人口年龄结构、人口迁移与东北经济增长

近些年来,中国东北地区经济增速的迅速下滑引发了广泛关注,与此同时,东北地区的人口老龄化与人口流失局面也在加速发展,为探究二者间的联系,本文在梳理文献的基础上,选择从人口年龄结构和人口迁移的视角切入,利用扩展的索洛模型推导了各变量与人均资本、人均产出间的关系。并通过对地级市面板数据的一阶系统广义矩估计研究了人口年龄结构,人口迁移等变量对东北经济增长的影响及经济增长对人口迁移的反作用,利用交叉项分析探讨了人口因素对东北不同经济发展水平地区的差异化影响。实证发现:1劳动年龄人口占比与东北经济增长成正相关,而人口老龄化与人口净迁出均对东北经济增长产生了不利影响;2相较于一般性的人口流动,户籍人口的净迁出对经济增长的不利影响更突出;3人口年龄结构与人口迁移对发达地区和落后地区产生的影响会有所差异;4东北经济增长存在惯性且符合区域增长收敛理论;5投资率与劳动力参与率这两个变量则未能通过显著性检验。6经济增长也对人口迁移产生了一定的反作用。在此基础上,本文针对性地提出了一些建议:1东北地区应及时科学综合地应对人口老龄化,开发老龄人力资源,调整人口政策,平衡地区间养老压力,发展老龄产业;2东北地区应控制人口流失局面,放宽户籍限制,加快国企改革,形成合理的产业结构与制度环境,留住人才。     

岷江上游刺旋花种群格局研究

在随机取样、解剖的基础上，对岷江上游灌丛优势种刺旋花（Convolvulustragacuthoiedes）建立种群静态生命表进行统计分析，以探索其在该地区特殊的生态学意义。结果表明：刺旋花种群的年龄结构为稳定发展型，存活曲线接近于decvyⅢ型；生活史中分别在1a和4～5a有两个死亡高峰；种群数量变化可用年龄结构模型Xx＝3．37·x－3．21（其中x表示年龄，Xx表示种群数量）来预测．X2检验法和区组样方方差法的格局分析结果都表明：刺旋花种群的分布格局随生境破碎程度和水分状况有很大差异，在不同样地分别趋向于随机分布和集群分布.     

An exposure study with polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in female European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris): toxicokinetics and reproductive effects

We exposed female European starlings to a pentabromodiphenyl ether (Penta-BDE) mixture through subcutaneous implants, and examined levels and profiles of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) together with reproductive effects. Sum PBDE levels increased significantly in the serum of the exposed females from 218 ± 43 to 23,400 ± 2035 pg/ml. Sum PBDE concentrations in the eggs of the exposed group ranged from 130 ± 12 to 220 ± 37 ng/g wet weight (ww). The profile in serum after egg laying was very similar to that in eggs. There were no detectable levels of HO-PBDEs in both serum and eggs. Fewer females of the exposed group initiated egg laying compared to the control group, although the difference was not significant. In addition, egg weight and volume were significantly higher in the exposed group. These results suggest that, at the investigated exposure levels (150 μg sum PBDEs/bird), PBDEs may have a negative effect on reproductive performance.     

Diamondback terrapins as indicator species of persistent organic pollutants: Using Barnegat Bay, New Jersey as a case study

The diamondback terrapin’s (Malaclemys terrapin) wide geographic distribution, long life span, occurrence in a variety of habitats within the saltmarsh ecosystem, predatory foraging behavior, and high site fidelity make it a useful indicator species for contaminant monitoring in estuarine ecosystems. In this study fat biopsies and plasma samples were collected from males and females from two sites within Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, as well as tissues from a gravid female and blue mussels (Mytilus edulis), which are terrapin prey. Samples were analyzed for persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), chlorinated pesticides, and methyl-triclosan. Terrapins from the northern site, Spizzle Creek, closest to influences from industrial areas, had higher POP concentrations for both tissues than terrapins from the less impacted Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge. Sex differences were observed with males having higher contaminant concentrations in fat and females in plasma. PCB patterns in terrapin fat and plasma were comparable to other wildlife. An atypical PBDE pattern was observed, dominated by PBDEs 153 and 100 instead of PBDEs 47 and 99, which has been documented in only a few other turtle species. The typical PBDE patterns measured in mussels, terrapin prey, suggests that the terrapin may efficiently biotransform or eliminate PBDE 47 and possibly PBDE 99. Plasma contaminant concentrations significantly and positively correlated with those in fat. This study addresses several aspects of using the terrapin as an indicator species for POP monitoring: site and sex differences, tissue sampling choices, maternal transfer, and biomagnification.     

Associations between maternal phthalate exposure and cord sex hormones in human infants

It has been speculated that maternal phthalate exposure may affect reproductive development in human newborns. However, the mechanism awaits further investigation. The aim is to evaluate the association between maternal phthalate exposure and cord sex steroid hormones in pregnant women and their newborns from the general population. A total of 155 maternal and infant pair were recruited and analyzed. Levels of urinary phthalate metabolites and sex steroid hormones were determined using liquid chromatography/electrospray tandem mass spectrometry (LC-ESI-MS/MS) and radioimmunoassay (RIA), respectively. No significant correlation was found between each steroid hormones and phthalate metabolites for male newborns, except MMP was marginally significantly correlated with E₂. After adjusting for maternal age, estradiol (E₂) levels in cord serum from male newborns were not correlated with maternal urinary phthalate metabolites. In female newborns, the maternal urinary levels of mono-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (MEHP) and mono-(2-ethyl-5-hydroxyhexyl) phthalate (5OH-MEHP) were negatively correlated with the free testosterone (fT) and fT/E₂ levels in cord serum with Pearson correlation coefficients ranging between −0.24 and −0.29 (p < 0.05). Additionally, after gestational age was adjusted, the maternal urinary level of DEHP was negatively correlated with the free testosterone (fT) and fT/E₂ levels in cord serum. We suggest that maternal exposure to phthalates may affect sex steroid hormones status in fetal and newborn stage.     

Hope in a hopeless age: environmentalism’s crisis

In this short essay it is argued that recent criticisms portraying the activist environmental movement as overly pessimistic are valid and that the communication of this pessimism to the public at large has been largely counterproductive to the objectives of environmentalists. It is argued that, in contrast to historic assumptions of a ‘progress paradigm’ that epitomized the widely held optimism of the past, the shock tactics and pessimistic media campaigns employed by the activist environmental movement, and the media that capitalizes upon those campaigns, have contributed to the creation of a figurative hopeless age. The key characterization of the hopeless age is the widely held assumption that the future will be worse than the present and that the lives of future generations will be diminished relative to our own. It is argued that the creation of this social-psychological phenomenon is counterproductive to the aims of the environmental movement and that the restoration of a collective vision and message of hope would be far more productive. Lastly, some reasons for a hopeful outlook are suggested.

宿松-枞阳断裂最新活动时代及未来地震危险性研究

宿松—枞阳断裂卫星影像清晰,是一条对构造、地貌、中新生代盆地有着控制意义的断裂。本文对该断裂所处的区域地震地质构造背景进行了分析,结合断裂的发育历史,选择典型剖面,对断裂的最新活动特征进行调查。根据野外地质考察和断裂沿线地震活动统计结果,对断裂未来的地震危险性进行了定量评估。分析认为,该断裂晚第四纪以来仍然有所活动,但活动强度已减弱,未来可能发生无地表位错的中强地震,最大震级综合判定为M5.5。     

陕西五曲湾滑坡发育特征和~(14)C测龄

在陕西省凤翔县五曲湾滑坡的滑带土中发现一段树根,表面被炭化,并且发生了强烈的剪切变形,分析认为此乃滑坡滑动所致。经过14C测龄,年龄为462±45年B.P,这一年龄与地质分析获取的认识基本吻合,与1556年"华县大地震"发生的年份非常接近,从而为研究五曲湾滑坡的触发机制提供了重要依据。最后提出,如果在滑带土中发现可用于定年的样品,采用14C法测定滑坡年龄,是对滑坡进行定年的有效途径。     

The effect of in utero exposure to dioxins and polychlorinated biphenyls on reproductive development in eight year-old children

We have previously reported on the effects of in utero exposure to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) on thyroid function and growth hormone concentrations at birth and in two and five year-old children. Herein, we present our most recent follow-up examination findings for the same cohort of children at eight-years of age. A total of 56 children (23 boys, 33 girls) were examined. Bone age (BA), hormone concentrations, and indicators of reproductive development including Tanner, breast, genital, and armpit stages were assessed. Estradiol concentrations were significantly lower in children exposed to higher levels than median of PCDD/Fs + PCBs TEQ compared to the children exposed to levels lesser than median (P = 0.003). Girls exposed to higher levels than median of indicator PCBs had a significantly greater proportion in genital stage 1 and shorter fundi and uteri lengths, as compared to those exposed to low levels (P = 0.025 and P < 0.05, respectively). There was a significant negative relationship between estradiol concentrations and PCDD/Fs + PCB exposure level (P = 0.005). After adjusting for BA, there was a significant association between fundus length and indicator PCB exposure level (P = 0.034). Exposure to both high levels of ΣPCDD/Fs + PCBs TEQ and high levels of total PCBs was associated with decreased fundus length (P = 0.016) and uterus length (P = 0.016). In utero exposure to high levels of PCDD/Fs and PCBs may result in lower estradiol concentrations in eight year-old children and impaired reproductive development in girls.     

Investigating factors influencing pedestrian injury severity at intersections

Objective: Vehicle crashes that involve pedestrians at intersections have been reported occasionally. Pedestrian injury severity in these crashes is significantly related to driver and pedestrian attributes, vehicle characteristics, and the geometry of intersections. Identifying factors associated with pedestrian injury severity (PIS) is critical for reducing crashes and improving safety. For developing the proposed probit models, drivers involved in crashes are classified into 3 groups: young drivers (16 ≤ age ≤ 24), middle-aged drivers (25 ≤ age ≤ 64), and older drivers (age ≥ 65). This study determines that PIS is significantly but differently affected by these grouped drivers with different sets of explanatory variables.

Methods: A total of 2,614 crash records (2011–2012) at intersections in Cook County, Illinois, were collected. An ordered probit modeling approach was employed to develop the proposed model and examine factors influencing PIS. The likelihood ratio test was used to assess model performance. Elasticity analysis was conducted to interpret the marginal effect of contributing factors on PIS associated with different driver groups by age.

Results: The results show that 4 independent variables, including pedestrian age, vehicle type, point of first contact, and weather condition, significantly affect PIS at intersections for all drivers. Two additional independent variables (i.e., number of vehicles and traffic type) affect PIS for young and middle-aged drivers, and 2 other variables (i.e., divided type and hit-and-run related) are significant to PIS for both young and older drivers.

Conclusions: The independent variables significant to PIS at intersections for young, middle-aged, and older driver groups were identified and the marginal effect of each variable to the likelihood of PIS were assessed.