Prospects for improved hurricane protection on oceanic islands: Hawaii after Hurricane Iwa *

Hurricane Iwa (23rd November 1982) produced Hawaii's costliest natural disaster and revealed serious flaws in the area's hurricane preparedness, response and mitigation programs. Twenty-eight months later, a follow-up study showed that impacted communities and facilities had been reconstructed with only selective and limited attention to mitigating future coastal storm hazards. Prospects for the reduction of hazard vulnerability on oceanic islands through post-disaster mitigation measures are assessed in the light of Hawaii's experience.     

Including past and present impacts in cumulative impact assessments

Environmental concerns such as loss of biological diversity and stratospheric ozone depletion have heightened awareness of the need to assess cumulative impacts in environmental documents. More than 20 years of experience with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) have provided analysts in the United States with opportunities for developing successful techniques to assess site-specific impacts of proposed actions. Methods for analyzing a proposed action's incremental contribution to cumulative impacts are generally less advanced than those for project-specific impacts.The President's Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) defines cumulative impact to include the impacts of past, present and reasonably foreseeable future actions regardless of who undertakes the action. Court decisions have helped clarify the distinction between reasonably foreseeable future actions and other possible future actions. This paper seeks to clarify how past and present impacts should be included in cumulative impact analyses.The definition of cumulative impacts implies that cumulative impact analyses should include the effects of all past and present actions on a particular resource. Including past and present impacts in cumulative impact assessments increases the likelihood of identifying significant impacts. NEPA requires agencies to give more consideration to alternatives and mitigation and to provide more opportunities for public involvement for actions that would have significant impacts than for actions that would not cause or contribute to significant impacts. For an action that would contribute to significant cumulative impacts, the additional cost and effort involved in increased consideration of alternatives and mitigation and in additional public involvement may be avoided if the action can be modified so that its contributions to significant cumulative impacts are eliminated.Managed by Lockheed Martin Energy Research Corporation under contract DE-AC05-84OR21400 with the US Department of Energy.     

Carbon forestry economic mitigation potential in India,by land classification

Carbon forestry mitigation potential estimates at the global-level are limited by the absence or simplicity of national-level estimates, and similarly national-level estimates are limited by absence of regional-level estimates. The present study aims to estimate the mitigation potential for a large diverse country such as India, based on the GTAP global land classification system of agro-ecological zones (AEZs), as well the Indian AEZ system. The study also estimates the implications of carbon price incentive (US$50 and $100) on mitigation potential in the short-, medium- and long-term, since afforestation and reforestation (A & R) is constrained by lack of investment and financial incentives. The mitigation potential for short and long rotation plantations and natural regeneration was estimated using the GCOMAP global forest model for two land area scenarios. One scenario included only wastelands (29 Mha), and the second enhanced area scenario, included wastelands plus long fallow and marginal croplands (54 Mha). Under the $100 carbon price case, significant additional area (3.6 Mha under the wasteland scenario and 6.4 Mha under the enhanced area scenario) and carbon mitigation is gained in the short-term (2025) compared to the baseline when using the GTAP land classification system. The area brought under A & R increases by 85–100% for the $100 carbon price compared to $50 carbon price in the short-term, indicating the effectiveness of higher carbon price incentives, especially in the short-term. A comparison of estimates of mitigation potential using GTAP and Indian AEZ land classification systems showed that in the short-term, 35% additional C-stock gain is achieved in the $100 carbon price case in the enhanced area scenario of the Indian AEZ system. This difference highlights the role of the land classification system adopted in estimation of aggregate mitigation potential estimates, particularly in the short-term. Uncertainty involved in the estimates of national-level mitigation potential needs to be reduced, by generating reliable estimates of carbon stock gain and losses, and cost and benefit data, for land use sector mitigation options at a scale disaggregated enough to be relevant for national mitigation planning.     

Some myths and realities about dust explosions

The necessary conditions for a dust explosion to occur are well-expressed by the explosion pentagon: (i) fuel, (ii) oxidant, (iii) ignition source, (iv) mixing of the fuel and oxidant, and (v) confinement of the resulting mixture. While it might seem relatively straightforward to prevent or mitigate a dust explosion by simply removing one of the pentagon elements, the field of dust explosion risk reduction is more complex. Building upon previous work by the author and other dust explosion researchers, the theme of the current paper is that this complexity is partially rooted in several erroneous beliefs. These beliefs ignore the realities found with full consideration of appropriate scientific and engineering principles. Several such myths and their factual counterparts are presented with an illustrative example.     

Economic and Ecological Outcomes of Flexible Biodiversity Offset Systems

The commonly expressed goal of biodiversity offsets is to achieve no net loss of specific biological features affected by development. However, strict equivalency requirements may complicate trading of offset credits, increase costs due to restricted offset placement options, and force offset activities to focus on features that may not represent regional conservation priorities. Using the oil sands industry of Alberta, Canada, as a case study, we evaluated the economic and ecological performance of alternative offset systems targeting either ecologically equivalent areas (vegetation types) or regional conservation priorities (caribou and the Dry Mixedwood natural subregion). Exchanging dissimilar biodiversity elements requires assessment via a generalized metric; we used an empirically derived index of biodiversity intactness to link offsets with losses incurred by development. We considered 2 offset activities: land protection, with costs estimated as the net present value of profits of petroleum and timber resources to be paid as compensation to resource tenure holders, and restoration of anthropogenic footprint, with costs estimated from existing restoration projects. We used the spatial optimization tool MARXAN to develop hypothetical offset networks that met either the equivalent‐vegetation or conservation‐priority targets. Networks that required offsetting equivalent vegetation cost 2–17 times more than priority‐focused networks. This finding calls into question the prudence of equivalency‐based systems, particularly in relatively undeveloped jurisdictions, where conservation focuses on limiting and directing future losses. Priority‐focused offsets may offer benefits to industry and environmental stakeholders by allowing for lower‐cost conservation of valued ecological features and may invite discussion on what land‐use trade‐offs are acceptable when trading biodiversity via offsets. Resultados Económicos y Ecológicos de Sistemas de Compensación de Biodiversidad Flexible Habib et al.     

Section 404 wetland mitigation and permit success criteria in Pennsylvania,USA, 1986-1999

Twenty-three Section 404 permits in central Pennsylvania (covering a wetland age range of 1–14 years) were examined to determine the type of mitigation wetland permitted, how the sites were built, and what success criteria were used for evaluation. Most permits allowed for mitigation out-of-kind, either vegetatively or through hydrogeomorphic class. The mitigation process has resulted in a shift from impacted wetlands dominated by woody species to less vegetated mitigation wetlands, a trend that appears to be occurring nationwide. An estimate of the percent cover of emergent vegetation was the only success criterion specified in the majority of permits. About 60% of the mitigation wetlands were judged as meeting their originally defined success criteria, some after more than 10 years. The permit process appears to have resulted in a net gain of almost 0.05 ha of wetlands per mitigation project. However, due to the replacement of emergent, scrub–shrub, and forested wetlands with open water ponds or uplands, mitigation practices probably led to a net loss of vegetated wetlands.     

Early Secondary Succession in Bottomland Hardwood Forests of Southeastern Virginia

Addressing the need for reference sites that permit wetland managers to evaluate the relative success of wetland restoration efforts, this project examines the early successional properties of a chronosequence of 17 forested wetlands that have been clear-cut and allowed to naturally revegetate. Ordinations performed on the data using CANOCO software indicated three general types of communities—one dominated by bald cypress (Taxodium distichum) and water tupelo (Nyssa aquatica), one dominated by black willow (Salix nigra), and one with a species composition similar to that of a mature stand of bottomland hardwoods. These divisions were correlated with the percentage of stems originating as coppice on stumps leftover from the clear-cut. In particular, the bottomland hardwood stands were regenerating predominantly as coppice, while the cypress/tupelo and black willow stands were regenerating primarily as seedlings. As indicated by the earlier development of overstory basal area, coppice sites were also regenerating much faster. The hydrology of a site also exhibited a strong impact on the rate of regeneration, with the semipermanently to permanently flooded portions of sites often exhibiting little or no regeneration. The results indicate that, because of the overwhelming reliance on coppice sprouts as the main source of stems and the concomitant enhanced rates of regeneration, certain vegetative parameters of clear-cut bottomland hardwood stands would not be effective benchmarks by which to judge the relative success of creation and restoration efforts.     

PROFILE: Wetland Mitigation Banking: A Framework for Crediting and Debiting

Biological Report 88(41):1–103), assessment of credits and determination of a compensation ratio that reflects existing and/or potential functional condition in a mitigation bank has been a formidable task. This study presents a framework for a systematic approach for determination of credits and debits and subsequently the compensation ratio. A model for riparian systems is developed based on this framework that evaluates credits and debits for spatial and structural diversity, contiguity of habitats, invasive vegetation, hydrology, topographic complexity, characteristics of flood-prone areas, and biogeochemical processes. The goal of developing this crediting and debiting framework is to provide an alternative to the current methods of determining credits and debits in a mitigation bank and assigning mitigation ratios, such as best professional judgement or use of preset ratios. The purpose of this crediting and debiting framework is to develop a method that (1) can be tailored to evaluate ecological condition based on the target resources of a specific mitigation bank, (2) is flexible enough to be used for evaluation of existing or potential ecologic condition at a mitigation bank, (3) is a structured and systematic way to apply data and professional judgment to the decision-making process, (4) has an ecologically defensible basis, (5) has ease of use such that the level of expertise and time required to employ the method is not a deterrent to its application, and (6) provides a semiquantitative measure of the condition of aquatic resources that can be translated to a mitigation ratio.     

Carbon benefits from Amazonian forest reserves: leakage accounting and the value of time

Amazonian forest reserves have significant carbon benefits, but the methodology used for accounting for these benefits will be critical in determining whether the powerful economic force represented by mitigation efforts to slow global warming will be applied to creating these reserves. Opportunities for reserve creation are quickly being lost as new areas are opened to deforestation though highway construction and other developments. Leakage, or the effects that a reserve or other mitigation project provokes outside of the project boundaries, is critical to a proper accounting of net carbon benefits. Protected areas in the Amazon have particularly great potential mitigation benefits over an extended time horizon. Over a 100-year time frame, virtually no unprotected forest is likely to remain, meaning that potential leakages (both leakage to the vicinity of the reserves and that displaced by removing protected areas from the land-grabbing market) should not matter much because any short-term leakage would be “recovered” eventually. The effect of the value attributed to time greatly influences the impact of leakage on benefits credited to reserves. Simple assumptions regarding leakage scenarios illustrate the benefits of reserves and the critical areas where agreement is necessary to make this option a practical component of mitigation efforts. The stakes are too high to allow further delays in reaching agreement on these issues.     

An experimental analysis of compliance in dynamic emissions markets

Two important design elements for emission trading programs are whether and to what extent firms are able to bank emissions permits, and how these programs are to be enforced. In this paper we present results from laboratory emissions markets designed to investigate enforcement and compliance when these markets allow permit banking. Banking is motivated by a decrease in the aggregate permit supply in the middle of multi-period trading sessions. Consistent with theoretical insights, our experiments suggest that high permit violation penalties have little deterrence value in dynamic emissions markets, and that the main challenge of enforcing these programs is to motivate truthful self-reports of emissions.