Is Multilateralism the Future? Sustainable Development or Globalisation as ‘A Comprehensive Vision of the Future of Humanity’

This paper provides an overall evaluation of the outcomes of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), which took place in Johannesburg from 26 August to 4 September 2002, in a historical perspective, against the background of earlier major United Nations conferences and General Assembly resolutions on environment and development. It focuses on the political and institutional context of the WSSD and its preparatory process and explores its policy implications for future international cooperation on sustainable development in a globalizing world. Both the results of the formal intergovernmental negotiations and the new phenomenon of partnerships for sustainable development between governments, international organizations, the private sector and other major groups are analysed. The Johannesburg Declaration and the WSSD Plan of Implementation are shown to contain little in the way of political vision, credible new commitments and innovative approaches, likely to reinvigorate the implementation of the objectives of sustainable development as formulated in Rio. Though ostensibly designed to give a new political impetus to multilateralism, the WSSD rather revealed the inadequacy of intergovernmental political governance structures to address the social and environmental consequences of economic globalization.     

A chromosome 21-specific cosmid cocktail for the detection of chromosome 21 aberrations in interphase nuclei

Fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) with a 21q11-specific probe (CB21c1) consisting of three non-overlapping cosmids has been applied to interphase amniocytes of pregnancies at increased risk for fetal aneuploidy (N = 78) and to interphase lymphocytes, cultured and uncultured, of patients referred for Down syndrome (N = 19 and 28, respectively). In the uncultured amniocytes, six chromosome aberrations were detected: three cases of trisomy 21, a triploidy, a de novo 46,XX,t(21q21q), and a mosaic 46,XY/47,XY,+dic(21)(q11)/48,XY,+dic(21)(q11), +del(21)(q11). In 15 cultured and 20 uncultured blood samples, FISH correctly diagnosed trisomy 21 (full or mosaic) at the interphase level, which was confirmed in all cases by subsequent karyotyping. Because of specific and strong signals in interphase nuclei, CB21c1 appears to be a useful tool for the rapid detection of chromosome 21 abnormalities.     

Alkaline phosphatase activity in amniotic fluid in pregnancies with fetal disorders

Alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity was determined in 255 amniotic fluid samples collected by amniocentesis between 15 and 39 weeks of gestation. The samples were originally used for chromosomal analysis and/or alpha-fetoprotein measurements. The mean ALP activity in early amniotic fluid from pregnancies with fetal trisomy 18 and 21 syndromes was half of that found in the controls. Highly elevated ALP activity (over 10 times the median level) was found in 14 samples. Two of these pregnancies had normal outcome. Three samples were from pregnancies with intrauterine fetal death. Fetal disorders, including abdominal wall defect (four cases), Meckel's syndrome (two), hydrops fetalis syndrome (two) and genital anomaly (one), were observed in nine cases. Moderately elevated ALP activity (over three times the median) was found in 10 cases, including five pregnancies with a preterm labour shortly after the sample collection. The results indicate that elevated ALP activity in the third trimester amniotic fluid is often associated with fetal disorders.     

Comparing petroleum fiscal regimes under oil price uncertainty

This study investigates and compares five upstream petroleum fiscal systems under crude oil price uncertainty. The fiscal systems analyzed are: the Alberta Canada tax and royalty system, the Papua New Guinea (PNG) (pre-2003) traditional Rate of Return (ROR) system, the Sao Tome and Principe/Nigerian Joint Development Zone (SNJDZ) Production Sharing Contract (PSC), the Tanzanian PSC/ROR hybrid system and the Trinidad and Tobago PSC. Contingent claims analysis is used to value the governments’ tax claims under uncertainty using a numerical approach, viz., Monte Carlo simulation. Each system is tested to obtain the after-tax value accruing to firms as well as the distortionary effects introduced by the fiscal systems. The results are then ranked. The Alberta Canada and PNG fiscal systems provide companies with the highest after-tax values while also being the least distortionary. The Tanzanian system is the lowest in both rankings, providing relatively low after-tax values and introducing strong distortionary effects. The SNJDZ PSC imposed a relatively high tax burden on companies with median distortionary effects. The Trinidadian PSC generated a median tax burden on companies but has strong distortionary effects.     

SWAT与MIKE21耦合模型及其在澎溪河流域的应用

结合SWAT分布式模型研究污染负荷的优势和MIKE21模型对水动力水质先进的模拟技术,构建SWAT与MIKE21耦合模型。根据澎溪河地形、土壤、植被、气象、水文、水质资料,在空间上建立流域SWAT水文单元与MIKE21水动力模型边界的连接,在量值上建立SWAT模型各水文单元污染物负荷输出量与MIKE21模型污染浓度输入量之间的分配关系,研究澎溪河流域输沙量、氮、磷负荷量和水污染。模拟结果表明：2009年3月至2010年3月澎溪河渠马、高阳、黄石、双江大桥4个断面的总氮、总磷浓度和叶绿素a含量的模拟值与实测值具有较好的一致性,澎溪河回水区水质为中营养~中富营养状态,水体氮、磷等营养盐浓度主要受面源污染的影响。SWAT与MIKE21耦合模型可靠性好,适合于流域水污染研究     

基于MIKE11模型入河水污染源处理措施的控制效能分析

为分析入河水污染源不同处理措施的控制效能,以中国多闸坝重污染河流的典型代表—涡河为例,针对"引江济淮"工程涡河段的水质改善需求,以涡河主要污染物COD、氨氮为指标,应用MIKE 11模型建立能客观反映模拟河段水动力、水质时空演变规律的模型;结合情景分析方法对涡河流域入河水污染源不同处理措施的控制效能进行量化评估.模拟结果表明:截污是改善"引江济淮"工程涡河段水质的关键,可降低约18.9%~36.8%的COD入河负荷,以及13.9%~26.3%的氨氮入河负荷;提高污水厂的处理量是改善"引江济淮"工程涡河段水质的有效措施,可削减15.0%的COD和10.8%的氨氮污染;综合处理措施优于单一措施,通过截污、提高污水厂的处理量和排放标准可以使86%以上的河段达到IV类水体要求.本研究结果可为"引江济淮"工程沿线的水污染防治提供技术支持,同时为河流综合治理工程决策提供借鉴和依据.     

基于MIKE 11模型的引江济淮工程涡河段动态水环境容量研究

为探索分析水体环境容量的动态特性,论文以引江济淮工程涡河段为例,首次提出MIKE 11模型结合稀释流量比m值法计算河流水环境容量。计算结果表明:1)基于MIKE 11模型的m值法计算环境容量来分析河流水体环境容量的动态特性是可行的,它综合了环境管理中的总量控制和质量控制思想。2)通过对参数的合理取值,可建立客观反映模拟河段水动力、水质时空演变规律的模型;MIKE 11模型综合考虑河床糙度、纵向扩散系数、综合衰减系数、地表储水层最大含水量、土壤或根区储水层最大含水量等因素,水深的绝对误差(Re)、确定性系数(R2)和Nash-Suttcliffe系数Ens分别为3.30%、0.990和0.984;流量的Re、R2和Ens分别为9.8%、0.969和0.997;义门大桥断面COD模拟误差为13.7%,氨氮模拟误差为14.7%。3)基于MIKE 11模型的m值法计算谯城区COD的月均环境容量为-220.48 g/s、氨氮的月均环境容量为-10.97 g/s;涡阳县COD的月均环境容量为-17.05 g/s、氨氮的月均环境容量为2.56 g/s;蒙城县COD的月均环境容量为30.58 g/s、氨氮的月均环境容量为4.47 g/s;怀远县COD的月均环境容量为176.59 g/s、氨氮的月均环境容量为10.67 g/s;与传统的一维模型计算值相比,计算精度更高。结论认为,此方法可为MIKE 11模型的应用拓宽新思路,为引江济淮工程中河流水体的动态水环境容量计算提供依据,为污染物在横断面均匀混合的非感潮河流水体的环境容量计算和流域水污染治理提供一种新的技术方法。     

环境战略的新发展

论文指出,环境战略从环境领域延伸到经济社会领域,将发展下环境作为一个整体对待,环境战略重点从污染防治转向资源和生态系统的保护,污染防治从尾端治理转向发展清洁生产,即从产业规划、产品规划,技术和工艺开发,产品设计,废物的综合利用和合理处理实行全过程的管理;从发展经济消除贫困寻求保护生态环境的正确道路,切断“贫困－过度开发自然资源－生态环境恶化－自然灾害加剧－更加贫困”的恶性循环,中国环境战略应与全球     

基于MIKE耦合模型的入河污染模拟与控制效能研究

为解决沙河水库流域河道水质差、水环境退化等问题,以主要超标污染物CODCr、NH3-N和TP为指标,应用MIKE 11、MIKE SHE及ECO Lab构建流域水文水动力及水质耦合模型,探究污染物的迁移转化规律,并进一步评估不同控制措施下的河道水质改善效能.研究表明:耦合模型在研究区具有良好的适应性,水动力模拟精度良好...