Model simulations of dissolved oxygen characteristics of Minnesota lakes: Past and future

A deterministic, one-dimensional, unsteady numerical model has been developed, tested, and applied to simulate mean daily dissolved oxygen (DO) characteristics in 27 lake classes in the state of Minnesota. Reaeration and photosynthesis are the oxygen sources, while respiration, sedimentary, and biochemical water column oxygen demand are the sinks of oxygen in the model. The lake classes are differentiated by surface area (A _s), maximum depth (H _max), and trophic status expressed as Secchi depth (Z _s). Because lake stratification is most important to lake oxygen dynamics, simulated DO characteristics are plotted in terms of a stratification parameterA _s/H _max ^0.25 and Secchi depthZ _s. Simulations provide DO profiles on a daily time scale. Specific DO characteristics of ecological and environmental interest are epilimnetic DO, hypolimnetic DO, DO gradient from surface to bottom, and DO minima and maxima. Specific results are as follows: Simulated mean daily and weekly DO values in the epilimnion of all lakes for both past and future climate scenarios are near saturation over the summer season. Hypolimnetic DO values depend strongly on lake morphometry, trophic status, and time throughout the summer season. Future climate conditions are specified as the historical records from 1955 to 1979, adjusted (monthly) by the 2 × CO₂ GISS model output to account for doubling of atmospheric CO₂. With this climate change, weekly averaged epilimnetic DO is projected to drop by less than 2 mg/liter, and will remain above 7 mg/liter throughout the open water season. The hypolimnetic DO reductions after climate change are on the order of 2–8 mg/liter. Periods of anoxia are longer by as much as 80 days. Those changes would alter water quality dynamics in lakes and have a profound effect on lake ecosystems including indigenous fishes. The results presented are useful for evaluating environmental management options.     

广深准高速铁路安全管理模式探讨

广深准高速铁路的开通运营，以及广深铁路公司股份制改造，从客观上要求改革与优化铁路安全管理体制，建工新的铁路安全管理模式。本文构造了广深铁路安全管理模式，满足国家确定的“企业负责，行业管理，国家监察，群众监督”的安全工作体制要求，引入风险管理，实行事故保险，提出应该以安全文化作为新模式的软件，优化新的安全管理体制。     

土壤侵蚀信息系统的结构设计

本文介绍了黄土地区土壤侵蚀信息系统的建造原理与方法。分析探讨了土壤侵蚀各因子计算机自动提取的算法，以及土壤侵蚀预测模型的构造方法，并用灰色控制系统的原理确定了模型的参数。并以山西省离石县王家沟流域羊道沟为例进行了试验研究。     

COMPARISON OF PROCESS‐BASED AND ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACHES FOR STREAMFLOW MODELING IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: The performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and artificial neural network (ANN) models in simulating hydrologic response was assessed in an agricultural watershed in southeastern Pennsylvania. All of the performance evaluation measures including Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (E) and coefficient of determination (R²) suggest that the ANN monthly predictions were closer to the observed flows than the monthly predictions from the SWAT model. More specifically, monthly streamflow E and R² were 0.54 and 0.57, respectively, for the SWAT model calibration period, and 0.71 and 0.75, respectively, for the ANN model training period. For the validation period, these values were ?0.17 and 0.34 for the SWAT and 0.43 and 0.45 for the ANN model. SWAT model performance was affected by snowmelt events during winter months and by the model's inability to adequately simulate base flows. Even though this and other studies using ANN models suggest that these models provide a viable alternative approach for hydrologic and water quality modeling, ANN models in their current form are not spatially distributed watershed modeling systems. However, considering the promising performance of the simple ANN model, this study suggests that the ANN approach warrants further development to explicitly address the spatial distribution of hydrologic/water quality processes within watersheds.     

长年关水稻田耕作改制的选择

试验研究表明,当早稻收获时间作晚稻才开始幼穗分化,即适宜早、晚稻出穗开花之间有60多天的时间,种植双杂间作稻就可获得好的收成,效果、效益都很显著。1992年用D 优287间汕优63,在达县永进乡的示范田中个别田块产量已达15t/ha,而盆地丘陵区适宜早、晚稻出穗开花之间的时间多数地区不到70天,种植双杂连作稻有困难。且双杂间作稻在抗灾增产,合理利用农村劳动力,提高稻田复种等方面优于双杂连作稻。因此,四川盆地丘陵区的中稻→冬水田在耕作改制中发展部分双杂间作稻是恰当的,其范围在巴中、盐亭、简阳一线以南海拔400m 以下的广大丘陵区。     

NETWORK AND SUBWATERSHED PARAMETERS EXTRACTED FROM DIGITAL ELEVATION MODELS: THE BILLS CREEK EXPERIENCE1

ABSTRACT: An automated extraction of channel network and sub-watershed characteristics from digital elevation models (DEM) is performed by model DEDNM. This model can process DEM data of limited vertical resolution representing low relief terrain. Such representations often include ill-defined drainage boundaries and indeterminate flow paths. The application watershed is an 84 km² low relief watershed in southwestern Oklahoma. The standard for validation is the network and subwatershed parameters defined by the blue line method on USGS 7.5–minute topographic maps. Evaluation of the generated and validation networks by visual comparisons shows a high degree of correlation. Comparison of selected network parameters (channel length, slope, drainage density, etc.) and of drainage network composition (bifurcation, length, slope, and area ratios) shows that, on the average, the generated parameters are within 5 percent of those derived from the validation network. The largest discrepancies were found for the channel slope values. The results of this application demonstrate that DEDNM effectively addresses network definition problems often encountered in low relief terrain and that it can generate accurate network and subwatershed parameters under those conditions.     

长江流域商品粮基地建设与农业持续发展

长江流域横跨我国中亚热带,光、热、水气候资源及其时空组合优势明显,土地自然生产力较高。粮食生产在全国占有重要地位。但由于流域内山地比重大,人口稠密,人均土地资源偏少,在现有耕地资源有限和粮食市场不稳等的多重压力下,历史时期内形成的“南粮北调”正逐渐被“北粮南调”所取代。在分析长江流域粮食生产现状和近二十年来商品粮基地建设对粮食生产的促进作用的基础上,从流域经济持续发展角度,提出了发挥长江流域粮食生     

Multicriteria evaluation of simulated logging scenarios in a tropical rain forest

Forest growth models are useful tools for investigating the long-term impacts of logging. In this paper, the results of the rain forest growth model FORMIND were assessed by a multicriteria decision analysis. The main processes covered by FORMIND include tree growth, mortality, regeneration and competition. Tree growth is calculated based on a carbon balance approach. Trees compete for light and space; dying large trees fall down and create gaps in the forest. Sixty-four different logging scenarios for an initially undisturbed forest stand at Deramakot (Malaysia) were simulated. The scenarios differ regarding the logging cycle, logging method, cutting limit and logging intensity. We characterise the impacts with four criteria describing the yield, canopy opening and changes in species composition. Multicriteria decision analysis was used for the first time to evaluate the scenarios and identify the efficient ones. Our results plainly show that reduced-impact logging scenarios are more 'efficient' than the others, since in these scenarios forest damage is minimised without significantly reducing yield. Nevertheless, there is a trade-off between yield and achieving a desired ecological state of logged forest; the ecological state of the logged forests can only be improved by reducing yields and enlarging the logging cycles. Our study also demonstrates that high cutting limits or low logging intensities cannot compensate for the high level of damage caused by conventional logging techniques.     

Toward Adaptive Management: The Impacts of Different Management Strategies on Fish Stocks and Fisheries in a Large Regulated Lake

We applied the adaptive management approach to analyze the demand and feasibility of adaptive management of fish stocks in a large regulated lake, Oulujärvi, in northern Finland. The process consisted of four phases: (1) analysis of the current state of the fisheries system (fishers, related markets and industry, fisheries researches and authorities, related organizations, etc.); (2) analysis of the objectives of different stakeholders; (3) the composition of alternative management strategies and assessment of their impacts; and (4) recommendations for future management. We used catch statistics from the period 1973–1995 to analyze fish stocks and fishing. Fish species involved were brown trout (Salmo trutta L.), whitefish [Coregonus lavaretus (L.) sl.], vendace (Coregonus albula L.); and pikeperch (Stizostedion lucioperca L.). Questionnaires and interviews were applied to ascertain the opinions of different groups of fishermen. Several models and cost–benefit analysis were used to assess the ecological, economic, and social impacts of three alternative management strategies. The results emphasize that when determining stocking levels and fishing regulations, the system should be considered as a whole, and impacts on major fish species and different groups of fishermen should be assessed. The stocking policy and fishing regulations should also be flexible to accommodate changing biotic and societal conditions. The key questions in applying the adaptive management process in Oulujärvi fisheries are how to determine clear objectives for fisheries management, find a fisheries management structure that provides workable interactions between different stakeholders, and arrange cost-effective monitoring. The lessons learned from the Oulujärvi experience and recommendations for fisheries management are relevant to other lakes with conflicting objectives of different stakeholders.     

Using the ECLPSS software environment to build a spatially explicit component-based model of ozone effects on forest ecosystems

We have developed a modeling framework to support grid-based simulation of ecosystems at multiple spatial scales, the Ecological Component Library for Parallel Spatial Simulation (ECLPSS). ECLPSS helps ecologists to build robust spatially explicit simulations of ecological processes by providing a growing library of reusable interchangeable components and automating many modeling tasks. To build a model, a user selects components from the library, and then writes new components as needed. Some of these components represent specific ecological processes, such as how environmental factors influence the growth of individual trees. Other components provide simulation support such as reading and writing files in various formats to allow inter-operability with other software. The framework manages components and variables, the order of operations, and spatial interactions. The framework provides only simulation support; it does not include ecological functions or assumptions. This separation allows biologists to build models without becoming computer scientists, while computer scientists can improve the framework without becoming ecologists. The framework is designed to operate on multiple platforms and be used across networks via a World Wide Web-based user interface. ECLPSS is designed for use with both single processor computers for small models, and multiple processors in order to simulate large regions with complex interactions among many individuals or ecological compartments. To test Version 1.0 of ECLPSS, we created a model to evaluate the effect of tropospheric ozone on forest ecosystem dynamics. This model is a reduced-form version of two existing models: , which represents an individual tree, and , which represents forest stand growth and succession. This model demonstrates key features of ECLPSS, such as the ability to examine the effects of cell size and model structure on model predictions.