthermore, the water flux in FO process declined more severely as the recovery increased due to more foulants transported to membrane surface with elevated solute concentrations at higher recovery, which created favorable solution environments for organic adsorption. The fouling reversibility also decreased at the last section of the membrane channel, suggesting that fouling distribution on FO membrane along the module should be carefully examined to improve overall cleaning efficiency. Lastly, it was found that such fouling distribution observed with co-current flow operation became less pronounced in counter- current flow operation of FO membrane process.     

星肋小环藻、铜绿微囊藻春化作用基因控制机理

实验证实了星肋小环藻、铜绿微囊藻的春化作用后,其暴发控制机理成为研究重点。该文通过分析单细胞生物基因操作原理、遗传物质转录复制控制、温度对蛋白质的作用和酶原激活过程等,研究微藻春化作用基因控制机理,提出基因控制模型:激活基因-操纵基因连锁的基因操纵模型,由基因操纵子、调节基因和激活基因组成。该模型阐释2种藻类春末夏初大规模暴发机理:春季,调节基因产生的调节蛋白原被调节蛋白激活酶激活产生的调节蛋白与操纵基因结合,启动结构基因转录合成DNA合成酶系,DNA复制完成,藻体裂殖(繁殖)群体增长;夏季,高温下温度敏感的调节蛋白激活酶变性,使调节蛋白原激活产生变构的调节蛋白,同时与操纵基因和激活基因结合,激活基因不能产生调节蛋白激活酶激活调节蛋白原产生激活蛋白,这时铜绿微囊藻进入生长被抑制状态,星肋小环藻进入高温休眠状态;进入秋季,因之前无低温出现使热变性的激活酶复性,激活产生正常的调节蛋白与操纵基因结合,启动结构基因复制繁殖所需DNA酶系,尽管秋季温光适宜,星肋小环藻不会生长活动,铜绿微囊藻可生长但生长速度低于春末夏初时的生长速度;进入冬季,低温使热变性的激活酶复性,等待来年春暖激活调节蛋白原,启动新一年的藻生长。     

芦苇和藨草对不同程度富营养化水体的净化效果研究

通过设置3种浓度梯度的富营养化水体净化实验,研究了芦苇和藨草的生长状况及其对富营养化水体中N、P的去除效果。结果表明:芦苇和藨草在3种梯度的富营养化水体中均能正常生长,并对水中N、P有明显的去除效果。藨草在处理轻度和中度富营养化水体时要比芦苇占优势,在重度富营养化水体中,芦苇对N、P的去除能力要高于藨草,且二者对水中TP的净化效果要好于TN。通过对受试水样的TN、TP浓度随时间变化的动态曲线拟合得出,水体中TN、TP的浓度随时间变化呈负指数衰减,芦苇和藨草对富营养化水体的净化率随其在水体中停留时间的延长而递增。实验结果为利用挺水植物修复富营养化水体的模式和机理的深入研究提供了科学依据。     

一种基于电化学检测的新型水质综合评价方法

文章建立了一种准确、有效、适用于远程监控的新型水质综合指数(WQCI)评价方法。该方法是基于可采用电化学传感器测量的水质五参数指标:温度(T)、溶解氧(DO)、氧化还原电位(ORP)、电导率(K)、酸碱度(p H),结合数学统计K-star模型以《地表水环境质量标准》(GB-3838-2002)为参照标准,通过K-star模型的分类和运算得出未知水体水质类别。同时还对此水质综合指数(WQCI)评价方法进行了一系列的优化实验,并将检测结果与环保局发布数据做了比较分析,发现结果基本一致。与其它的水质综合评价方法相比,该方法能够实现检测参数所用仪器的一体化,便于现场和远程自动监控分析。若与网络技术结合起来,则可实现水质实时、在线监测。     

突发公共事件应急交通研究综述

突发公共事件下的应急交通管理与控制问题是当前交通领域的一个研究热点。本文介绍了国内外有关应急交通领域的研究现状,对突发公共事件的概念进行了归纳总结,分析了突发公共事件下的应急交通行为;概述了数学分析方法和计算机仿真模拟应急交通疏散的研究成果,从逆向车道设计、交通分流、分阶段交通疏散、交通信号控制、平行应急管理与控制等方面对突发公共事件下的应急交通控制策略进行了分析;最后指出了有待进一步深入研究和探索的问题。     

城市应急重气扩散模型在JU2003扩散试验中的模拟验证

发展了一个能够考虑昼夜大气稳定度差异的城市应急重气扩散模型——SLAB_URBAN模型,利用该模型对美国Oklahoma City Joint Urban 2003(JU2003)城市扩散试验进行了模拟,主要关注下风方向不同观测距离的Cmaxu/Q值,并将模型模拟出的Cmaxu/Q值与JU2003试验观测的Cmaxu/Q值进行了对比验证。结果表明:SLAB_URBAN模型能够模拟出昼夜不同稳定度条件下城市重气扩散在下风方向浓度的分布状况;SLAB_URBAN模型的统计误差分析显示其模拟结果与观测值较一致;此外,从应急反应和安全角度考虑,SLAB_URBAN模型也符合实际工作的需求。     

SWMM模型综述

综述了非点源污染模型的体系,对SWMM模型的原理进行了阐述,如汇水单元产生径流的模拟过程及其原理、污染物累积及冲刷过程的原理、输移模块的模拟原理等。概括了SWMM模型在国内外的研究进展和应用。     

海洋溢油风险分区方法及其应用

突发性海洋溢油污染事故日趋频繁,科学合理的海洋溢油风险分区可为预防和减少这类事故提供管理依据。本文基于海洋溢油风险系统研究和溢油污染事故机理分析,建立海洋溢油风险分区指标体系,提出海洋溢油风险量化模型,确定基于GIS的分区原则、分区单元、风险量化、风险分级等海洋溢油风险分区方法。以大连市近岸海域为例,应用分区方法将大连市近岸海域分为高风险区、中风险区和低风险区三类。     

海洋灾害与海洋经济发展的脉冲响应分析

在测度我国1996~2012年海洋经济发展综合指数的基础上,采用基于VAR模型的广义脉冲响应函数分析方法,探索海洋灾害的发生对我国海洋经济发展综合指数的影响机理及其在时序维度上的动态特征。结果表明:一方面海洋灾害对海洋经济发展的影响总体呈现负效应,另一方面海洋经济发展对海洋灾害的发生也有一定影响。此外,适当滞后期后,海洋灾害和海洋经济发展对于海洋经济发展的单位冲击呈现相一致的反应。