黄淮海平原冬小麦种植的气候变化适应评估

水资源短缺影响黄淮海平原农业稳定和可持续发展。气候变化情景下,农业用水紧张的问题可能进一步加剧,种植制度和作物品种区域布局将面临调整。论文利用IPCC 5三种代表性温室气体浓度排放路径（RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5）的多模式集成数据,基于VIP（soil-Vegetation-atmosphere Interface Processes）生态水文模型,模拟了2011—2059年黄淮海平原二级子流域的水资源盈亏变化。在此基础上,针对水分亏缺最严重的子流域,设计无外来调水和维持2000—2010年调水总量水平的两种流域地下水采补均衡情景,对冬小麦种植区域的合理布局及其对产量的影响进行评估。结果表明,2050年代黄淮海平原农作物蒸散量增幅大于降雨量增幅,北部地区水分亏缺量将增加,南部地区水分盈余量则减少。在低到高的排放情景下,全区域水分盈余量下降0.1%~14.1%。两种地下水采补均衡情景下,2050年代黄淮海平原冬小麦种植面积应分别减少9.8%~11.3%和7.0%~8.8%,相应产量分别增加0~11.9%和3.0%~15.9%。适当减少冬小麦种植面积,可有效减缓黄淮海地区农业水资源的不足,保护生态环境,促进农业可持续发展。     

区域农田畜禽承载量预测模型构建与应用:以赤峰市为例

为对区域现有生猪养殖数量的合理性进行评价及对生猪养殖承载量进行预测,从畜禽养殖-耕地-作物系统出发,基于农田养分平衡理论及有机和无机肥合理配施方法,构建区域农田畜禽承载量预测模型。以赤峰市为例,设定有机和无机肥配施比例为5∶5,并保持现有农田N或P2O5养分盈余量不变,分别基于N和P2O5养分盈余量不变实地应用该模型。结果表明,基于N时可新增生猪养殖数量43.6万头,承载量为630.8万头;基于P2O5时可新增生猪养殖数量369.3万头,承载量为1 041.3万头。位于西拉木伦河南岸的松山区、翁牛特旗、喀喇沁旗、宁城县和敖汉旗是可新增生猪养殖的主要区域。从环境压力角度考虑,推荐基于N的预测值作为计算赤峰市可新增生猪养殖量和承载量的依据。     

Organic matter balances in anaerobic digestors

Organic carbon and COD balances in a system of 12 anaerobic units operating at organic loading levels 0.4–0.8 kg COD/m³.d and hydraulic detention times 8–20 d resulted in a mean CH₄ production of 341 ml/g COD converted and a mean CH₄ + CO₂ production 1815 ml/g OC converted. The gas retained in the liquid anaerobic effluent was mainly carbon dioxide (94–98%).     

Ecological accounting: new tools for a sustainable culture

Ecological accounting is concerned with providing information to assist managers with performance appraisal, control, decision-making and reporting for an organisation or region. It is based on ecological concepts and on ecological measures and values in addition to the familiar economics ones. The implementation of sustainable development requires a cultural change and ecological accounting would represent a part of this change within both organisations and wider society. In many ways, ecological accounting could help bring sustainable development into common sense and give it a place as a day-to-day business goal.     

土地利用变化的水土资源平衡效应研究——以西辽河流域为例

北方农牧交错带作为我国传统农区与牧区的交汇和过渡地带,是我国东、中部地区的重要生态屏障地区。选取北方农牧交错带东缘的西辽河流域为案例区,运用遥感、地理信息系统等方法,构建水分亏缺模型,定量计算了西辽河流域不同土地利用情景下的水分亏缺态势,揭示了北方农牧交错带土地利用变化的水土资源平衡效应,研究表明:①1995-2005年,西辽河流域土地利用整体特征未发生重大改变,土地利用表现为耕地面积有所增加、草地面积相对减少的局面;②西辽河流域水土资源平衡总体呈现中度水分亏缺的特征,亏水量较大的区域相对集中在西辽河冲积平原中部地区;③1995-2005年10 a间的土地利用变化使得西辽河流域严重缺水地区面积增加1/4,水分亏缺态势进一步加剧。     

Accounting for Cadmium: Tracking Emissions of Cadmium From the Global Economy

This paper examines the flow of cadmium through the global economy, with the aim of quantifying emissions of cadmium into the environment as a result of anthropogenic activities. First, a materials balance methodology is presented as the most appropriate means of assessing cadmium emissions from a wide range of anthropogenic sources. This is then applied to the best available data, from a variety of sources, to arrive at estimated flows of cadmium. Results are presented for 10 geo-political world regions and for a range of economic activities including non-ferrous metals production, iron and steel production, combustion of fossil fuels, fertilizer manufacture and use, cement production and the manufacture, use and disposal of cadmium containing products. Initially, this analysis partitions the total flow of cadmium into three major categories: atmospheric emissions, water-borne effluents and solid or bulked waste arisings. the paper then suggests a probable further partition of the initial emissions into different environmental media.     

基于动态风险平衡的海洋平台事故连锁风险研究

针对海洋平台事故风险特点,提出动态风险平衡概念,以此建立事故动力模型,并将该模型运用到墨西哥湾"深水地平线"井喷事故。动态风险平衡表征事故动力与事故阻力之间的动态平衡状态,具有动态性和暂时稳定性。事故动力模型以海洋平台可能发生的重大事故为研究对象,从工艺、技术和管理等角度分析事故可能致因和事故发展可能影响因素。该模型首先分析对象的初始事故动力,建立事故连锁风险图,然后计算初始动力发生情况下,传递动力和传递阻力的概率分布,最后提出相应风险控制措施。实例分析表明,基于动态风险平衡建立的事故动力模型能有效分析海洋平台事故连锁风险。     

Numerical analysis of the effects of fluctuations of discharge capacity on transient flow field in gas well relief line

Transient gas flow in relief line is computed to determine the effects of fluctuations of discharge capacity on flow field. Based on the theories of computational fluid dynamics and aerodynamics, the solution and the analysis were carried out using finite volume CFD solver FLUENT 13.0. Flow fields in seven working conditions were simulated in the numerical investigation and their results were compared. The results showed that the fluctuations of discharge capacity, including extent and period, exert obvious effects on transient gas flow field in relief line. The larger the fluctuation extent and the shorter the fluctuation period, the more significant is the effect. The application method of simulation results is provided to guide the laying and fixing of pipelines, which is verified by filed measurement.     

Numerical analysis of phase behavior during rapid decompression of rich natural gases

The effect of the condensation process on the gas and liquid phase behavior during rapid decompression of rich natural gases is studied in the paper numerically. A one-dimensional mathematical model of transient thermal two-phase flow of compressible multi-component natural gas mixture and liquid phase in a shock tube is developed. The set of mass, momentum and enthalpy conservation equations are solved for the gas and liquid phases. The approach to model a liquid condensation process during rapid decompression of rich natural gas mixture is proposed. The mass transfer between the gas and the liquid is taken into account by introducing the appropriate terms into the governing equations. Thermo-physical properties of multi-component natural gas mixture are calculated by solving the Equation of State (EOS) in the form of the Soave–Redlich–Kwong (SRK-EOS) model. The proposed liquid condensation model is integrated into the GDP model. A simple case of GDP model, where the liquid was not considered, was extensively validated on base and dry natural gases. The proposed two-phase model is validated against the experiments where the decompression wave speed was measured in rich natural gases at low temperature. It shows a good agreement with the experimental data.     

Priority areas for conservation of Old World vultures

The prosperity and well-being of human societies relies on healthy ecosystems and the services they provide. However, the biodiversity crisis is undermining ecosystems services and functions. Vultures are among the most imperiled taxonomic groups on Earth, yet they have a fundamental ecosystem function. These obligate scavengers rapidly consume large amounts of carrion and human waste, a service that may aid in both disease prevention and control of mammalian scavengers, including feral dogs, which in turn threaten humans. We combined information about the distribution of all 15 vulture species found in Europe, Asia, and Africa with their threats and used detailed expert knowledge on threat intensity to prioritize critical areas for conserving vultures in Africa and Eurasia. Threats we identified included poisoning, mortality due to collision with wind energy infrastructures, and other anthropogenic activities related to human land use and influence. Areas important for vulture conservation were concentrated in southern and eastern Africa, South Asia, and the Iberian Peninsula, and over 80% of these areas were unprotected. Some vulture species required larger areas for protection than others. Finally, countries that had the largest share of all identified important priority areas for vulture conservation were those with the largest expenditures related to rabies burden (e.g., India, China, and Myanmar). Vulture populations have declined markedly in most of these countries. Restoring healthy vulture populations through targeted actions in the priority areas we identified may help restore the ecosystem services vultures provide, including sanitation and potentially prevention of diseases, such as rabies, a heavy burden afflicting fragile societies. Our findings may guide stakeholders to prioritize actions where they are needed most in order to achieve international goals for biodiversity conservation and sustainable development.