Has the bell tolled for the North American mineral and metal industry?

The author examines the reasons behind the current state of the North American metal mining industry. Taking demand-side factors first, he explains the dramatic fall in metals consumption. External shocks are seen to have affected the previously well rationalized structure of supply in the 1960s, bringing about an increase in production costs and limiting capacity for industrial rationalization. At the beginning of the 1980s, the situation is seen to have been exacerbated by a larger number of producers, more supply sources and an increase in costs. During the course of the decade, the author relates how the situation worsened due to the strength of the US dollar and high interest rates.     

A mineral commodity life-cycle?: Relationships between production,price and economic resources

The production, price and economic resources profiles of a number of mineral commodities are examined and consideration is given to the theory that such profiles can be related to one another within the framework of a life-cycle model of development. While the behaviour of some of the commodities examined appears to lend support to the theory, that of others reveals fundamental problems with its underlying assumptions. It is concluded that, while the demand for a mineral commodity in specific uses may indeed manifest cyclical tendencies, as a general behavioural theory and as a basis for resource estimation the life-cycle model applied to minerals is of little value.     

Economic cost of mineral supply disruptions: Effects on a small, open economy

The potential impact of short-run disruptions in the minerals market on Israel's small, developed open economy is examined, showing that Israel is potentially capable of a smoother adjustment to external market disturbances. First, the analysis evaluates critical situations within the framework of a normative ‘general equilibrium model’, tracing the impacts of short-run developments in the resources market, and, second, it focuses on specific minerals within a partial equilibrium framework, using economic supply - demand relationships to assess economic damages. The potential damage estimates indicate that significant research and development outlays in the areas of material and process substitution and the capability for a quick build-up of contingent inventories would be justified to prevent the damages which supply disruption might inflict on the economy.     

Long-term projections of non-fuel minerals: We were wrong,but why?

This article revisits global projections made in 1981 of eight metallic and fertilizer minerals for the year 2000. The principal objectives of the present study are to quantify the differences between the projected and observed levels of consumption for the year 2000 for eight of the 26 non-fuel minerals covered in the earlier study, and, then, to attempt to attribute these (often) large differences to the major determinants of minerals demand: income, technological, regulatory and other public policy changes, and changes in the recycling rates of the metallic minerals. The eight minerals are: aluminum, copper, iron, mercury, nickel, phosphate rock, potash and tin.This follow-up study begins with a discussion of the need for long-term projections of minerals. This section also includes a summary of the major determinants of the long-term demand for, and supply of, minerals, and a review of some of the earlier assessments of mineral needs and availability.Section 3 of the article begins with a short summary of the World Input–Output Model, the main methodological tool used in the earlier study that was developed by Prof. Wassily Leontief, the 1973 Nobel laureate in economics, and the way in which non-fuel minerals were represented in that system. This section also provides a summary of other global modeling efforts of non-fuel minerals that were carried out at a similar point in time for a similar interval.Section 4 presents the actual population, GDP and per capita GDP changes over the 1970–2000 time interval compared with the projected rates for these important determinants of mineral use, along with the projected and observed growth rates of minerals consumption for the eight non-fuel minerals included in this study. When the projections are compared to the observed global consumption rates for the year 2000, the differences range from +43% for nickel to +229% for potash.Section 5 discusses the apparent reasons for the differences between the projected and observed global consumption rates of these non-fuel minerals that include differences in the growth of GDP and GDP per capita, changes in recycling rates (for the metallic minerals), technological change, and regulatory or other public policy changes that have affected mineral use over the 30-year-interval ending in 2000.In light of the data and analysis presented in Sections sec# and sec#, the article concludes with some remarks, made almost a quarter of a century ago, by Prof. Leontief on the need and justification for long-term projections.     

Ecotypes diversity in autumn olive (Elaeagnus umbellata Thunb): A single plant with multiple micronutrient genes

Elaeagnus umbellata, a member of the Elaeagnaceae family, is native to Pakistan, China, India, Korea, and Japan. It is found commonly at altitudes ranging from 1200 to 2100 m and thrives on eroded and degraded land due to its ability to fix nitrogen. The plant also grows under variable pH (4–8) and drought, and is used locally as fuel wood, fencing, fodder, basket making, and shelterbelts. The fruit of the plant is well known for its essential nutrients and medicinal compounds such as vitamins, minerals, essential fatty acids, carotenoids (lycopene), soluble solids, and sugars. Medicinally, it is widely believed to protect against myocardial infections, pulmonary infections, and various forms of cancers. Ten ecotypes from variable microclimatic conditions were investigated for their morphological, molecular and biochemical diversity improvement and commercialization purposes. Comparisons and disabilities indicated significant variability in terms of morphological (plant height, number of branches, thorn size and number, leaf area, fruit size, 100 fruit weight, and yield), molecular (SDS-PAGE), and micro- and macronutrient (vitamin C, Fe, mg, P, Na, K, essential oils, and sugar) bases among the ecotypes. This variability will be helpful in developing commercial varieties of the plant utilizing the conventional techniques of selection and hybridization for economic activities. The plant has ample quantities of multiple micronutrients, thus indicating their expression through a powerful promoter at one place (fruit mesocarp). Efforts to identify and isolate the micronutrient genes (vitamin A, C, E, and Fe), the deficiency of which causes malnutrition and disabilities within the population of developing countries. Micronutrient genes have also been initiated for their characterization and future transformation into staple food crops for stable bio-fortification.     

Metal scarcity and sustainability,analyzing the necessity to reduce the extraction of scarce metals

There is debate whether or not further growth of metal extraction from the earth's crust will be sustainable in connection with geologic scarcity. Will future generations possibly face a depletion of specific metals? We study whether, for which metals and to what extent the extraction rate would need to be reduced in order to be sustainable. To do so, we propose an operational definition for the sustainable extraction rate of metals. We have divided 42 metals in 4 groups according to their geologic scarcity. Applying the proposed sustainability definition to the 17 scarcest metals, shows that for almost all considered metals the global consumption of primary resources needs to be reduced to stay within sustainable limits as defined in our analysis. The 8 geologically scarcest metals are antimony, bismuth, boron, copper, gold, molybdenum, rhenium and zinc.