美国地震风险评估中灾害模型的探讨

介绍了以美国地震灾害模型为例的地震风险评估在金融保险业和土木工程两大领域的应用,回顾了地震灾害风险评估发展的历史背景,其中,金融保险业的模型更测重于对历史理赔数据的分析,土木工程业的模型则注重于对工程结构的分析。着重探讨了评估模型中地震灾害部分的建立,其中包括致灾因子模块及孕灾环境模块。针对建模中致灾因子、孕灾环境等的关键要素,如地震源及震级、地震衰减方式、场地土壤土质条件、地震复发率等,作了分析及归纳总结,并系统地介绍了所涉及要素的数据信息获取过程及对应的建模方法,进一步探讨了相应的风险量化的步骤和方法。     

混凝土大坝震害评估模型的研究及对黄河上游大坝的分析

利用前人所编的历代(共四代)地震烈度(地震动)区划图,组合叠加后得到一个综合烈度(地震动)。这种叠加是一个集成的专家系统综合认识结果,以此作为坝体可能遭受地震破坏危险的因素。初步研究建立了混凝土大坝震害评估模型,此模型是考虑了坝体的结构类型、建设年代、使用现状、场地条件、抗震设防水平等因素,用逐步线性拟合方法进行回归分析得到的。用此模型对汶川地震破坏的坝体进行了实例分析,分析结果比较符合实际。最后,用这个模型对黄河上游10座重点混凝土大坝做了震害评估分析。     

Determination of concentration factors for Cs-137 and Ra-226 in the mullet species Chelon labrosus (Mugilidae) from the South Adriatic Sea

Concentration factors for Cs-137 and Ra-226 transfer from seawater, and dried sediment or mud with detritus, have been determined for whole, fresh weight, Chelon labrosus individuals and selected organs. Cesium was detected in 5 of 22 fish individuals, and its activity ranged from 1.0 to 1.6 Bq kg⁻¹. Radium was detected in all fish, and ranged from 0.4 to 2.1 Bq kg⁻¹, with an arithmetic mean of 1.0 Bq kg⁻¹. In regards to fish organs, cesium activity concentration was highest in muscles (maximum - 3.7 Bq kg⁻¹), while radium was highest in skeletons (maximum - 25 Bq kg⁻¹). Among cesium concentration factors, those for muscles were the highest (from seawater - an average of 47, from sediment - an average of 3.3, from mud with detritus - an average of 0.8). Radium concentration factors were the highest for skeleton (from seawater - an average of 130, from sediment - an average of 1.8, from mud with detritus - an average of 1.5). Additionally, annual intake of cesium and radium by human adults consuming muscles of this fish species has been estimated to provide, in aggregate, an effective dose of about 4.1 μSv y⁻¹.     

城镇居民生活能耗与碳排放动态特征分析

居民家庭生活能源消费与碳排放越来越不容忽视,开展这方面研究对于促进居民可持续消费、寻找新的节能减排途径都具有十分重要的意义.本文在考察量化1999-2007年中国城镇居民生活直接、间接能源消费及其碳排放连续变化的基础上,探究了这段时期生活能耗与碳排放的动态变化特征,并分析其潜在的影响因素.研究主要结论包括:1999-2007年,中国城镇居民人均生活总能耗和碳排总量都呈现出逐年增加趋势,其中间接能耗与碳排始终大于直接能耗与碳排,但二者的差异正在逐年缩小;对于人均直接能耗与碳排来说,二者总量都呈逐年增加趋势,其中电力和煤炭是最主要的直接能源消费品种,也是最主要的碳排来源;对于人均间接能耗与碳排来说,虽然居民生活消费开支逐年递增,但由于各类消费项的单位产值能源强度在逐年下降,因此总的间接能耗与碳排并没呈现出一定的递增或递减趋势,而是出现波动性变化.其中"食品"、"教育文化娱乐服务"和"居住"3项是居民生活间接能耗与碳排的主要来源;人均住宅建筑面积是居民生活碳排变化的主要影晌因子.研究结论为引导可持续的家庭消费模式和节能减排措施的制定提供管理启示与科学依据.     

基于投入产出法的中国出口产品隐含碳测算

使用投入产出法,利用1999 -2008年中国海关货物出口商品分类数据,研究和测算了中国出口商品中的隐含碳.研究结果显示,中国是隐含碳的出口大国,出口贸易是中国CO2排放量逐年增长的重要原因.1999 - 2008年,我国出口产品中的隐含碳由1999年的3.8亿t上升至2008年的11.9亿t,在此期间,中国CO2年排放量的12％ -24％是因生产满足国际市场消费的产品而产生的.中国出口产品中的隐含碳主要集中在5大类行业,分别为:纺织业及服装鞋帽制造业、化学医药制造业、黑色及有色金属冶炼和压延加工业、通用及专用机械设备、电气机械及器材制造业.这5大类行业的出口产品中的隐含碳在中国出口产品的隐含碳总量中占到80％左右.中国出口产品隐含碳的主要流向是美国、欧盟和日本.在实证研究结果的基础上,本文认为国际社会应从生产者负责制和消费者负责制相结合的角度界定各国的碳排放责任和减排目标;同时建议我国应提高生产技术,降低产品的能源消耗强度,并限制能源密集型产业产品的出口.     

Characterization of peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) under different PM2.5 concentration in wintertime at a North China rural site

As a secondary pollutant of photochemical pollution, peroxyacetyl nitrate(PAN) has attracted a close attention. A four-month campaign was conducted at a rural site in North China Plain(NCP) including the measurement of PAN, O₃, NO_x, PM_2.5, oxygenated volatile organic compounds(OVOCs), photolysis rate constants of NO₂ and O₃ and meteorological parameters to investigate the wintertime characterization of photochemistry from November 2018 to Fe...     

兴仁高砷煤矿区溪流水系环境中砷自然净化的初步研究

为了解矿山环境中砷的自然净化能力及其净化机制,对兴仁典型高砷煤矿区溪流水系环境进行采样分析。结果表明,研究区水体和沉积物中砷含量从上游到下游均呈不断降低的变化趋势,水体显示较强的自净能力。上游水体中砷含量的降低主要是吸附沉淀作用,而溪流的简单稀释作用在下游也显得非常重要。     

Policy implementation of the Republic Act (RA) No. 9003 in the Philippines: A case study of Cebu city

Municipal Solid Waste Management (MSWM) is considered to be one of the most serious environmental issues in the Philippines. The annual waste generation was estimated at 10.6 million tonnes in 2012 and this is expected to double in 2025. The Republic Act (RA) No. 9003, widely known as the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act of 2000, provides the required policy framework, institutional mechanisms and mandate to the Local Government Units (LGUs) to achieve 25% waste reduction target through establishing an integrated solid waste management plan based on the 3Rs (reduce, reuse and recycling). Although the initial impact of the LGUs is still very limited in implementing the national mandate, this article highlights the successful experiences of Cebu, the second largest city in the Philippines, in reducing its MSW generation by more than 30% in the past three years. This study also explores the implementation process, innovative actions taken by the Cebu City Government in implementing the national mandate at local level and identifies the factors that influence the policy implementation. The findings suggest that the impacts of the national mandate can be achieved if the LGUs have the high degree of political commitment, planning and development of effective local strategies in a collaborative manner to meet with local conditions, partnership building with other stakeholders, capacity development, adequate financing and incentives, and in the close monitoring and evaluation of performance.     

Heavy metals contents of roadside mosses in the northern and south-eastern regions of Nigeria

Levels of lead, zinc, cadmium, copper and nickel were determined in roadside moss samples within towns in the northern and south-eastern regions of Nigeria. Average lead level in the south-east (59 ppm) was higher than the average for the northern region (44 ppm). Average levels of zinc, cadmium, copper and nickel did not differ significantly between the two regions, with overall averages for the entire study area being 50.9, 1.2, 11.3 and 5.6 ppm for these metals. Lead levels were poorly correlated with those of the other metals, indicating that automobile emissions may not be the main source for these metals in the moss. In comparison with a previous study of the south-west region, the results indicate a generally slightly higher level of metal pollution in the south-west region than in both the northern and south-eastern regions.