Urban expansion and its contribution to the regional carbon emissions: Using the model based on the population density distribution

The method is used for calculating regional urban area dynamics and the resulting carbon emissions (from the land-conversion) for the period of 1980 till 2050 for the eight world regions. This approach is based on the fact that the spatial distribution of population density is close to the two-parametric Γ-distribution [Kendall, M.G., Stuart, A., 1958. The Advanced Theory of Statistics, vol. 1.2. Academic Press, New York; Vaughn, R., 1987. Urban Spatial Traffic Patterns, Pion, London]. The developed model provides us with the scenario of urbanisation, based on which the regional and world dynamics of carbon emissions and export from cities, and the annual total urban carbon balance are estimated. According to our estimations, world annual emissions of carbon as a result of urbanisation increase up to 1.25 GtC in 2005 and begin to decrease afterwards. If we compare the emission maximum with the annual emission caused by deforestation, 1.36 GtC per year, then we can say that the role of urbanised territories (UT) in the global carbon balance is of a comparable magnitude. Regarding the world annual export of carbon from UT, we observe its monotonous growth by three times, reaching 505 MtC. The latter, is comparable to the amount of carbon transported by rivers into the ocean (196–537 MtC). The current model shows that urbanisation is inhibited in the interval 2020–2030, and by 2050 the growth of urbanised areas would almost stop. Hence, the total balance, being almost constant until 2000, then starts to decrease at an almost constant rate. By the end of the XXI century, the total carbon balance will be equal to zero, with the exchange flows fully balanced, and may even be negative, with the system beginning to take up carbon from the atmosphere, i.e., becomes a “sink”. The regional dynamics is somewhat more complex, i.e., some regions, like China, Asia and Pacific are being active sources of Carbon through the studied period, while others are changing from source to sink or continue to be neutral in respect the GCC.     

Effects of Detectability on Estimates of Geographic Range Size in Bignonieae

Abstract: Extinction risk has not been evaluated for 96% of all described plant species. Given that the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation proposes preliminary conservation assessments of all described plant species by 2010, herbarium specimens (i.e., primary occurrence data) are increasingly being used to infer threat components from estimates of geographic range size. Nevertheless, estimates of range size based on herbarium data may be inaccurate due to collection bias associated with interspecific variation in detectability. We used data on 377 species of Bignonieae to test the hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between detectability and estimates of geographic range size derived from herbarium specimens. This relationship is expected if the proportion of the true geographic range size of a species that is documented by herbarium specimens is given by the product of the true geographic range size and the detectability of the species, assuming no relationship between true geographic range size and detectability. We developed 4 measures of detectability that can be estimated from herbarium data and examined the relationship between detectability and 2 types of estimates of geographic range size: area of occupancy and extent of occurrence. Our results from regressing estimates of extent of occurrence and area of occupancy on detectability across genera provided no support for this hypothesis. The same was true for regressions of estimated extent of occurrence on detectability across species within genera. Nevertheless, regressions of estimated area of occupancy on detectability across species within genera provided partial support for our hypothesis. We considered 3 possible explanations for this mixed outcome: violation of the assumption of no relationship between true geographic range size and detectability; the relationships between estimated geographic range size and detectability may be an artifact of a negative relationship between estimated area of occupancy and the sampling variance of detectability; detectability may have had 2 opposite effects on estimated species range sizes: one determines the proportion of the true range of a species documented by herbarium specimens and the other determines the distribution of true range size for the species actually observed with herbarium data. Our findings should help improve understanding of the potential biases incurred with the use of herbarium data.     

集约化蔬菜种植区地下水中反硝化细菌的分离鉴定

从研究我国典型集约化蔬菜种植区地下水中硝酸盐的来源和浓度人手,进行富集、培养、分离、纯化,筛选出一株具有反硝化作用的菌株,通过形态学、革兰氏染色结合16SrDNA序列同源性分析鉴定,其鉴定结果为农杆菌(Agrobacterium sp.).该研究为开展地下水硝酸盐污染的生物修复储备宝贵的菌种资源,为地下水中硝酸盐污染的原位微生物修复和相关污水的生物处理提供微牛物基础,对于经济、有效的解决地下水硝酸盐污染和水资源短缺的问题有着十分重要的意义.     

濒危植物疏花水柏枝种子萌发的生态学特性

疏花水柏枝Myricaria laxiflora分布于我国三峡从宜昌至重庆段长江干流的消落带,分布区十分狭小.三峡工程兴建后,疏花水柏枝将失去绝大部分的生境而成为濒危物种.通过设置一系列控制实验测试了土壤水质量分数,温度和土壤类型对疏花水柏枝种子萌发的生态学的影响.实验结果表明,土壤水质量分数、温度和土壤类型对种子萌发率都有显著影响.其中种子萌发率随土壤水质量分数增加而增大,土壤水质量分数达到饱和程度时萌发率达到最大值;高温条件下的种子萌发率高于低温,种子萌发率在21～27℃达到最大值;种子在河沙基质上萌发好于在沙土基质上.结合分布区萌发季节的环境条件分析,土壤水质量分数是限制该物种分布于消落带的关键作用因子.据此就该物种的种群保护与重建提出了一些建议.     

区域人均基本农田需求面积测算模型及应用——以江苏省为例

为估计一定区域内基本农田保护面积,论文在探讨基本农田涵义的基础上,提出了区域人均基本农田需求面积的计算模型。该模型综合考虑了城乡居民对农产品的消费、复种指数、粮食作物播种面积比例、单产水平以及城市化水平等因素。以江苏省为例,计算1985-2004年江苏省城乡居民人均粮食消耗总当量。在此基础上,计算1985-2004年江苏省人均基本农田需求面积以及估计2005-2020年江苏省人均基本农田需求面积。结果表明,1985-2004年之间,江苏省人均基本农田需求面积平均值为0.054hm₂,考虑在外饮食情况时,该值为0.059hm₂;2005-2020年之间江苏省人均基本农田需求面积平均值为0.057hm₂。     

黄土丘陵沟壑区苜蓿地土壤水分环境效应

根据田间试验资料,分析研究了黄土丘陵沟壑区苜蓿地土壤水分的周年变化规律,并以休闲地和几种一年生作物地作为对照进行对比研究,得出以下主要结论:①雨季降水对苜蓿地土壤水分的补给起着重要的作用,其土壤贮水量动态与年内的降雨周期相吻合,但总体上朝着土壤不断干化的方向发展;②经过一个雨季,苜蓿地的土壤贮水量与平均含水量分别呈不同程度的下降,而休闲地与4月份持平;③相同的降水对不同作物地的补给效果不同,以3m土层计算,苜蓿地的农田蒸散量与谷子、玉米相当,比豆子地高,但要低于高粱地;④长期种植苜蓿引起的深层土壤干化问题必须引起足够的重视,干化土地的水分恢复不是一朝一夕的事情。     

广州市南部拓展区大气环境保护规划

面向城市可持续发展的环境规划需要新的理念和原则作指导。生态优先作为指导生态城市建设的崭新理念和原则,要求城市环境规划应该以保护和完善城市生态功能为重点。结合广州市南部拓展区大气环境规划,探讨生态优先原则在城市大气环境规划中的应用。     

黄土丘陵沟壑区狼牙刺灌木林地的土壤水分动态

在陕北黄土区安塞县纸坊沟小流域,选择不同林龄的狼牙刺地块,对其土壤水分作了动态观测,并以柠条地和撂荒地为对照。分析研究得出如下结论:①在土层足够深的地块上,天然灌木狼牙刺年蒸散量约为590mm,单株平均耗水量约85mm。强烈耗水期是5月中旬至7月底,8月底土壤水分达到最低值,9月份以后开始恢复;②狼牙刺地土壤水分活跃层在0-2.5m之间,土壤水分的消耗强度随深度的增加而下降;③狼牙刺地干层超过10m,比同龄的柠条土壤干层(8m)深,在两个生长季中,干层没有进一步发展。     

鲁西北地区现状农业土地资源劳动力承载力模拟

传统农区农业劳动力的出路问题是中国目前面临的一个重要经济和社会问题,论文从农业土地资源劳动力承载力评价角度,对这一问题进行了探讨。提出了最小劳均耕地面积、农业土地资源劳动力承载力、规模种植压力指数和农业土地资源劳动力承载力指数的概念及模型,在建立模型分析农业土地资源劳动力承载能力的基础上估算劳动力的剩余。结果如下:在现实收入水平下,鲁西北地区最小劳均耕地面积为0.39hm₂,而实际劳均耕地面积为0.34hm₂;在现实收入水平下,鲁西北地区约有53.3×104个劳动力需要转移,剩余劳动力约占农林牧渔业总劳动力的14.9％;规模种植压力指数K=1.18>1,表明耕地处于正压力状态(承受压力)。说明目前鲁西北地区单位农林牧渔业劳动力所拥有的耕地规模较小,致使劳动生产率难以提高,农民收入增加缓慢,要大力提高农业劳动生产率,必须缩减从事农业的劳动力规模,寻求剩余劳动力转移的有效途径。     

北京市不同尺度大气颗粒物元素组成的特征分析

在2000年2个典型季节分别采集不同尺度的颗粒物样品,分析其中22种无机元素的含量.利用这些数据较详细地研究了北京市颗粒物的元素组成特征.数据分析结果表明,北京市大气颗粒物中的元素主要分为地壳元素、污染元素和双重元素三大类.利用不同污染元素在各种尺度颗粒物中的富集因子,确定了北京市大气颗粒物具有复合型污染的特征.