The impact of climate changes on mass events in China

There is an increasing number of “mass events” in mainland China. My study extends the current studies to the context of China and tries to examine the potential impacts of climate changes on human conflicts in China. The results suggest a strong linkage between the deviation of monthly mean temperature from the historical mean and the number of mass events in a province. If the current trend of warming persists, in the next 6–8 decades, the number of mass events in China will increase by over 8.8%.     

工业烟气净化系统的风量平衡调节及数值模拟应用研究

为了对某钢铁集团烧结机尾气净化系统的风量平衡进行调节,提出了利用Fluent仿真软件对通风管道内部流场进行数值模拟,在主管和部分支管上设置节流管、调节管径的改进措施。风量模拟结果表明,通风管道的原风量存在严重的不平衡性,吸尘点的风量不平衡率高达75.0%,在部分管道增加节流管可以有效调整管道的风量不平衡性,调整后吸尘点风量的不平衡率为18.8%;对于压力损失较大、风量偏小的管道,可通过管径调节使其风量基本达到设计要求;Fluent仿真软件的风量模拟值与现场实测值有较高的吻合性,数值模拟方法可以为工业烟气净化系统的改造提供参考依据。不仅能够为前期工程设计提供帮助,大大节省工程调试费用,缩短工期,并有助于风量不平衡管道的调节和改造。     

京津冀地区环境资产负债表编制研究

环境容量资产的核算是自然资源资产负债表编制中的主要组成部分。本文基于环境容量提出京津冀地区环境资产负债表编制方法,阐明该地区环境资产负债表的编制内容、核算范围以及编制路径,对2013年该地区及13个城市的环境容量资产进行核算,并编制了实物量资产负债表。在此基础上,提出了京津冀地区降低环境资产负债的政策建议,指出我国环境资产负债核算工作逐步规范化、制度化的方向。结果表明,京津冀地区大气及水环境容量均处于严重负债状态,其中,主要大气污染物SO2、NOx和PM2.5环境容量资产负债率分别为-235%、-263%和-316%,主要水污染物COD和NH3-N环境容量资产负债率分别为-414%和-850%。本文研究成果可为京津冀地区资源环境与经济发展决策提供科学基础,同时也可为其他地区开展环境资产核算研究提供参考。     

Analysis of interprovincial trade embodied carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding provinces: based on constructed MRIO Model

The interprovincial trade embodied carbon emissions plays an important role in the national emission reduction target among China’s provinces. Furthermore, it will affect the smooth start-up of the national carbon trade market as well as the implementation of targets in 2030 for dealing with the climate change. Based on constructed MRIO model, this paper analyzes the embodied carbon emission trade flows among Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The results indicate that six provinces have formed different patterns of carbon trade balance, where Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei provinces are in a deficit position, while the other three provinces are in a surplus position. Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei have transferred part of the carbon emissions to the other three provinces, which shows greater heterogeneity among various provinces and provincial different sectors. On basis of the conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions on provincial decomposition, responsibility distribution, and provincial collaborative reduction for national emission reduction targets.     

中国石油资源的资产负债表编制初探

我国境内石油行业总体呈现原油开采量上升的态势,为之付出的经济和生态成本也越来越大。开展我国境内石油资源资产负债表的编制工作对于摸清我国石油资源的家底、评估我国石油资源开采的经济—资源—环境综合成本、探讨我国石油开采战略的合理性具有重要的意义。本文首先探讨了石油资源资产负债表的编制方法和框架,构建了集"生态系统服务"、"环境污染"和"资源消耗"三位于一体的"生态负债"账户。其次,收集并整理了重要的污染物处理成本和生态系统服务的价值评估成果,构建了价值化因子数据表。最后,基于2012年数据尝试编制了目前我国的第一份石油资源资产负债表。结果显示,(1)2012年末,我国石油资源的资产总额为1.47×109万元,负债总额为9.03×107万元,所有者权益为1.38×109万元;(2)石油资源资产总额占到当年政府资产总额的14.43%,占政府资源性资产比重达31.12%;(3)石油行业的资产负债率为6.15%,负债权益比达到了6.56%;(4)"生态系统服务"构成了负债的最大比重,达到了98.16%。总的来说,我国石油开采行业整体处于"高资产、高负债、强生态压力和弱可持续性"的状态。从这份资产负债表我们可以看出,我国境内石油开采的生态成本不容忽视。随着资源的不断开发,石油开采的边际生态成本只会越来越大,因此,能指向经济和生态两方面的综合成本应该取代账面成本成为政府进行石油资源开发的决策依据之一。此外,要落实石油资源资产负债表对于生态保护的实际指导意义,我们建议应该将石油资源开采的资产负债率、负债权益比等指标纳入官员的绩效考核体系。     

Single- and dual-porosity modelling of flow in reclaimed mine soil cores with embedded lignitic fragments

Lignitic mine soils represent a typical two-scale dual-porosity medium consisting of a technogenic mixture of overburden sediments that include lignitic components as dust and as porous fragments embedded within a mostly coarse-textured matrix. Flow and transport processes in such soils are not sufficiently understood to predict the course of soil reclamation or of mine drainage. The objective of this contribution is to identify the most appropriate conceptual model for describing small-scale heterogeneity effects on flow on the basis of the physical structure of the system. Multistep flow experiments on soil cores are analyzed using either mobile–immobile or mobile–mobile type 1D dual-porosity models, and a 3D numerical model that considers a local-scale distribution of fragments. Simulations are compared with time series' of upward infiltration and matric potential heads measured at two depths using miniature tensiometers. The 3D and the 1D dual-permeability models yielded comparable results as long as pressure heads are in local equilibrium; however, could describe either the upward infiltration or the matric potential curves but not both at the same time. The mobile–immobile type dual-porosity model failed to describe the data. A simultaneous match with pressure heads and upward infiltration data could only be obtained with the 1D dual-permeability model (i.e., mobile–mobile) by assuming an additional restriction of the inter-domain water transfer. These results indicate that for unsaturated flow conditions at higher matric potential heads (i.e., here >− 40 hPa), water in a restricted part of the fragment domain must be more mobile as compared to water in the sandy matrix domain. Closer inspections of the pore system and first neutron radiographic imaging support the hypothesis that a more continuous pore region exists at these pressure heads in the vicinity of the lignitic fragments possibly formed by fragment contacts and a lignitic dust interface-region between the two domains. The results suggest that the small-scale structure is too complex as to be represented by weighted contributions of individual components alone.     

Mercury cycling and species mass balances in four North American lakes

A mass balance model for mercury based on the fugacity concept is applied to Lake Superior, Lake Michigan, Onondaga Lake and Little Rock Lake to evaluate model performance, analyze cycling of three mercury species groups (elemental, divalent and methyl mercury), and identify important processes that determine the source-to-concentration relationship of the three mercury species groups in these lakes. This model application to four disparate ecosystems is an extension of previous applications of fugacity-based models describing mercury cycling. The model performs satisfactorily following site-specific parameterization, and provides an estimate of minimum rates of species interconversion that compare well with literature. Volatilization and sediment burial are the main processes removing mercury from the lakes, and uncertainty analyses indicate that air-water exchange of elemental mercury and water-sediment exchange of divalent mercury attached to particles are influential in governing mercury concentrations in water. Any new model application or field campaign to quantify mercury cycling in a lake should consider these processes as important.     

Fate of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in the environment of the Pearl River Estuary, South China

Ninety-six riverine runoff samples collected at eight major outlets in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), South China, during 2005-2006 were analyzed for 17 brominated diphenyl ether (BDE) congeners (defined as Σ₁₇PBDE). Fourteen and 15 congeners were detected, respectively, in the dissolved and particulate phases. These data were further used to elucidate the partitioning behavior of BDE congeners in riverine runoff. Several related fate processes, i.e. air-water exchange, dry and wet deposition, degradation, and sedimentation, within the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), were examined to estimate the inputs of Σ₁₀PBDE (sum of the target BDE congeners, BDE-28, -47, -66, -85, -99, -100, -138, -153, -154, and -183) and BDE-209 from the PRD to the coastal ocean based on mass balance considerations. The results showed that annual outflows of Σ₁₀PBDE and BDE-209 were estimated at 126 and 940 kg/year, respectively from the PRE to coastal ocean. Besides sedimentation and degradation, the majority of Σ₁₀PBDE and BDE-209 discharged into the PRE via riverine runoff was transported to the coastal ocean.     

泥石流滩地农业资源化开发与利用——以蒋家沟为例

泥石流滩地是山区宝贵的土地资源,其农业资源化开发与利用对促进当地社会经济发展和生态环境改善具有重要意义。以蒋家沟流域为例,在野外调查、遥感解译和实验分析的基础上,阐述了泥石流滩地农业资源化的原则和依据,建立了人畜 土地载荷平衡模型,分析了滩地开发利用的依据、效益和途径,并探讨了泥石流滩地未来农业资源化的思路和对策。研究结果表明：（1） 建立的人畜 土地载荷平衡模型反映了流域生态环境特征,能有效评价滩地开发利用的生态效益;（2）流域滩地农业资源化每年可产生500多万元的经济效益,除满足全流域6 418人的粮食需求外,还可提供338 t商品粮,是促进当地脱贫致富和社会经济发展的重要途径;（3）泥石流滩地既是宝贵的土地资源又是灾害的场所,其开发与利用可有效缓解山区人地矛盾,具有良好的生态效益,但需要在加强灾害防治和防灾减灾意识的基础上,进行深度农业资源化开发.     

A dynamic hydrological Monte Carlo simulation model to inform decision-making at Lake Toolibin,Western Australia

Lake Toolibin, an ephemeral lake in the agricultural zone of Western Australia, is under threat from secondary salinity due to land clearance throughout the catchment. The lake is extensively covered with native vegetation and is a Ramsar listed wetland, being one of the few remaining significant migratory bird habitats in the region. Currently, inflow with salinity greater than 1000 mg/L TDS is diverted from the lake in an effort to protect sensitive lakebed vegetation. However, this conservative threshold compromises the frequency and extent of lake inundation, which is essential for bird breeding. It is speculated that relaxing the threshold to 5000 mg/L may pose negligible additional risk to the condition of lakebed vegetation. To characterise the magnitude of improvement in the provision of bird breeding habitat that might be generated by relaxing the threshold, a dynamic water and salt balance model of the lake was developed and implemented using Monte Carlo simulation. Results from best estimate model inputs indicate that relaxation of the threshold increases the likelihood of satisfying habitat requirements by a factor of 9.7. A second-order Monte Carlo analysis incorporating incertitude generated plausible bounds of [2.6, 37.5] around the best estimate for the relative likelihood of satisfying habitat requirements. Parameter-specific sensitivity analyses suggest the availability of habitat is most sensitive to pan evaporation, lower than expected inflow volume, and higher than expected inflow salt concentration. The characterisation of uncertainty associated with environmental variation and incertitude allows managers to make informed risk-weighted decisions.