CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS1

ABSTRACT: A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that includsion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.     

AN EXAMINATION OF THE MECHANISMS CONTROLLING GROUNDWATER GRADIENTS IN HYPER-ARID REGIONAL SEDIMENTARY BASINS1

ABSTRACT: Although evidence of modern recharge in the North African and Arabian sedimentary basin aquifers exists, it is difficult to determine the volume of recharge. Also, from the evidence of regional groundwater gradients, the flow within the aquifers seems to be appreciably greater than one would intuitively expect. A hypotehtical model embodying the characteristics of the aquifers has been used to investigate the likely significance of various possible flow mechanisms. It is shown that while dewatering in the unconfined area can possibly contribute to flows for a considerable period of time, the maintenance of water levels in the unconfined zone must be the result of modern recharge. It is also shown that recharge depths of less than 10 mm per annum are sufficient given suitable aquifer parameters. Results for various combinations of aquifer parameters and configurations are given, including layered aquifers and the effects of restricted oufflows. Comparisons are made using a “bench mark” example. The work indicates that there is little point in carrying out conventional hydrological balance studies in hyper-arid areas and that, instead, more emphasis should be placed upon good groundwater hydrographic data and modeling.     

Hypsographs: Basic tools for lake management and monitoring

Hypsographs are graphic depictions of the vertical distributions of volumes or masses of water in lakes, ponds, or reservoirs. Quantitative limnological science or engineering must use a hypsograph, or a more complex equivalent system, to undertake calculations of water constituent concentration data by mathematical weighting. Construction of the graph is simple and described. Exemplary uses of the hypsograph are presented.     

Problems with using overlay mapping for planning and their implications for geographic information systems

As part of the planning process, maps of natural factors are often superimposed in order to identify areas which are suitable or unsuitable for a particular type of resource management. Overlay maps may also be used to identify analysis areas for predictive modeling of resource productivity and ecological response to management. Current interest in applying computer-assisted mapping technology to making overlay maps is drawing attention to geographic information systems for this purpose. The resultant maps, however, may be so inaccurate or unable to capture significant units of productivity and ecological response that they could lead to imperfect or false conclusions. Recommendations are made on how to proceed in light of these problems.     

Fuzzy数学在人－机－环境系统工程研究中的应用

综述了模糊数学在航天人机环境系统工程中的应用和发展。内容包括急性缺氧反应综合评定，人机系统中的控制模型，通风服研制和鉴定以及人体。心脏功能评价等研究领域中模糊数学的应用方法和作用。其研究方法对于一般人机工程的建模和分析具有积极意义。     

易燃易爆重大危险源安全监测系统校验的等周期数学模型

按照校验费和损失费最小以及有效度最大的原则分别给出了安全监测系统校验的等周期模型。当安全监测系统的无故障工作时间服从威布尔分布时，给出了模型的解法。     

ESTIMATION OF ENERGY REQUIREMENTS OF MORNING DEW EVAPORATION FROM LEAF SURFACES1

ABSTRACT: Evapotranspiration from vegetation is generally computed without consideration for early morning energy loss involved in drying wet leaf surfaces. In humid areas where dew formation is frequent, estimation of energy requirements for evaporating dew should be of interest. In this study, sensible heat flux (H) was computed from wind and temperature profile measurements over the study site. A leaf wetness sensor was used to measure the duration of evaporation from an exposed leaf surface, and net radiation was measured with a radiometer. The energy flux during the period of wet leaf surface evaporation was integrated over time. A cattail lysimeter situated at the site indicated the time when evapotranspiration started after wet leaves were dry. The energy requirements to dry an exposed wet leaf surface was estimated using energy balance methods. The mean value based on 44 days of observations from mid February to early May of 1993 indicates that the energy required to evaporate dew from openly exposed wet leaves was 5 percent of the total daily evapotranspiration of cattails with a coefficient of variation of 0.72. The mean time required to evaporate dew from exposed leaf surfaces from the onset of positive net radiation was 78 minutes. The mean dew evaporation in a morning from an exposed leaf surface was 0.16 mm with a maximum value of 0.41 mm. The energy required to dry wet leaves is a factor that should be considered when modeling evapotranspiration at hourly or shorter time intervals. Also, physical evapotranspiration models need to account for energy requirements for drying dew and rainfall wetted leaves.     

由三个地震模式讨论1995年日本阪神大震的预报问题

本文由我们已往提出的三个地震模式讨论了１９９５年日本阪神大震（Ｍ７．２）的预报问题。这些模式是立交模式、组合模式和调制模式。此外还用柯里奥利力（Ｃｏｒｒｉｏｌｉ）的效应讨论了主震３年后最强余震的预报。     

泥石流突变模型

本文在崔鹏的泥石流实验工作的基础上，用柘扑变换的方法建立了一个泥石流突变模型；并分析了泥石流的突变条件和机制；从理论上指出了防治泥石流发生和减轻泥石流灾害的措施，这在设计防治泥石流工程上将具有指导意义。     

PHOSPHORUS MANAGEMENT TO PROTECT LAKE WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: The Hallett Quarry gravel pit lakes are an active sand and gravel extraction operation located 0.4 km north of the City of Ames, Iowa. During periods of drought, these lakes serve as a supplemental water supply for Ames. A modified version of the Vollenweider input-output model was used to predict future water quality under various watershed land use, drainage, and lake configurations. The dominant factor controlling the future water quality of the lakes was found to be the nutrient input. It is recommended that a management plan to protect the future water quality should be oriented towards reducing the sources of phosphorus to the lakes.