Proposing an information criterion for individual-based models developed in a pattern-oriented modelling framework

Individual-based models (IBMs) have been improved in quality and reliability in recent years with an approach called pattern-oriented modelling (POM). POM proposes guidelines to develop models reproducing multiple patterns observed on the field and to test systematically how well the IBMs reproduce them. POM studies used generally traditional methods of goodness of fit such as the sum of squares evaluation or ad hoc comparisons of fitting errors and variations. Model selection, however, can be a rigorous statistical approach based on information theory and information criteria such as the Akaike's information criterion (AIC) or the deviance information criterion (DIC). So far, it has not been tried to link POM to these rigorous techniques. The main problems to achieve that are: (a) the difficulty to have likelihood functions for IBMs’ parameters and (b) the possibility to obtain posterior distributions of IBMs’ parameters given the patterns to reproduce. In a first part, this paper answers problem (a) by proposing and explaining how to calculate a deviance measure (POMDEV) for models developed in a context of POM. And while answering the second problem, a second part of the paper proposes an information criterion for model selection in a POM context (the pattern-oriented modelling information criterion: POMIC). This criterion does not yet have the same theoretical foundation as, e.g., AIC, but uses formal analogies to the DIC. In a third part POMIC is tested with a modelling exercise. This exercise shows the potential of POMIC to use multiple patterns for selecting among multiple potential submodels and eventually select the most parsimonious and well fitting model version. We conclude that POMIC, although being a heuristically derived approach, can greatly improve the POM framework.     

Cr/γ-Al_2O_3对乙酸乙酯的催化燃烧

使用浸渍法制备不同负载量的Cr/γ-Al_2O_3催化剂,研究乙酸乙酯的催化燃烧.BET,XRD结果表明,Cr在γ-Al_2O_3上负载存在分散阈值效应,负载量在阈值以下时呈单层分散形式,在超过阈值时Cr形成结晶,实验测得单层分散阈值与理论计算一致.Raman结果表明Cr在单层分散时为Cr~(6+),而在非单层分散时为Cr_2O_3.催化乙酸乙酯燃烧的活性研究显示,阈值效应对催化活性有显著影响:催化活性在单层分散阈值时最好,此时活化能最高,指前因子最大.     

移动电话的电磁辐射对人体伤害及其预防措施的探讨

随着移动电话的迅速普及 ,由其产生的电磁辐射对人体健康的影响已成为人们关心的热门话题。笔者就移动电话的电磁辐射对人体的伤害及其有关预防措施进行探讨。旨在提醒人们正确使用手机 ,尽量减少手机辐射对人体健康的影响 ,起到宣传教育和指导作用     

SAMPLING FRAME FOR IMPROVING PEBBLE COUNT ACCURACY IN COARSE GRAVEL‐BED STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Improved sampling techniques are needed to increase the accuracy of pebble‐count particle‐size distributions used for stream studies in gravel‐bed streams. However, pebble counts are prone to operator errors introduced through subjective particle selection, serial correlation, and inaccurate particle‐size measurements. Errors in particle‐size measurements can be minimized by using a gravel template. Operator influence on particle selection can be minimized by using a sampling frame, 60 by 60 cm, in which sampling points are identified by the cross points of thin elastic bands. Serial correlation can be minimized by adjusting the spacing between the cross points and setting it equal to the dominant large particle size (=D₉₅). In a field test in a cobble‐bed stream, the sampling frame developed in this study produced slightly coarser size distributions, particularly in the cobble range, than the traditional heel‐to‐toe walk that selects particles with a blind touch at the tip of the boot. The sampling frame produced more similar sampling results between two operators than heel‐to‐toe walks. The difference between the two sampling methods is attributed to an unbiased selection of fine and coarse particles when using the sampling frame.     

区域高时空分辨率VOC天然源排放清单的建立

将中尺度气象模式MM5应用于估算VOC天然源排放的研究,建立了高时空分辨率VOC天然源排放清单的估算方法.根据方法需要,确定了我国部分树木排放异戊二烯和萜烯的标准排放因子,各植被类型排放各种VOC的标准排放因子,以及各植被类型季节平均的叶生物量密度.应用该方法估算了华南地区满足区域空气质量数值模拟要求的高时空分辨率VOC天然源排放清单.结果表明,华南地区夏季典型日的VOC天然源排放总量约1.12×10⁴t,VOC排放速率具有明显的时空分布,其中地理分布取决于植被类型及其分布,日变化规律则依赖于太阳辐射和温度的高低.并讨论了VOC天然源排放估算过程中误差的来源     

AN EMPIRICALLY‐BASED SEQUENTIAL GROUND WATER MONITORING NETWORK DESIGN PROCEDURE1

ABSTRACT: A procedure using a simple, empirically‐based model that makes efficient use of available information has been developed for designing a ground water monitoring well network. A moving plume is described by siting wells in a sequential manner, relying upon two‐dimensional concentration data obtained from previously installed wells to determine the locations of future wells. Data sets from two well known, densely monitored natural gradient tracer studies were used to test the procedure. Plumes defined by all information in the original networks were compared to those defined by reduced networks designed by the new procedure. The new procedure tracked the plumes using only a portion of that information. The new procedure could have reduced the number of wells in the original tests by about 50 percent without appreciable loss of plume information as measured by plume location and extent and by tracer mass.     

低空分层降水和云水同步釆集系统的开发和应用

笔者自行开发并研制了低空(＜1 km)分层降水和云水采集系统,该系统成功地应用于福建省厦门市和贵州省贵阳市酸性降水来源和成因的研究中,取得了显著的成果,为探讨酸性降水来源和成因提供了有效的技术手段和支持。该系统可以在一定程度上代替航空测量,目前国内外的类似研究中没有使用该系统进行样品采集的先例,因此该系统的开发填补了国内外相关研究领域的空白。      

一次污染物对臭氧生成的影响研究

利用OZIPR模式模拟研究一次污染物对φ(O₃)的影响,研究设计3组比较方案:VOC和NO_x初始浓度比,VOC和NO_x排放比以及VOC排放中各组分所占比例的变化对臭氧生成浓度的影响.结果表明:随着VOC与NO_x初始浓度比和排放比的增大,φ(O₃)增长速率提高,其最大值出现时间提前,并且呈现先上升后下降的变化规律.结合O₃等浓度线分析认为,深圳市O₃污染属于VOC敏感型,控制VOC是控制φ(O₃)的有效途径.改变VOC组分的研究表明,控制VOC排放时应重点控制含乙烯、二甲苯、三甲苯较多的污染源.      

大气气溶胶中有机成分研究进展

有机物是大气气溶胶的重要组成部分,尤其是在细颗粒中,可占其干重的10%～70%。由于有机气溶胶的健康及气候效应,有机物的组成、源分布、颗粒行为等的研究越来越受到人们的重视。其中,有机物成分的鉴别和定量已成为近年来的研究热点。在分析中,就目前有机气溶胶的采样、有机成分提取、分离及定性、定量分析方法进行了综述,并比较了各种方法的优缺点。     

有机硫恶臭物质采样和分析检测技术研究

本研究以二甲二硫醚和甲硫醇为代表对有机硫恶臭物质的采样浓缩,热解析和ＧＣ,ＧＣ／ＭＳ的色谱分离,定性鉴定和定量检测方法进行了实验技术研究。与此同时研制开发了恶臭污染监测的系列配套装置－采样管,微型采样泵,热解析色谱进行装置和标准气体物质发生装置。经筛选确认,国产ＧＤＸＥ１０５采样管可对ＤＭＤＳ和ＣＨ３ＳＨ实现直接常温采样浓缩,样品回收率分别为１００％和６０％。ＧＣ／ＦＰＤ对二种硫化物的检出下限分别