Nutrient criteria for lakes,ponds, and reservoirs: A Bayesian TREED model approach

We develop regional-scale eutrophication models for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs to investigate the link between nutrients and chlorophyll-a. The Bayesian TREED (BTREED) model approach allows association of multiple environmental stressors with biological responses, and quantification of uncertainty sources in the empirical water quality model. Nutrient data for lakes, ponds, and reservoirs across the United States were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Nutrient Criteria Database. The nutrient data consist of measurements for both stressor variables (such as total nitrogen and total phosphorus), and response variables (such as chlorophyll-a), used in the BTREED model. Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) posterior exploration guides a stochastic search through a rich suite of candidate trees toward models that better fit the data. The Bayes factor provides a goodness of fit criterion for comparison of resultant models. We randomly split the data into training and test sets; the training data were used in model estimation, and the test data were used to evaluate out-of-sample predictive performance of the model. An average relative efficiency of 1.02 between the training and test data for the four highest log-likelihood models suggests good out-of-sample predictive performance. Reduced model uncertainty relative to over-parameterized alternative models makes the BTREED models useful for nutrient criteria development, providing the link between nutrient stressors and meaningful eutrophication response.     

Establishment of Markov successional model and its application for forest restoration reference in Southern China

Forest succession is the base of establishing restoration reference which plays an important role in forest restoration and restoration estimation. The study presented the establishment of a Markov successional model (MSM) and its application to restoration reference in lower subtropical forest in China. The compositions of successional system in MSM were divided into three species types: pioneering pine trees, heliophytic trees and mesophytic trees. The successional system was divided into three subsystems: early successional stage, mid-successional stage and late-successional stage. Based on the site survey on the changes in the species and their individuals in 25 years, the transition matrices in various subsystems were determined. The predicted results were used to establish the restoration reference of the vegetation restoration in lower subtropical China. According to the ecological restoration reference established in this study, it would take 150 years for the forest to change from pioneer to mature communities in the region. Successional change of tree composition was forecast by the model, and the scenario forecast by the model reflects the actual conditions observed through 52 years of long-term permanent site research. The restoration experience in the region matches the forecast results. The application of a restoration reference model indicates that forest restoration can be accelerated by taking measures which change forest structure. The above results imply that a restoration reference established on the rule of regional forest succession could be very useful not only in directing, but also in assessing and managing regional forest restoration. Previously, one “ideal reference ecosystem” was used as a restoration reference in all correlative studies. In this study, the restoration “process” was used as the restoration reference.     

Fragmentation profiles for real and simulated landscapes

When a natural landscape is represented by a series of categorical raster maps of varying resolution, a multiresolution characterization of spatial pattern can be obtained in which entropy is computed at each resolution conditional on the next coarser resolution. The series of entropy values is plotted as a function of resolution, resulting in a multiresolution profile of fragmentation pattern in the landscape. If a categorical raster map is available at a single resolution only, a series of degraded maps at increasingly coarser resolutions is generated and the fragmentation profile is computed for this series. An algorithm has been developed for obtaining the profile directly from the single resolution map without having to generate and store the coarser resolution maps. A hierarchical stochastic model is described for simulating categorical raster maps and the fragmentation profile of the generating process is obtained in terms of the model parameters. These process profiles provide benchmarks for assessing empirical profiles obtained from raster maps of actual landscapes. Methods of the paper are applied to several watersheds of Pennsylvania using landcover maps derived from satellite imagery. These examples indicate that characteristic landscape types induce characteristic features in their fragmentation profiles.     

环境放射性研究现状

本文主要评述环境放射性研究的现状及进展，包括环境放射性的来源，环境中放射性核素的种类以及它们在食物链中的转移，并讨论了环境放射性研究的新动向。     

可重组制造系统降级运作的可靠性分析

作为一种全新的制造系统类型,笔者对可重组制造系统的一种降级运作模式进行系统整体性能和可靠性的分析与研究。针对可重组制造系统中可能存在非关键设备失效的情况,在选取系统中存在单台关键设备的条件下,建立可重组制造系统在一定时期内降级运作的有效性模型。应用马尔可夫可靠性模型对系统不同的运行状态推导出转换方程,对系统的生产率和有效性两大指标进行计算和分析。通过对系统正常状态和降级状态的有效度和生产率的比较,得出了系统存在降级运行模式时,比系统全部由关键设备组合的运行模式具有更高的生产率和有效度,并在一定条件下,系统有效度比生产率增加更快的两大结论。     

基于层次分析法的油锯伐木安全作业多目标评价

本文采用层次分析法(AHP)对影响油锯伐木作业的各种因素进行综合评价.通过比较矩阵计算各子指标权向量和组合权向量,得到各指标影响油锯伐木作业安全的权重排序表,从而为完善油锯伐木安全作业管理提供了科学依据.     

新疆棉花生态产业链构建研究

根据工业生态学原理,以新疆沙雅县为例,通过分析当地棉花产业的发展现状,研究构建了沙雅县棉花生态产业链,对于当地产业结构调整和农民增收具有重要的现实意义。     

青岛市完善循环经济产业链——解决历史遗留“五大废渣”难题

困扰青岛市的环境污染难题“五大渣”——铬渣、白泥、钢渣、粉煤灰、电石泥,通过发展循环经济,不但成功解决了污染问题,并且在钢厂、碱厂、化工厂、发电厂和建材厂之间,建立了以废物为纽带的具有青岛特色的跨行业、区域性的循环经济发展模式,为老工业基地的经济结构调整,落实青岛市战略发展规划打下了很好的基础。     

免疫磁珠分离与实时定量PCR技术联合检测水中轮状病毒的研究

建立了一种免疫磁珠分离技术联合实时定量PCR快速定量检测水中轮状病毒的方法.通过制备能够分离水中轮状病毒的特异免疫磁珠,优化分离条件,建立了免疫磁珠分离前处理方法,并与逆转录、实时定量PCR结合,成功用于水中轮状病毒的检测.研究发现,在1 mL水样中加入10 μL轮状病毒免疫磁珠、0.25 μL Tween 20、孵育2 h可达到较好的分离效果;免疫磁珠可用于3%牛肉浸膏等常用病毒洗脱液中的轮状病毒的分离,表明该分离技术能与已有的病毒浓集方法良好地整合.免疫磁珠分离技术与实时定量PCR联合用于检测水中轮状病毒,全过程需时约5 h,检测限为1×10⁴　copies/mL(相当于3～4　PFU/mＬ),检测结果与细胞病变试验检测结果有良好的线性相关关系（R²=0.981 6）,表明其能较好地表征水样的病毒感染风险.对接种已知量的轮状病毒的污水处理厂二级出水、再生水、地表水、自来水等水样的实验表明,该法可用于各种水样中轮状病毒的检测.