Land use change and forestry climate project regional baselines: a review

Climate change programs have largely used the project-specific approach for estimating baseline emissions of climate mitigation projects. This approach is subjective, lacks transparency, can generate inconsistent baselines for similar projects, and is likely to have high transaction costs. The use of regional baselines, which partially addresses these issues, has been reported in the literature on forestry and agriculture projects, and in greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation program guidance for them (e.g., WRI/WBCSD GHG Project Protocol, USDOE’s 1605(b) registry, UNFCCC’s Clean Development Mechanism). This paper provides an assessment of project-specific and regional baselines approaches for key baseline tasks, using project and program examples. The regional experience to date is then synthesized into generic steps that are referred to as Stratified Regional Baselines (SRB). Regional approaches generally, and SRB in particular explicitly acknowledge the heterogeneity of carbon density, land use change, and other key baseline driver variables across a landscape. SRB focuses on providing guidance on how to stratify lands into parcels with relatively homogeneous characteristics to estimate conservative baselines within a GHG assessment boundary, by applying systematic methods to determine the boundary and time period for input data.

Integrated strategies to reduce vulnerability and advance adaptation,mitigation, and sustainable development

Determinants of adaptive and mitigative capacities (e.g., availability of technological options, and access to economic resources, social capital and human capital) largely overlap. Several factors underlying or related to these determinants are themselves indicators of sustainable development (e.g., per capita income; and various public health, education and research indices). Moreover, climate change could exacerbate existing climate-sensitive hurdles to sustainable development (e.g., hunger, malaria, water shortage, coastal flooding and threats to biodiversity) faced specifically by many developing countries. Based on these commonalities, the paper identifies integrated approaches to formulating strategies and measures to concurrently advance adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. These approaches range from broadly moving sustainable development forward (by developing and/or nurturing institutions, policies and infrastructure to stimulate economic development, technological change, human and social capital, and reducing specific barriers to sustainable development) to reducing vulnerabilities to urgent climate-sensitive risks that hinder sustainable development and would worsen with climate change. The resulting sustainable economic development would also help reduce birth rates, which could mitigate climate change and reduce the population exposed to climate change and climate-sensitive risks, thereby reducing impacts, and the demand for adaptation. The paper also offers a portfolio of pro-active strategies and measures consistent with the above approaches, including example measures that would simultaneously reduce pressures on biodiversity, hunger, and carbon sinks. Finally it addresses some common misconceptions that could hamper fuller integration of adaptation and mitigation, including the notions that adaptation may be unsuitable for natural systems, and mitigation should necessarily have primacy over adaptation.

Examining adaptation and mitigation opportunities in the context of the integrated watershed management programme of the Government of India

India occupies 2.4% of the world’s geographical area with a large percentage of its land under agriculture. About 228 Million hectares (Mha) of its geographical area (nearly 69%) fall within the dryland (arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid) region. Of the total cultivated area of 142 Mha, major part of agriculture in the country is rainfed, extending to over 97 Mha and constituting nearly 68% of the net cultivated area, therefore making the agricultural sector vulnerable and exposed to the vagaries of weather conditions. Climate change adds to this dimension of stress. A strong need is felt for targeting programmes in these areas that address issues related to employing suitable soil and water conservation measures. In this context this paper seeks to examine the case for watershed development as an adaptive strategy. An examination of the possibility of fortifying the existing programme with a view to adapting to expected changes in climate in future is undertaken. Also, the possibility of watershed development integrating into a suitable mitigation strategy for the country is assessed.

Tropical deforestation in a future international climate policy regime—lessons from the Brazilian Amazon

The possibility of adopting national targets for carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from tropical deforestation in a future international climate treaty has received increasing attention recently. This attention has been prompted by proposals to this end and more intensified talks on possible commitments for developing countries beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol. We analyze four main scientific and political challenges associated with national targets for emissions from tropical deforestation: (1) reducing the uncertainties in emission inventories, (2) preserving the environmental integrity of the treaty, (3) promoting political acceptance and participation in the regime, and (4) providing economic incentives for reduced deforestation. We draw the following conclusions. (1) Although there are large uncertainties in carbon flux from deforestation, these are in the same range as for other emissions included in the current Kyoto protocol (i.e., non-CO₂ GHGs), and they can be reduced. However, for forest degradation processes the uncertainties are larger. A large challenge lies in building competence and institutions for monitoring the full spectrum of land use changes in developing countries. (2 and 3) Setting targets for deforestation is difficult, and uncertainties in future emissions imply a risk of creating ‘tropical hot air’. However, there are proposals that may sufficiently deal with this, and these proposals may also have the advantage of making the targets more attractive, politically speaking. Moreover, we conclude that while a full carbon accounting system will likely be politically unacceptable for tropical countries, the current carbon accounting system should be broadened to include forest degradation in order to safeguard environmental integrity. (4) Doubts can be cast over the possible effect a climate regime alone will have on deforestation rates, though little thorough analysis of this issue has been made.

Assessing the potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in intensively managed annual cropping systems at the regional scale

We predicted changes in yields and direct net soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes from converting conventional to alternative management practices across one of the world's most productive agricultural regions, the Central Valley of California, using the DAYCENT model. Alternative practices included conservation tillage, winter cover cropping, manure application, a 25% reduction in N fertilizer input and combinations of these. Alternative practices were evaluated for all unique combinations of crop rotation, climate, and soil types for the period 1997-2006. The crops included were alfalfa, corn, cotton, melon, safflower, sunflower, tomato, and wheat. Our predictions indicate that, adopting alternative management practices would decrease yields up to 5%. Changes in modeled SOC and net soil GHG fluxes corresponded to values reported in the literature. Average potential reductions of net soil GHG fluxes with alternative practices ranged from −0.7 to −3.3 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the Sacramento Valley and −0.5 to −2.5 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for the San Joaquin Valley. While adopting a single alternative practice led to modest net soil GHG flux reductions (on average −1 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹), combining two or more of these practices led to greater decreases in net soil GHG fluxes of up to −3 Mg CO₂-eq ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. At the regional scale, the combination of winter cover cropping with manure application was particularly efficient in reducing GHG emissions. However, GHG mitigation potentials were mostly non-permanent because 60-80% of the decreases in net soil GHG fluxes were attributed to increases in SOC, except for the reduced fertilizer input practice, where reductions were mainly attributed to decreased N₂O emissions. In conclusion, there are long-term GHG mitigation potentials within agriculture, but spatial and temporal aggregation will be necessary to reduce uncertainties around GHG emission reductions and the delivery risk of the associated C credits.     

Improvement of soil aggregate stability by repeated applications of organic amendments to a cultivated silty loam soil

The objective of this study was to compare the effects of repeated field applications of three urban compost amendments and one farmyard manure amendment over a 9-year period on aggregate stability in a silty loam soil initially characterized by low clay and initial organic matter contents and poor aggregate stability. Three different aggregate stability tests with increasing disruptive intensities (fast wetting > mechanical breakdown > slow wetting tests) and different disaggregation mechanisms, were used. All of the amendments, which were applied at approximately 4 Mg C ha⁻¹ every other year, increased the organic carbon content and improved the stability of the aggregates against the disruptive action of water, as determined by each of the stability tests. However, the year-to-year variations in the aggregate stability that related to factors other than the organic inputs were greater than the cumulative increase in aggregate stability relative to the control. The positive effects of the tested amendments on aggregate stability were linked to their contribution to soil organic C contents (r = 0.54 for the fast wetting test and r = 0.41-0.42 for the mechanical breakdown and slow wetting tests; p < 0.05). The addition of urban composts had a larger positive effect on aggregate stability than farmyard manure at the majority of sampling dates. The addition of biodegradable immature compost, such as municipal solid waste (MSW), improved the aggregate stability through an enhanced resistance to slaking. The addition of mature composts, such as the co-compost of sewage sludge and green wastes (GWS) or biowaste compost (BW), improved the aggregate stability by increasing interparticular cohesion. The MSW compost was the most efficient in improving aggregate stability during the first 6 years of the experiment (average improvements of +22%, +5% and +28% in the fast wetting, mechanical breakdown and slow wetting tests, respectively, compared to the control treatment); this result was likely due to the larger labile organic pool of the MSW compost that was highly effective at stimulating soil microbial activity. After the first 6 years, the two other composts, GWS and BW, became more efficient (average improvements of +25%, +61% and +33% in the fast wetting, mechanical breakdown and slow wetting tests, respectively, compared to the control treatment), which was probably linked to the greater increase in soil organic C contents. Therefore, the application of urban compost to silty soil that is susceptible to water erosion was effective at improving aggregate stability and thus could be used to enhance the resistance of soil to water erosion.     

Impact analysis of drought, water excess and salinity on grass production in The Netherlands using historical and future climate data

The coupled SWAP-WOFOST model was used to study the effects of increasing salinity of groundwater, drought and water excess on grass production in The Netherlands. WOFOST simulates crop growth and SWAP simulates transport of water, solutes and heat in the vadose zone. The model was tested using several datasets from field experiments. We applied the models at regional scale where we quantified the impact of various groundwater salinity levels on grass growth and production using historical weather data (1971-2000). The salt concentrations in the subsoil were derived from the National Hydrological Instrument. The results show that salinity effects on grass production are limited. In wet years the excess rainfall will infiltrate the soil and reduce salt water seepage. In a next step we used future weather data for the year 2050, derived from 3 Global Circulation Models. From each model we used data from two CO₂ emission scenarios. As expected higher temperatures increased drought stress, however, the production reduction as a result of salt water in the root zone is limited. Salt stress mainly occurred when irrigation was applied with saline water. The increased CO₂ concentration in combination with the limited drought stress resulted in increasing simulated actual and potential yields. Overall conclusion for grassland in The Netherlands: drought stress is stronger than stress caused by water excess which on its turn is stronger than salinity stress. Future water demand for irrigation may increase by 11-19% and result in water scarcity if water supply is insufficient.     

The evolution of climate policies - the role of learning and evaluations

All member states of the EU have had to develop climate strategies following the commitment to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. The evolution of the strategies provides insights into the learning that takes place at the level of policy development and offers material for analysing how ex ante and ex post evaluations have contributed to this learning. In the analysis, Finland is used as a case demonstrating different levels and types of learning, from deeper reframing to political learning. The results show that the full potential of the evaluations has not been utilised, partly because they have been constrained by their mandate. Greater openness and transparency in the policy processes would create favourable conditions for independent evaluations that could provide additional input to the policy processes. This would support social and reflexive learning and allow for greater adaptability.     

Carbon footprint of food - approaches from national input-output statistics and a LCA of a food portion

The aim of the study, on which this paper is based, was to provide guidance to consumers to make environmentally responsible choices in their food consumption, to assist food supply chain stakeholders to identify the key areas for environmental improvements, and to provide policy makers with a tool for monitoring the potential impacts on climate change resulting from developments within the food sector. At the macro level, the EIO-LCA model was developed specifically for the Finnish food chain; at the micro level, LCAs were performed on 30 lunch portions. The contribution of the Finnish food chain to climate change was 14%, which comprised 40% CO₂ emissions, 25% CH₄ emissions, and 34% N₂O emissions. The share of impacts from domestic agricultural processes was the highest, at 69%. The impact of a single lunch portion ranged between 0.65 and 3.80 kg of equivalent CO₂. According to the EIO-LCA model, the average impact was 7.7 kg CO₂ eq/person daily. The consumer phase accounted for between 8 and 47% of the climate change impacts for homemade portions. In ready-to-eat portions industry and retail phases were emphasized, representing 25-38% of climate change impacts. We present an approach to steer the Finnish food sector onto an environmentally sustainable path; practical tools for consumers and farmers will especially need to be developed further.     

沈阳市"十二五"期间NOx总量控制对策与建议

在分析沈阳市NOx排放现状及发展趋势基础上,针对NOx总量控制工作中存在基础薄弱、污染物增量大、治理技术上存在不确定因素等实际问题,总结了"增量控制,存量削减"的总体工作思路,并提出了实施电力企业脱硝工程改造的对策和建议.