复杂气井套管力学分析与可靠度评价

为建立考虑地层和套管参数随机性的套管可靠度评价理论方法,以便得到复杂井况下套管传统设计安全系数与可靠指标之间的关系,提出了非均匀地应力和内压联合作用下,沿套管最大外挤力方向管壁任意位置发生屈服失效时外壁等效均匀外挤力的计算方法;建立了套管抗挤和抗内压三轴强度计算公式以及有效内压计算方法;根据套管载荷和强度影响因素统计参数以及评价过程中参数测试标准值,利用蒙特卡洛法（MC）建立了完整的套管可靠度计算和评价方法;通过实例对传统安全系数与可靠指标的对应关系进行了研究。研究结果表明:指定条件下,套管安全系数与可靠指标之间存在对应关系;利用建立的方法编制计算程序可以为传统设计法中安全系数代表的安全程度进行量化;可靠度评价方法能够为安全系数的选取提供指导。     

Using Sediment Budgets to Investigate the Pathogen Flux Through Catchments

We demonstrate a materials budget approach to identify the main source areas and fluxes of pathogens through a landscape by using the flux of fine sediments as a proxy for pathogens. Sediment budgets were created for three subcatchment tributaries of the Googong Reservoir in southeastern New South Wales, Australia. Major inputs, sources, stores, and transport zones were estimated using sediment sampling, dam trap efficiency measures, and radionuclide tracing. Particle size analyses were used to quantify the fine-sediment component of the total sediment flux, from which the pathogen flux was inferred by considering the differences between the mobility and transportation of fine sediments and pathogens. Gullies were identified as important sources of fine sediment, and therefore of pathogens, with the pathogen risk compounded when cattle shelter in them during wet periods. The results also indicate that the degree of landscape modification influences both sediment and pathogen mobilization. Farm dams, swampy meadows and glades along drainage paths lower the flux of fine sediment, and therefore pathogens, in this landscape during low-flow periods. However, high-rainfall and high-flow events are likely to transport most of the fine sediment, and therefore pathogen, flux from the Googong landscape to the reservoir. Materials budgets are a repeatable and comparatively low-cost method for investigating the pathogen flux through a landscape.     

应用铅锶同位素示踪研究泉州某林地垂直剖面土壤中重金属污染及来源解析

分别用原子吸收光谱仪(AAS)和电感耦合等离子体质谱仪(ICP-MS)分析了泉州市某林地垂直剖面土壤中8种重金属元素(Sr、Ni、Fe、Cr、Cu、Mn、Pb、Zn)的含量及垂直剖面土壤的铅锶同位素组成,并采用BCR四步提取法对重金属形态进行了分析.重金属总量及形态分析结果表明,泉州市林地土壤重金属污染较轻,主要污染因子为Sr.Pb的非残渣态含量最高,活性最大.内梅罗综合污染指数的评价结果表明,Sr在0~60 cm深度处达到重度污染.次生相与原生相比值法评价结果表明,Pb活性最强,对土壤的潜在危害最大;富集因子计算结果表明,Pb、Sr、Mn、Zn受到外源的影响;因子分析结果表明,重金属主要受到交通源、自然源和农业生产的影响.根据垂直剖面土壤样品与泉州市潜在污染源在~(206)Pb/~(207)Pb-~(207)Pb/~(204)Pb图中的分布特征,Pb主要来源于汽车尾气尘和土壤母质层,利用铅同位素二元混合模型计算出土壤母质层对垂直剖面土壤中铅的贡献率为85.14%(62.53%~98.36%),汽车尾气尘的贡献率平均值为14.86%(1.640%~37.47%).锶同位素示踪结果表明,锶主要来源于汽车尾气尘和土壤母质.铅锶同位素联合示踪结果与前述研究一致.     

基于贝叶斯的苯并(α)芘PBPK模型优化与健康风险评估应用

应用基于生理的药代动力学(PBPK)模型预测苯并(α)芘(BaP)暴露的人体内部剂量,基于贝叶斯的马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟(MCMC)方法对模型参数进行校准和优化,最后运用已优化的模型对BaP内暴露基准值进行推导.研究发现,基于贝叶斯的MCMC方法对模型后验参数校准后,模型精度明显提高,两个数据集验证结果显示残差平方和分别降低了72%和94%.PBPK模型以BaP和子代谢物3-羟基苯并(α)芘(3-OHBaP)的体内动力学过程为结构基础,模拟BaP体内浓度分布大小为脂肪>肾脏>皮肤>缓慢灌注组织>快速灌注组织>静脉血>肝脏;3-OHBaP体内浓度分布大小为肾脏>快速灌注组织>脂肪>肺>静脉血>缓慢灌注组织>肝脏>皮肤.敏感性分析显示,快速灌注组织-血分配系数对模型输出影响最大,灵敏度系数超过了200%;排泄系数影响最小,只有肾小球过滤率K_BR的灵敏度系数超过了1%.以美国国家环境保护局推荐的参考浓度2.0×10^-6mg/m³为外暴露安全基准值,基于PBPK模型推导了职业暴露的BaP生物监测当量(BE),结果显示BE值为0.405pmol/mol肌酐(尿液3-OHBaP平均浓度),为基于人体内暴露剂量水平进行定量健康风险评估奠定了基础.     

山区和平原连接处SF6试验及扩散规律研究

为更好了解污染物在复杂地形条件下的湍流扩散规律,2010年9月开展了一系列SF6示踪扩散试验,获取了SF6浓度数据,以此实验数据为基础,计算出SF6浓度分布在水平和垂直方向的扩散标准差、地面峰值浓度等参数,并与P-T-C扩散参数进行对比,总结得出了污染物在山区和平原连接处中性、稳定、强稳定等气象条件下湍流扩散规律。     

海洋疏浚Mont Carlo数值计算

利用Mont Carlo方法模拟海洋疏浚过程中悬浮泥沙的扩散.结合洋浦近岸海域疏浚工程,计算了悬沙输运轨迹及浓度分布,计算结果较为合理.该模型在近海工程环境影响评价中具有应用价值.     

基于Monte Carlo法的城市雨水径流污染负荷模拟

为了评价流域雨水径流对受纳水体的污染程度和为城市雨水管理、受纳水体水质控制及规划提供依据,把以物理过程为基础的模拟特征融入到概率模型中,建立了城市雨水径流污染负荷的概率模型,并用Monte Carlo随机抽样法,对长期的径流污染负荷进行了模拟试验,得出流域径流污染负荷的分布特性及其特征值。以某市一小区的TP负荷为例进行了验证,模拟结果与实测结果较为一致。     

VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets based on response surface model: A case study in the Pearl River Delta Region, China

Because of the recent growth in ground-level ozone and increased emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), VOC emission control has become a major concern in China. In response, emission caps to control VOC have been stipulated in recent policies, but few of them were constrained by the co-control target of PM_2.5 and ozone, and discussed the factor that influence the emission cap formulation. Herein, we proposed a framework for quantification of VOC emission caps constrained by targets for PM_2.5 and ozone via a new response surface modeling (RSM) technique, achieving 50% computational cost savings of the quantification. In the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, the VOC emission caps constrained by air quality targets varied greatly with the NO_x emission reduction level. If control measures in the surrounding areas of the PRD region were not considered, there could be two feasible strategies for VOC emission caps to meet air quality targets (160 µg/m³ for the maximum 8-hr-average 90th-percentile (MDA8-90%) ozone and 25 µg/m³ for the annual average of PM_2.5): a moderate VOC emission cap with <20% NOx emission reductions or a notable VOC emission cap with >60% NO_x emission reductions. If the ozone concentration target were reduced to 155 µg/m³, deep NO_x emission reductions is the only feasible ozone control measure in PRD. Optimization of seasonal VOC emission caps based on the Monte Carlo simulation could allow us to gain higher ozone benefits or greater VOC emission reductions. If VOC emissions were further reduced in autumn, MDA8-90% ozone could be lowered by 0.3-1.5 µg/m³, equaling the ozone benefits of 10% VOC emission reduction measures. The method for VOC emission cap quantification and optimization proposed in this study could provide scientific guidance for coordinated control of regional PM_2.5 and O₃ pollution in China.     

中国典型流域有机磷酸酯的污染特征与风险评估

有机磷酸酯（OPEs）作为溴代阻燃剂的替代品,在生产生活中被广泛使用,其环境污染和毒性效应受到广泛关注.梳理中国七大典型流域水体中OPEs的含量水平和分布特征,计算中国成人、青少年和儿童的OPEs日均饮水暴露量,对其健康风险进行评估,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟方法评价了结果的可靠性.检索整理了12种OPEs对水生生物的毒性效应浓度,构建物种敏感度分布（SSD）曲线,对生态风险进行评估.结果表明,低等暴露水平下,七大流域ΣOPEs的第5百分位浓度为52.61 ng·L^-1;中等暴露水平下,七大流域ΣOPEs的中位浓度为499.74 ng·L^-1,磷酸三氯乙酯（TCEP）、磷酸三乙酯（TEP）和磷酸三（1,3-二氯-2-丙基）酯（TDCP）为主要污染物;高等暴露水平下,七大流域ΣOPEs的第95百分位浓度为1904.4 ng·L^-1,是其中等暴露水平的3.8倍,长江流域的ΣOPEs浓度最高.健康风险评估表明,不同人群通过饮用水暴露于OPEs的非致癌风险均在可接受范围内.磷酸三甲酯（TMP）、磷酸三异丁酯（TiBP）和TCEP是致癌风险的主要贡献者.生态风险评估结果表明,TCEP在高等暴露水平下存在中等生态风险;磷酸三正丁酯（TnBP）在中等暴露水平下存在中等生态风险,在高等暴露水平下,有较高生态风险;磷酸三苯酯（TPhP）在低中高3种暴露水平下的风险商均大于1,有较高生态风险,需要重点关注.     

基于Monte Carlo模拟的河流水质评价——以温瑞塘河为例

基于水质评价的综合污染指数（CWQI）法和水质指标实测含量的统计分析,应用Monte Carlo模拟方法,建立了河流水质评价的Monte Carlo-CWQI耦合模型并进行实例研究.通过建立的耦合模型和温瑞塘河流域14个监测断面2004~2010年的水质监测数据,定量分析各监测断面隶属于不同污染等级的概率水平和各水质指标对水体污染的影响程度.结果表明：温瑞塘河水系水质污染十分严重,勤奋、九山、东水厂、十字河、南白象、灰桥、新桥、米筛桥、仙门、光明、郭溪、瞿溪、西岙和梧田监测断面处于重度污染的概率分别为28.50%,0.55%,92.71%,59.73%,78.85%,39.38%,78.87%,83.09%,65.32%,78.08%,0.00%,0.96%,68.09%,86.06%;处于严重污染的概率分别为71.28%,0.01%,4.33%,39.76%,21.07%,60.59%,4.42%,12.41%,11.02%,21.24%,0.00%,0.02%,1.42%,13.12%.各监测断面总氮（TN）,氨氮（NH₃-N）和溶解氧（DO）的Spearman等级相关系数范围分别是0.41~0.76、0.25~0.63和0.14~0.66,是其他指标的2倍以上,表明影响该地区水质达标的主要因子是TN,NH₃-N和DO.本研究拓宽了河流水质评价的研究视角,能够为流域水环境管理提供丰富的决策依据.