Na_2CO_3对回填材料膨润土的改型效果分析

以新疆柯尔碱膨润土为原料,加入不同比例的Na2CO3改型剂,研究改型剂添加对膨润土胶质价、膨胀容和pH值的影响。另外,考虑到压实膨润土的非饱和渗透特性对于评价缓冲回填材料性能具有重要意义,故采用压力膜仪测量压实Na2CO3改型膨润土和原土的土水特征曲线,分析研究二者基质吸力随体积含水率变化的相关关系。实验结果显示,添加Na2CO3改型剂可以增大膨润土的胶质价、膨胀容和pH值,成功地将膨润土中的钙蒙脱石转化为钠蒙脱石,其对柯尔碱膨润土pH值的作用效果满足地质处置库对缓冲回填材料的要求;改型后膨润土的持水能力明显大于原土。     

面向突发性水污染事件的三维可视化系统

针对突发性水污染事件的突发性、复杂性与潜在的次生衍生危害等特点,设计并开发了面向突发性水污染事件的三维可视化系统。对建设三维可视化系统的需求进行了分析,提出了系统的四层体系结构,基于三维地理信息系统World Wind组件,采用三维可视化环境建模、海量数据缓存机制以及基础地理信息集成等信息技术,开发了系统的基本应用与高级应用,将系统应用到2005年发生在松花江流域的突发性水污染事件中。实例表明:所设计的三维可视化系统具有集成性、可扩展性和较好三维表现力等特点,支持海量数据与复杂应用的集成与三维展示,为突发性水污染事件的空间模拟和决策支持提供支撑。     

中国区域能源效率发展演变趋势的R/S分形分析

改革开放以来中国能源效率不断地提高,但是在某些年份存在波动现象.采用非线性分形理论及分形分析R/S方法,科学定量地描述了中国以及各个地区能源效率的演变趋势.首先采用分形理论对1978-2008年的中国能源效率时间序列数据进行研究,结果显示,中国能源效率发展演变存在Hurst现象,具有明显的分形特征.并依照“五年计划”来划分时间序列样本为研究区间,结合“五年计划”详尽地解释说明了中国能源效率变动的原因.然后将数据扩大为样本期为1995-2008年29地区的面板数据,采用面板变系数模型进一步对各个地区的能源效率进行分析,发现除海南外其他地区的能源效率演变过程中具有明显的持续性规律,各个地区能源效率将继续保持增长.西部6个地区以及东北三省的能源效率演变趋势高于全国水平,说明“西部大开发”战略和“振兴东北”战略都已经显效.     

典型流域土地利用/覆被变化及对水质的影响--以太湖上游浙江西苕溪流域为例

利用1985、1995和20D0年的TM数据及水质资料，运用GIS和水质指数法研究西苔溪流域的土地利用／覆被变化及其水环境效应。结果表明：流域内耕地不断减少，建设用地持续扩大，林地前期减少后期缓慢增加；林地和耕地是流域内的主要土地利用类型，二者面积之和占流域面积的比例在三个时段均在92％以上；空间集中性及斑块碎化是土地利用空间格局变化的主要表现，建设用地斑块数量增多且斑块面积明显增大，饼地面积减少但斑块数量增多。研究时段内流域水质在时间上呈逐步恶化趋势，在空间上则表现为自上游至下游逐渐下降，其中，1996-2000年，研究河段内水质指数下降幅度达30％左右；只治理点污染源仅使水质指数增加6．5％左右，表明影响水质的主要因素是土地利用变化导致的面源污染。     

大坝拦截对河流水溶解组分化学组成的影响分析——以夏季乌江渡水库为例

以乌江渡水库为主要研究对象，揭示了大坝拦截条件下的夏季水化学特征：阴离子以HCO-3,SO2-4为主，阳离子以Ca2+,Mg2+为主，其余离子含量低于10%，说明了碳酸盐岩的风化对水体化学组成起到了主要控制作用，蒸发盐岩石的风化对水体化学组成影响较小。水库水体存在温度分层现象，形成了不同层位的水体有着不同的水化学组成，即水化学分层。水化学的分层形成了溶解组分在水库垂直深度上的规律分布，比如受藻类的影响，Si和叶绿素随深度成相反的变化特征；HCO-3受光合作用和有机质降解的影响，30 m 以上随着水深的增加而递增，30 m 以下呈现相反趋势；水库泄水方式明显改变了水化学各种参数和离子在水体中的分配。乌江水库两主要支流（息烽河和偏岩河）分别对乌江渡坝前水体中的Ca2+,SO2-4,HCO-3,Mg2+和K+,Na+,Cl-有贡献。网箱养鱼、生活污水、农业施肥、酸性矿山废水以及酸雨沉降都会对水体造成不同程度的污染。     

基于复合生态系统理论的长沙湘江滨水区景观资源评价与优化

近年来,随着我国经济的飞速发展、社会经济的转型,以及人们环境意识的提高,滨水区开发已成为我国城市开发建设的热点。城市滨水区景观规划设计研究对于合理、充分利用城市滨水区景观资源,塑造特色鲜明的城市形象,提高城市生态环境质量,促进城市滨水区开发有着重要意义。从复合生态系统理论的角度,在湘江滨水区景观资源调查、景观资源分类的基础上,运用灰色聚类法对湘江滨水区景观资源进行定量评价,提出景观资源优化思路,探讨滨水区景观规划设计的途径。认为现代城市大规模滨水区更新改造和开发大背景下的城市滨水区景观规划设计,应尊重城市地域性特点、文化内涵和风土人情,并与传统的滨水活动有机结合,保护和突出城市历史格局和风貌特色。     

The health sector gap in the southern Africa crisis in 2002/2003

The southern Africa crisis represents the first widespread emergency in a region with a mature HIV/AIDS epidemic. It provides a steep learning curve for the international humanitarian system in understanding and responding to the complex interactions between the epidemic and the causes and the effects of this crisis. It also provoked much debate about the severity and causes of this emergency, and the appropriateness of the response by the humanitarian community. The authors argue that the over-emphasis on food aid delivery occurred at the expense of other public health interventions, particularly preventative and curative health services. Health service needs were not sufficiently addressed despite the early recognition that ill-health related to HIV/AIDS was a major vulnerability factor. This neglect occurred because analytical frameworks were too narrowly focused on food security, and large-scale support to health service delivery was seen as a long-term developmental issue that could not easily be dealt with by short-term humanitarian action. Furthermore, there were insufficient countrywide data on acute malnutrition, mortality rates and performance of the public health system to make better-balanced evidence-based decisions. In this crisis, humanitarian organisations providing health services could not assume their traditional roles of short-term assistance in a limited geographical area until the governing authorities resume their responsibilities. However, relegating health service delivery as a long-term developmental issue is not acceptable. Improved multisectoral analytical frameworks that include a multidisciplinary team are needed to ensure all aspects of public health are dealt with in similar future emergencies. Humanitarian organisations must advocate for improved delivery and access to health services in this region. They can target limited geographical areas with high mortality and acute malnutrition rates to deliver their services. Finally, to address the underlying problem of the health sector gap, a long-term strategy to ensure improved and sustainable health sector performance can only be accomplished with truly adequate resources. This will require renewed efforts on part of governments, donors and the international community. Public health interventions, complementing those addressing food insecurity, were and are still needed to reduce the impact of the crisis, and to allow people to re-establish their livelihoods. These will increase the population's resilience to prevent or mitigate future disasters.     

旱地长期定位施肥对土壤剖面硝态氮分布与累积的影响

在 １５ ａ长期定位试验基础上研究了黄土高原旱地长期施用不同用量和配比的氮、磷肥对土壤剖面中硝态氮分布和累积的影响。结果表明：长期大量施用氮肥,在土壤剖面 １００～１８０ ｃｍ之间形成硝态氮累积层,峰值出现在 １４０ ｃｍ处,最大值为 ６７．９２ｍｇ／ｋｇ（单施 Ｎ １８０ ｋｇ／ｈｍ~２）; 配合施用磷肥可以降低土壤剖面硝态氮质量分数,根据试验,提出了旱地合理施肥的氮磷肥用量。     

可溶性有机质对芘在泥炭和高岭土上吸附和解吸的影响

为掌握可溶性有机质(DOM)对憎水性有机污染物吸附和解吸行为的影响,本研究选取四环多环芳烃——芘作为目标污染物,通过批平衡实验研究了不同分子量组分DOM对芘在泥炭和高岭土上吸附和解吸的影响.结果表明,吸附和解吸数据均可以用Freundlich模型很好地拟合(R2＞0.93).DOM的添加抑制了泥炭对芘的吸附,并且分子量...     

Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife

Wildlife management is limited by uncontrolled and often unrecognized environmental variation, by limited capabilities to observe and control animal populations, and by a lack of understanding about the biological processes driving population dynamics. In this paper I describe a comprehensive framework for management that includes multiple models and likelihood values to account for structural uncertainty, along with stochastic factors to account for environmental variation, random sampling, and partial controllability. Adaptive optimization is developed in terms of the optimal control of incompletely understood populations, with the expected value of perfect information measuring the potential for improving control through learning. The framework for optimal adaptive control is generalized by including partial observability and non-adaptive, sample-based updating of model likelihoods. Passive adaptive management is derived as a special case of constrained adaptive optimization, representing a potentially efficient suboptimal alternative that nonetheless accounts for structural uncertainty.