MASS BALANCE MODEL ESTIMATION OF PHOSPHORUS CONCENTRATIONS IN RESERVOIRS1

ABSTRACT: Mass balance models have been common tools in lake quality management for some years. However, verification for use on reservoirs, especially in the Western United States, has been seriously lacking, In this study, such a verification is attempted using data from the U.S EPA National Eutrophication Survey. Several models from the literature are compared for accuracy in application to the western reservoir data. Model standard error and correlation between estimated and observed reservoir phosphorus concentrations are the Criteria used for comparison. Standard errors am further used to calculate uncertainty of trophic state classification based on estimated phosphorus concentration. The model proposed by Dillon and Rigler (1974) proved most accurate, with a correlation coefficient of 0.86 and standard error of 0.2, based on logarithmic transformed values. Deficiencies in the other models appear to & from coefficients fit to lake data and from inappropriate model formulation.     

SEEPAGE FLOW INTO FLORIDA LAKES1

ABSTRACT: Direct measurements indicate that subsurface seepage in the littoral zone contributed 17.5 and 2.0 percent of the total hydraulic inputs, respectively, to Lakes Conway and Apopka, Florida. Two variations of seepage measuring devices were evaluated and gave relative standard deviations of 7 and 24 percent. Measurement inaccuracies were minimized by using large diameter (0.9 cm ID) plastic tubing. For a given transect perpendicular to shore, flow patterns were reproducible over time. Seepage flows ranged from 0 to 112 1/m²-day and most were between 4 and 30 1/m²-day. The detection limit was about 0.2 1/m²-day for a one-hour collection period. Seepage occured primarily within 30 m of shore and generally decreased exponentially with distance from shore. The shape of the bottom profile influenced flow patterns; lake bottoms with steeper slopes had higher flows that were compressed within a narrower zone. After a short-term rain event at Lake Conway, seepage flows increased rapidly to 2.4 times the prerain flow for 1 h and decreased to near background within about 6 h.     

PREDICTION OF STREAM TEMPERATURE IN FORESTED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Removal of streamside vegetation changes the energy balance of a stream, and hence its temperature. A common approach to mitigating the effects of logging on stream temperature is to require establishment of buffer zones along stream corridors. A simple energy balance model is described for prediction of stream temperature in forested headwater watersheds that allows evaluation of the performance of such measures. The model is designed for application to “worst case” or maximum annual stream temperature, under low flow conditions with maximum annual solar radiation and air temperature. Low flows are estimated via a regional regression equation with independent variables readily accessible from GIS databases. Testing of the energy balance model was performed using field data for mostly forested basins on both the west and east slopes of the Cascade Mountains, and was then evaluated using the regional equations for low flow and observed maximum reach temperatures in three different east slope Cascades catchments. A series of sensitivity analyses showed that increasing the buffer width beyond 30 meters did not significantly decrease stream temperatures, and that other vegetation parameters such as leaf area index, average tree height, and to a lesser extent streamside vegetation buffer width, more strongly affected maximum stream temperatures.     

Nitrogen Balance in the Lower Fraser River Basin of British Columbia

/ A study was conducted to determine the extent of nitrogenpollution in agricultural lands in the Lower Fraser River basin of BritishColumbia, Canada. The specific objectives were to determine the distributionof leachable nitrogenand estimate the nitrogen concentration in groundwaterrecharges. Nitrogen and water mass balances were conducted on the entirebasin and on each of the four districts comprising it over the period1971-1991 in intervals of five years. The results indicated that the averagenitrogen concentration in the groundwater recharge for the entire basin rosefrom nondetectable in 1971 to 6 mg/liter in 1991. Estimates for theindividual districts ranged from 4 to 14 mg/liter in Central Fraser and fromnondetectable to 7 mg/liter in Fraser-Cheam and 3 mg/liter in both GreaterVancouver and Dewdney-Alouette. So far, excessive levels of nitrogen areconfined to Central Fraser. Although they have remained within the acceptablerange, nitrogen concentrations in the other three districts have definitelyincreased over the 20-year study period. Sensitivity analyses indicated thatanimal manure and fertilizer had the largest contribution in groundwaterrecharge. Decreasing the rate of manure application to agricultural lands issuggested as the most practical way of reducing nitrogen pollution in CentralFraser.KEY WORDS: Nitrogen balance; Water balance; Sensitivity analysis     

IMPROVEMENT OF LEACHATE PREDICTION THROUGH MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE LAYERS1

ABSTRACT: Existing leachate prediction models over- or underestimate leachate generation by up to three orders of magnitude. Practical experiments show that channeled flow in waste leads to rapid discharge of large leachate volumes and heterogeneous moisture distributions. In order to more accurately predict leachate generation, leachate models must be improved. To predict moisture movement through waste, the one-domain water balance model HELP, and two-domain PREFLO, are tested. Experimental waste and leachate flow values are compared with model predictions. When calibrated with experimental parameters, the HELP model yields reasonable predictions of cumulative leachate flow and PREFLO provides estimates of breakthrough time. In the short term, field capacity has to be reduced to 0.12 and effective storage and hydraulic conductivity of the waste must be increased to 0.2 and 2.2 cm/s respectively. In the long term, a new modeling approach must be developed to adequately describe the moisture movement mechanisms.     

加强环境管理 促进经济发展

本文论述了环境管理与经济发展的辨证关系；指出环境管理的的核心是使经济环境协调发展，环境管理必须遵从生态规律和经济规律，并提出了在改革中加强环境管理促进经济发展的措施。     

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELED SURPLUS AND USGS-MEASURED DISCHARGE IN LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN BASIN,LOUISIANA1

ABSTRACT: A one-layer decreasing-availability monthly water balance model is used to estimate monthly surplus that flows into the Lake Pontchartrain Basin from the Amite, Tickfaw, Natalbany, Tangipahoa, and Tchefuncte Rivers for water years 1949 through 1990. The modeled annual surplus for each drainage basin is compared to gauged annual discharge obtained from the United States Geological Survey. This provides an estimate of the differential success of the model over watersheds of various sizes, and also suggests appropriate adjustment factors to be used in future water balance analyses of similar basins in humid subtropical climate regions. Results show that annual surplus values agree well with the USGS values, after an annual adjustment of about 140 mm (11 to 28 percent of the basin surplus) is subtracted from the annual modeled totals to compensate for overestimation by the model. However, inter-annual variability is high in the annual cycles. Winter and spring discharges can also be modeled successfully.     

GROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION BY NEMATICIDES: INFLUENCE OF RECHARGE TIMING UNDER PINEAPPLE CROP1

ABSTRACT: Toxic organic compounds, such as DBCP, EDB, and c TCP, that are associated with pineapple cultivation in Hawaii have been discovered in drinking water wells on Oahu. In order to reach and contaminate the Pearl Harbor aquifer, pesticides must be transported quickly downward away from the soil surface prior to complete volatilization, degradation, or adsorption of residuals. This paper assesses the role of pesticide application timing relative to subsequent rainfall-induced recharge events in determining the amount and extent of chemical leaching from the soil. A water balance model for a pineapple crop is developed to estimate the time series of recharge from two fields for which soil contamination profiles are available. In general, the amounts of DBCP, EDB, and TCP found in the soil profiles of the two fields are consistent with expectations of leaching based on an analysis of the recharge time series. The results indicate that recharge during and immediately following the application of pesticides is important in determining whether groundwater contamination will result.     

PATTERNS OF WATERSHED MONTHLY RUNOFF1

ABSTRACT: Two dimensional sliding polynomials were adapted to pattern analysis of watershed monthly rainfall and runoff. Contours of runoff in the two-dimensional space of time and rainfall are constructed on a grid of 16 nodes whose values are determined by least squares. This method is form free, hence derived patterns are not biased to selected functional forms, but can directly represent the smoothed data. Values of the nodes are localized averages of the data constrained by required mathematical continuity across the grid of values. An advantage of the method is that the standard deviation can be calculated for each node, thus producing patterns of uncertainty of the deterministic component revealed by the data.     

APPLICATION OF KRIGING TO ESTIMATING MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN A REGION OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE1

ABSTRACT: Estimates of mean annual precipitation (MAP) over areas are the starting point for all computations of water and chemical balances for drainage basins and surface water bodies. Any errors in the estimates of MAP are propagated through the balance computations. These errors can be due to: (1) failures of individual gages to collect the amount of precpitation that actually falls; (2) operator errors; and (3) failure of the raingage network to adequately sample the region of interest. This paper attempts to evaluate the last of these types of error by applying kriging in two different approaches to estimating MAP in New Hampshire and Vermont, USA. The data base is the 1951–1980 normal precipitation at 120 raingages in the two states and in adjacent portions of bordering states and provinces. In the first approach, kriging is applied directly to the MAP values, while in the second, kriging is applied to a “precipitation delivery factor” that represents the MAP with the orographic effect removed. The first approach gives slightly better kriged estimates of MAP at seven validation stations that were not included in the original analysis, but results in an error surface that is highly contorted and in larger maximum errors over most of the region. The second approach had a considerably smoother error surface and, thus, is generally preferable as a basis for point and areal estimates of MAP. MAP estimates in the region have 95 percent confidence intervals of about 20 cm/yr at low and moderate elevations, and up to 35 cm/yr at high elevations. These uncertainties amount to about 20 percent of estimated MAP values.