Projecting Climate Change Effects on Forest Net Primary Productivity in Subtropical Louisiana,USA

This study projected responses of forest net primary productivity (NPP) to three climate change scenarios at a resolution of 5 km × 5 km across the state of Louisiana, USA. In addition, we assessed uncertainties associated with the NPP projection at the grid and state levels. Climate data of the scenarios were derived from Community Climate System Model outputs. Changes in annual NPP between 2000 and 2050 were projected with the forest ecosystem model PnET-II. Results showed that forest productivity would increase under climate change scenarios A1B and A2, but with scenario B1, it would peak during 2011–2020 and then decline. The projected average NPP under B1 over the years from 2000 to 2050 was significantly different from those under A1B and A2. Forest NPP appeared to be primarily a function of temperature, not precipitation. Uncertainties of the NPP projection were due to large spatial resolution of the climate variables. Overall, this study suggested that in order to project effects of climate change on forest ecosystem at regional level, modeling uncertainties could be reduced by increasing the spatial resolution of the climate projections.     

Assessment of Uncertainty in Long-Term Mass Balances for Acidification Assessments: A MAGIC Model Exercise

Long-term (1860–2010) catchment mass balance calculations rely on models and assumptions which are sources of uncertainty in acidification assessments. In this article, we report on an application of MAGIC to model acidification at the four Swedish IM forested catchments that have been subject to differing degrees of acidification stress. Uncertainties in the modeled mass balances were mainly associated with the deposition scenario and assumptions about sulfate adsorption and soil mass. Estimated base cation (BC) release rates (weathering) varied in a relatively narrow range of 47–62 or 42–47 meq m⁻² year⁻¹, depending on assumptions made about soil cation exchange capacity and base saturation. By varying aluminum solubility or introducing a dynamic weathering feedback that allowed BC release to increase at more acidic pHs, a systematic effect on predicted changes in acid neutralizing capacity (ΔANC ca. 10–41 μeq l⁻¹) and pH (ca. ΔpH = 0.1–0.6) at all sites was observed. More robust projections of future changes in pH and ANC are dependent on reducing uncertainties in BC release rates, the timing, and extent of natural acidification through BC uptake by plants, temporal changes in soil element pools, and fluxes of Al between compartments.     

Use of fugacity model to analyze temperature-dependent removal of micro-contaminants in sewage treatment plants

Effluents from sewage treatment plants (STPs) are known to contain residual micro-contaminants including endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) despite the utilization of various removal processes. Temperature alters the efficacy of removal processes; however, experimental measurements of EDC removal at various temperatures are limited. Extrapolation of EDC behavior over a wide temperature range is possible using available physicochemical property data followed by the correction of temperature dependency. A level II fugacity-based STP model was employed by inputting parameters obtained from the literature and estimated by the US EPA’s Estimations Programs Interface (EPI) including EPI’s BIOWIN for temperature-dependent biodegradation half-lives. EDC removals in a three-stage activated sludge system were modeled under various temperatures and hydraulic retention times (HRTs) for representative compounds of various properties. Sensitivity analysis indicates that temperature plays a significant role in the model outcomes. Increasing temperature considerably enhances the removal of β-estradiol, ethinyestradiol, bisphenol, phenol, and tetrachloroethylene, but not testosterone with the highest biodegradation rate. The shortcomings of BIOWIN were mitigated by the correction of highly temperature-dependent biodegradation rates using the Arrhenius equation. The model predicts well the effects of operating temperature and HRTs on the removal via volatilization, adsorption, and biodegradation. The model also reveals that an impractically long HRT is needed to achieve a high EDC removal. The STP model along with temperature corrections is able to provide some useful insight into the different patterns of STP performance, and useful operational considerations relevant to EDC removal at winter low temperatures.     

Contaminants in the coastal karst aquifer system along the Caribbean coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

Intensive land development as a result of the rapidly growing tourism industry in the “Riviera Maya” region of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico may result in contamination of groundwater resources that eventually discharge into Caribbean coastal ecosystems. We deployed two types of passive sampling devices into groundwater flowing through cave systems below two communities to evaluate concentrations of contaminants and to indicate the possible sources. Pharmaceuticals and personal care products accumulated in the samplers could only have originated from domestic sewage. PAHs indicated contamination by runoff from highways and other impermeable surfaces and chlorophenoxy herbicides accumulated in samplers deployed near a golf course indicated that pesticide applications to turf are a source of contamination. Prevention and mitigation measures are needed to ensure that expanding development does not impact the marine environment and human health, thus damaging the tourism-based economy of the region.     

试用“三论”探索我国安全生产宏观管理模式

本文试用系统论、控制论和信息论的观点探索我国安全生产宏管理模式。文中主要分析了生产安全系统的内涵;行业生产安全系统的内涵;以及生产安全系统的宏观控制的内涵。并指出了行业生产安全系统是生产安全系统的主体控制系统,劳动安全监察系统是生产安全系统的强化控制系统。     

试论沙漠化灾害危险度评价因子体系

本文通过对国内外沙漠化灾害危险度评价因子体系研究现状的分析，从我国实际出发，根据沙漠化灾害危险度的基本内容，首次提出了沙漠化灾害危险度评价因子体系，并给出了相应因子的分级标准。     

灾害基本成因研究

本文依据灾害的生态经济性质,在对各类灾害的具体成因进行概括与抽象的基础上,从地球系统、自然生态系统、社会经济系统、城市系统的运动与发展及灾害与这些系统的相互联系和相互作用等方面研究各类灾害的共同成因,即灾害的基本成因,并对其进行系统分析。     

Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.     

关于重大隐患监控GIS模式的研究

系统地分析了重大危险源、事故隐患的地域监管体系以及隐患监控的新技术应用基础 ;提出了职业安全卫生监管体系中的危险源和隐患监控 ,应该分为过程安全监控和安全目标监控两个层次。隐患监管功能的有效实现 :隐患监控的技术载体则越来越依托信息网络的发展 ;重大隐患监管体系特别适合采用地理信息系统     

ESTIMATING MARYLAND CRITICAL AREA ACVS IMPACT ON FUTURE NONPOINT POLLUTION ALONG THE RHODE RWER ESTUARY1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the results of an investigation of the effects of the Maryland Critical Area Act on generation of non-point source loads of phosphorus, nitrogen, and sediment to the Rhode River estuary. The Simple Method model, the Marcus and Kearney regression model, and the CREAMS model were used to estimate annual loads under: (1) present conditions, (2) maximum land use development allowable under the Act, and (3) two sets of future land use conditions that might occur if the Act were not in place. Results indicate that the Critical Area Act can reduce the present generation of nonpoint nutrient and sediment loadings 20–30 percent from the regulated area. These reductions can occur while preserving agricultural lands and allowing limited residential and urban development. The decrease in nutrient loadings is primarily dependent upon implementation and enforcement of agricultural best management practices (BMPs). The BMPs could reduce present agricultural nutrient loadings by 90 percent to a level comparable to loadings from residential areas. The estimated effectiveness of the Critical Area Act is even greater when compared to potential future nutrient loadings if development in the area remains unregulated. Unrestricted residential and urban development could increase nutrient loadings by 200 percent to 1000 percent as compared to controlled development under Critical Area Act guidelines. The Critical Area Act primarily prevents these future increases by severely limiting woodland cutting, with lesser results obtained by requiring urban BMPs.