论事故与系统危险性的关系

对安全评价中的一些基本概念和参数作了明确的论述,如危险、事故、系统危险性、事故链、固有危险和危险特性、发生事故的难易度与事故概率以及系统可靠度。对澄清当前尚有争论的概念有所帮助,有利于安全评价的顺利进行,也有利于安全科学学科建设。最后对系统危险性的发展趋势作了几点预测。     

SIMULATION/OPTIMIZATION TECHNIQUES FOR MULTI-BASIN WATER RESOURCE PLANNING1

A set of simulation and optimization tools capable of analyzing the development and operation of a complex, multi-basin, interconnected water resource are explained. These models provide valuable information regarding the important questions: (1) “When should new projects be build?” (2) “How big should they be?” and (3) “How should the system be operated?” Since these tools were developed by and for practicing engineers, their applicability to real-world problems is mandatory. To assure this, testing was done on an actual proposed project, the Texas Water System.     

Regional Representativeness of Swedish Reference Lakes

/ Recent focus has been placed on ecoregion delineations for providing an appropriate framework for monitoring and assessment of region-specific attainable water/habitat quality. Using an ecoregion approach to stratify variance, this study was conducted to determine whether earlier (subjectively) selected Swedish reference lakes may be considered as regionally representative reference sites when compared with a randomly selected lake population. Predictive modeling by discriminant function analysis with lakes classified by ecoregion and lake surface area and six physicochemical variables showed that the greater majority of reference lakes may be considered as regionally representative. The highest proportion of lake "misclassifications" occurred in the boreonemoral ecoregion, a relatively diverse ecoregion of southern Sweden. This apparent bias may be in part be due to the criteria used in selecting regional reference lakes. In the earlier selection of reference lakes emphasis was placed on lakes not being adversely affected by land usage or pollutant discharges, consequently forest lakes were often overrepresented and sites in agricultural areas underrepresented in the selected reference sites. As a complement to predictive modeling, PCA ordination showed the placement of reference lakes within the random lake population and indicated where reference sites might be missing along potentially important ecological gradients. KEY WORDS: Regionalization; Ecoregion; Representativeness; Reference; Ordination; Modeling; Temperate lakes     

红壤丘陵区土地利用变化对土壤质量影响

以鄂南红壤丘陵典型区的三个村为代表 ,应用地理信息系统对 1981和 1998年两个时期的土地利用变化和土壤质量进行对比研究 ,分析了土地利用变化对土壤质量的影响。结果表明 :研究区土地利用结构总体上具有农业型特点 ,17a间水田减少了 2 1% ;其余的利用方式则有不同幅度的增加 ,居民地、水域、林地、园地和旱地增加了 4 2 .2 %、99.6 %、8%、5 6 .8%和 8%。土壤质量有从优劣两端向中等靠拢的趋势 ,17a后 、 、 和 等地面积分别减少 18.6 %、12 .2 %、2 9.6 %和 2 5 % ; 等地增幅达 5 1.9%。土地利用方式及管理措施是影响土壤质量演变方向和强度的关键因子 ,园地和林地的土壤质量大多得到明显改善 ,水田的Δ SQI多数呈下降的趋势 ,旱地的土壤质量变化比较复杂 ,与土地利用结构相关。依此 ,本文探讨了定向培育土壤质量的途径     

重大事故应急救援法律法规体系建设

重大事故应急救援法律法规体系作为生产安全应急救援体系建设的重要内容之一 ,在重特大事故多发的今天 ,已显得尤为重要。笔者结合国内外重大事故应急救援立法的现状 ,论述加强我国应急救援法律法规体系建设的必要性 ;提出重大应急救援法律法规体系建设要从法律、行政法规及部门规章、地方性法规及规章3个方面进行 ;同时提出建立联席会议制度、应急预案编制审核和备案制度、报告与信息发布制度、应急救援的分级响应制度、应急救援演习制度、应急救援资金补偿制度、应急救援的奖惩制度等急救援工作制度体系。最后 ,还强调建立重大事故应急救援体系对于提高政府对国家危机的管理能力有着深远的影响和意义。     

通才式安全工程专业课程设置的探讨

根据安全工程专业所处的学科结构体系 ,讨论了通才式安全工程专业高等教育课程设置所考虑的因素。提出了通才式安全工程专业高等教育课程的设置思想、专业基础课和主干课的学时比以及实践与理论相结合的实习方法。     

A composite medium approximation for unsaturated flow in layered sediments

Saturated-unsaturated flow in strictly layered sediments proceeds via conductors in parallel in the direction parallel to bedding, and via resistors in series in the direction perpendicular to bedding. On sufficiently small scales of space and time, flow in such media will be subject to approximate capillary equilibrium locally, which provides a basis for approximating the effective hydraulic conductivity of a composite multi-layer medium in terms of the conductivities of the individual layers. Equations for the hydraulic conductivity tensor in "composite medium approximation" (COMA) are given in a coordinate system aligned with bedding. Hydraulic conductivity parallel to bedding is generally larger than in the perpendicular direction. The anisotropy depends on the spread of the conductivity distribution, and tends to increase for dryer conditions. The COMA model was implemented in a multi-phase flow simulator and tested by comparison with high-resolution simulations in which all layering heterogeneity is resolved explicitly. Under favorable conditions, COMA is found to accurately represent sub-grid scale flow and transport processes, providing a practical method for simulating field-scale flow and transport in layered media. The approximation improves when layers are thinner, and when flow rates are smaller.     

Monitoring Forest Carbon Sequestration with Remote Sensing and Carbon Cycle Modeling

Sources and sinks of carbon associated with forests depend strongly on the management regime and spatial patterns in potential productivity. Satellite remote sensing can provide spatially explicit information on land cover, stand-age class, and harvesting. Carbon-cycle process models coupled to regional climate databases can provide information on potential rates of production and related rates of decomposition. The integration of remote sensing and modeling thus produces spatially explicit information on carbon storage and flux. This integrated approach was employed to compare carbon flux for the period 1992–1997 over two 165-km² areas in western Oregon. The Coast Range study area was predominately private land managed for timber production, whereas the West Cascades study area was predominantly public land that was less productive but experienced little harvesting in the 1990s. In the Coast Range area, 17% of the land base was harvested between 1991 and 2000. Much of the area was in relatively young, productive-age classes that simulations indicate are a carbon sink. Mean annual harvest removals from the Coast Range were greater than mean annual net ecosystem production. On the West Cascades study area, a relatively small proportion (< 1%) of the land was harvested and the area as a whole was accumulating carbon. The spatially and temporally explicit nature of this approach permits identification of mechanisms underlying land base carbon flux. Published online     

A GIS Model of Subsurface Water Potential for Aquatic Resource Inventory,Assessment, and Environmental Management

Biological, chemical, and physical attributes of aquatic ecosystems are often strongly influenced by groundwater sources. Nonetheless, widespread access to predictions of subsurface contributions to rivers, lakes, and wetlands at a scale useful to environmental managers is generally lacking. In this paper, we describe a neighborhood analysis approach for estimating topographic constraints on spatial patterns of recharge and discharge and discuss how this index has proven useful in research, management, and conservation contexts. The Michigan Rivers Inventory subsurface flux model (MRI-DARCY) used digital elevation and hydraulic conductivity inferred from mapped surficial geology to estimate spatial patterns of hydraulic potential. Model predictions were calculated in units of specific discharge (meters per day) for a 30-m²-cell raster map and interpreted as an index of potential subsurface water flux (shallow groundwater and event through-flow). The model was evaluated by comparison with measurements of groundwater-related attributes at watershed, stream segment, and local spatial scales throughout Lower Michigan (USA). Map-based predictions using MRI-DARCY accounted for 85% of the observed variation in base flow from 128 USGS gauges, 69% of the observed variation in discharge accrual from 48 river segments, and 29% of the residual variation in local groundwater flux from 33 locations as measured by hyporheic temperature profiles after factoring out the effects of climate. Although it does not incorporate any information about the actual water table surface, by quantifying spatial variation of key constraints on groundwater-related attributes, the model provides strata for more intensive study, as well as a useful spatial tool for regional and local conservation planning, fisheries management, wetland characterization, and stream assessment.     

Using the ECLPSS software environment to build a spatially explicit component-based model of ozone effects on forest ecosystems

We have developed a modeling framework to support grid-based simulation of ecosystems at multiple spatial scales, the Ecological Component Library for Parallel Spatial Simulation (ECLPSS). ECLPSS helps ecologists to build robust spatially explicit simulations of ecological processes by providing a growing library of reusable interchangeable components and automating many modeling tasks. To build a model, a user selects components from the library, and then writes new components as needed. Some of these components represent specific ecological processes, such as how environmental factors influence the growth of individual trees. Other components provide simulation support such as reading and writing files in various formats to allow inter-operability with other software. The framework manages components and variables, the order of operations, and spatial interactions. The framework provides only simulation support; it does not include ecological functions or assumptions. This separation allows biologists to build models without becoming computer scientists, while computer scientists can improve the framework without becoming ecologists. The framework is designed to operate on multiple platforms and be used across networks via a World Wide Web-based user interface. ECLPSS is designed for use with both single processor computers for small models, and multiple processors in order to simulate large regions with complex interactions among many individuals or ecological compartments. To test Version 1.0 of ECLPSS, we created a model to evaluate the effect of tropospheric ozone on forest ecosystem dynamics. This model is a reduced-form version of two existing models: , which represents an individual tree, and , which represents forest stand growth and succession. This model demonstrates key features of ECLPSS, such as the ability to examine the effects of cell size and model structure on model predictions.