驱动数据对流域水文模拟中不同结果要素的影响

流域水循环中各要素之间高度的非线性关系,使得驱动数据对模拟结果的影响研究变得复杂。结合站点实测和遥感的降水、温度和潜在蒸散发驱动数据,构建了叶尔羌河流域的8个MIKE SHE模型;根据方差分析模型（ANOVA）对模型“输入”与“输出”之间显著性影响检验的结果,以积融雪过程为例,剖析了驱动数据影响的具体表现。结果表明：相比站点数据,TRMM降水驱动的模型导致积雪输出的空间分布差异性更加明显;MODIS温度数据驱动的模型导致了中低山区的永久性薄层积雪覆盖更广,而高山区的储雪量更少;遥感蒸散发驱动的模型在积雪模拟方面并无显著差异。ANOVA对水文系统中要素之间的显著性假设检验,可为明晰驱动数据对水文过程的具体影响方式提供重要前提。     

Are we leaving the community out of rural community sustainability?

SUMMARY

The Rio Earth Summit and publication and distribution of Agenda 21 (UN, 1992) have generated much activity in many nations towards development and implementation of community indicators of sustainable development (SI). In recent years efforts at development and implementation of SI have intensified at regional and urban government levels, although fewer efforts are evident at a rural community level. In response to initial ad hoc efforts, methodologies for SI construction are currently being proposed, tested and refined. Within this evolutionary process, increasing recognition is being given to the critical need for, and importance of, ‘stakeholder’ involvement in SI development and implementation. This paper critically reviews these and related efforts from the perspective of rural communities in Canada. The argument is presented that the process of development and implementation of rural community-level SI can significantly benefit from development and implementation of a methodological approach in support of principles and practices of effective stakeholder involvement. It is further argued that development of SI must be stakeholder-driven, and that a pivotal element in the SI development process is the facilitation of information sharing. The paper concludes with a proposal for an approach to stakeholder participation and information sharing achieved through research, testing and refinement, and integration of these concepts within the process of rural community sustainable indicator development.     

The impact of flooding on property prices: A repeat-sales approach

In this paper we use a repeat-sales model to analyse the price path of properties affected by flooding in England between 1995 and 2014. Our dataset contains information on 4.8 million houses with at least one repeat-sale. This database is merged with high-definition GIS data delineating the spatial extent of all recorded flood incidents in England covering a total area of 2,654 km². Our results show that immediately after a flood event the price of property in a postcode entirely inundated by inland flooding is on average 24.9% lower than non-flooded property, whereas for property in a postcode entirely inundated by coastal flooding the price reduction is 21.1%. Nonetheless, we find that this discount is short-lived and the discount is no longer statistically significant for properties affected by inland flooding after 5 years, which falls to just 4 years for properties affected by coastal flooding. For lower-priced properties however, the post-flood price discount can be observed up to 6–7 years for both inland and coastal flooding. The magnitude of the impact also depends on the characteristics of the properties, the characteristics of the flood and the existence of flood protection assets.     

Global Climate Talks from Failure to Cooperation and Hope: Swedish News Framings of COP15 and COP21

The purpose of this study is to offer an analysis of how two UN Conferences of Parties, COP15 in Copenhagen 2009 and COP21 in Paris 2015, were covered and debated in Swedish newspapers. Two national and two regional newspapers were selected for the study, and a qualitative frame analysis was conducted on 309 articles. A typology of frames applicable to science-related policy and climate change debates was used and its relevance for global climate summit context was discussed. Having territory in the Arctic region, indigenous populations affected by climate change measures, and political and public sensitivity to environmental issues, the climate debate has particular significance in the Swedish case. Findings indicate a trust in the role of national and supra-national governance to address climate change problems, but also that newspapers in Sweden maintained a focus on the global aspects of the two meetings, rather than framing them as surrogate battlefields for domestic politics.     

试论二十一世纪高校体育师资的素质问题

二十一世纪高校体育师资的综合素质提出了更新、更高、更全面的要求,体育老师要跟上时代的步伐,适应现代体育改革与发展的需要就必须进一步提高自身的素质,这是未来高校体育工作的基础和关键.     

1999年9月21日台湾7.6级大震预报讨论

介绍了用三性法（周期性,公度性,黄金分割性）对１９９９年９月２１日台湾７．６级大震的三要素预报,并用构造分段公式,“静中动判据”补充作了讨论。鉴于短监预报的重要,我们还用样暴倍九律,即预滑－磁暴－天气韵律模式对９．２１大震的发震日期的预报作了讨论。     

Sensitivity of Stream flow and Water Table Depth to Potential Climatic Variability in a Coastal Forested Watershed1

Dai, Zhaohua, Carl C. Trettin, Changsheng Li, Devendra M. Amatya, Ge Sun, and Harbin Li, 2010. Sensitivity of Streamflow and Water Table Depth to Potential Climatic Variability in a Coastal Forested Watershed. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–13. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00474.x Abstract: A physically based distributed hydrological model, MIKE SHE, was used to evaluate the effects of altered temperature and precipitation regimes on the streamflow and water table in a forested watershed on the southeastern Atlantic coastal plain. The model calibration and validation against both streamflow and water table depth showed that the MIKE SHE was applicable for predicting the streamflow and water table dynamics for this watershed with an acceptable model efficiency (E > 0.5 for daily streamflow and >0.75 for monthly streamflow). The simulation results from changing temperature and precipitation scenarios indicate that climate change influences both streamflow and water table in the forested watershed. Compared to current climate conditions, the annual average streamflow increased or decreased by 2.4% with one percentage increase or decrease in precipitation; a quadratic polynomial relationship between changes in water table depth (cm) and precipitation (%) was found. The annual average water table depth and annual average streamflow linearly decreased with an increase in temperature within the range of temperature change scenarios (0-6°C). The simulation results from the potential climate change scenarios indicate that future climate change will substantially impact the hydrological regime of upland and wetland forests on the coastal plain with corresponding implications to altered ecosystem functions that are dependent on water.     

Private capital: What impedes its entry into China's minerals industry

The paper commences with an analysis of the nature and status of private capital investment in the minerals industry in China. Based on the analysis, the authors examine the main barriers in terms of the mineral rights market, industry access and investment security that impede the participation of private capital into exploration and development of China's mineral resources. The discussion addresses how to encourage the participation of private capital into mining investment and it concludes that it is of significant importance to ensure the soundness of mineral rights market, impartiality of industry access, and security of mineral rights.