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31.
Dahe Jiang Yang Zhang Xiang Hu Yun Zeng Jianguo Tan Demin Shao 《Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)》2004,38(40):7055
An air pollution index (API) reporting system is introduced to selected cities of China for public communication on air quality data. Shanghai is the first city in China providing daily average API reports and forecasts. This paper describes the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) model for the API forecasting in Shanghai. It is a multiple layer perceptron (MLP) network, with meteorological forecasting data as the main input, to output the next day average API values. However, the initial version of the MLP model did not work well. To improve the model, a series of tests were conducted with respect to the training method and structure optimization. Based on the test results, the training algorithm was modified and a new model was built. The new model is now being used in Shanghai for API forecasting. Its performance is shown reasonably well in comparison with observation. The application of the old model was only weakly correlated with observation. In 1-year application, the correlation coefficients were 0.2314, 0.1022 and 0.1710 for TSP, SO2 and NOx, respectively. But for the new model, for over 8 months application, the correlation coefficients are raised to 0.6056, 0.6993 and 0.6300 for PM10, SO2, and NO2. Further, the new algorithm does not rely on manpower intervention so that it is now being applied in several other Chinese cities with quite different meteorological conditions. The structure of the model and the application results are presented in this paper and also the problems to be further studied. 相似文献
32.
Akiko Matsumoto-Oda 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》1999,46(4):258-266
For female chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) in the Mahale Mountains National Park, Tanzania, the most common mating pattern is opportunistic. In such opportunistic
matings, females copulated promiscuously but not randomly. This study describes female mate choice during 1-year observation
of six females who exhibited regular genital-swelling cycles. During the study period, 169 opportunistic matings and four
restrictive matings were recorded over the course of 51 days. As female estrus progressed, mating frequency and the number
of adult male mating partners increased, although the number of potential mating partners did not change. Criteria of female
choice examined were the direction and consent/rejection of courtship, proximity maintenance, and female grooming. Adult-male
courtships were successful more often than those of adolescent males. During the earlier phase of estrus, females copulated
rather promiscuously with many males. But during the later phase of estrus when the likelihood of conception is expected to
be highest, they copulated repeatedly with high-ranking adult males. There was a positive correlation between female grooming
frequency and mating frequency when the likelihood of conception was greatest. Female chimpanzees are thought to choose high-ranking
males as fathers of their offspring. Moreover, female chimpanzees may adopt one or both of two mating strategies, i.e., a
many-male strategy and a best-male strategy.
Received: 23 November 1998 / Received in revised form: 12 April 1999 / Accepted: 26 April 1999 相似文献
33.
Dorte Bekkevold Jane Frydenberg Jacobus J. Boomsma 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》1999,46(2):103-109
Queen mating frequency of the facultatively polygynous ant Acromyrmex echinatior was investigated by analysing genetic variation at an (AG)n repeat microsatellite locus in workers and sexuals of 20 colonies from a single Panamanian population. Thirteen colonies
were found to be monogynous, 5 colonies contained multiple queens, whereas the queen number of 2 colonies remained unresolved.
Microsatellite genotypes indicated that 12 out of 13 queens were inseminated by multiple males (polyandry). The mean queen
mating frequency was 2.53 and the mean genetically effective paternity frequency was 2.23. These values range among the highest
found in ants, and the results are in keeping with the high mating frequencies reported for other species of leafcutter ants.
Consistent skew in the proportional representation of different patrilines within colonies was found, and this remained constant
in two consecutive samples of offspring. Dissections showed that all examined queens from multiple-queen colonies were mated
egg-layers. The mean relatedness value among nestmate workers in polygynous colonies was lower than that for monogynous colonies.
No diploid males were detected in a sample of 70 genotyped males. Worker production of males was detected in one queenless
colony. We discuss our findings in relation to known patterns of multiple maternity and paternity in other eusocial Hymenoptera.
Received: 2 September 1998 / Received in revised form: 3 February 1999 / Accepted: 7 February 1999 相似文献
34.
在酸性溶液中,氟能破坏二甲酚橙〖CD*2〗锆显色体系,使溶液颜色从紫红色变为橙色或黄色,通过采集图像颜色信息构建3个特征颜色分量的多元线性回归模型,用以定量测定水中氟。该方法在0 mg/L~1.5 mg/L范围内线性良好,方法检出限为0.03 mg/L。两个质量浓度水平的氟化物标准溶液6次测定结果的RSD分别为1.4%和1.3%,相对误差分别为0.3%和1.7%。 相似文献
35.
Common cause failure describes a condition where several components share the same source of failure that causes them to fail or become unavailable simultaneously. The objective of this paper is to present an improved approach to common cause failure modelling within reliability analyses. The currently used methods allow one component to share common characteristics with only one group of components, which may be affected by the same source of failure. Therefore, an improved method was developed, where components can be assigned to several groups of components that are susceptible to faulty operation with respect to their similar characteristics. A mathematical derivation of the method is presented and the theory is applied to smaller theoretical samples and to a simplified real example. The results show that the new method enables a more detailed reliability analysis. The results prove that consideration of common cause failures using the improved method may decrease the system reliability compared to traditional common cause failure consideration. The system reliability decreases more, if the redundant components have more similarities and are therefore assigned to several common cause failure groups. 相似文献
36.
An understanding of the causal mechanisms and processes that shape macroinvertebrate communities at a local scale has important implications for the management and conservation of freshwater biodiversity. Here we compare the performance of linear and non-linear statistics to explore diversity-environment relationships using data from 76 temporary and fluctuating ponds in two regions of southern England. We focus on aquatic beetle assemblages, which have been shown to be excellent surrogates of wider freshwater macroinvertebrate diversity. Ponds in the region contained a rich coleopteran fauna, totaling 68 species, which provided an excellent model system with which to compare the performance of two non-linear procedures (artificial neural networks—ANNs and generalised additive models—GAMs) and one more traditional linear approach (Multiple linear regression—MLR) to modelling diversity-environment relationships. Of all approaches employed, the best fit was obtained using an ANN model with only four input variables (conductivity, turbidity, magnesium concentration and depth). This model accounted for 82% of the observed variability in Shannon diversity index across ponds. In contrast, the best GAM and MLR models only explained 50% and 14% of this variation, respectively. Contribution profile analysis of conductivity, turbidity, magnesium concentration and depth, obtained from the best fit ANN through a hierarchical cluster analysis, allowed the identification of direct and proxy effects in relation to the environmental variables measured in this study. In each case, distinct clusters of ponds were identified in contribution profile analysis, suggesting that ponds across the two regions fall into a number of discrete groups, whose beetle faunas respond in subtly yet significantly different ways to key environmental variables. Aquatic coleopteran diversity in ponds in the two regions appears to be driven at a local scale by changes in relatively few physicochemical gradients, which are related to diversity in a clearly non-linear manner. 相似文献
37.
Jongseong Ryu Thomas M. Leschine Jungho Nam Won Keun Chang Karen Dyson 《Journal of environmental management》2011
This report proposes a method for assessing resilience-building components in coastal social–ecological systems. Using the proposed model, the preferences of experts in Masan Bay (South Korea) and Puget Sound (USA) are compared. A total of 30 management objectives were determined and used to build a hierarchic tree designed using the principles of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Surveys were performed with 35 Puget Sound experts using face-to-face interviews and with 28 Masan Bay experts by mail. The results demonstrate that the legal objective, which enables legislation, was the highest preferred component in both regions. The knowledge translation variable was also given a high preference score in both regions. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that the Puget Sound experts significantly favored attention to education, habitat restoration and species protection objectives in comparison to the Masan Bay experts. The Masan Bay experts placed greater emphasis on legislation and the type of institutional design than did the Puget Sound experts. Using cluster analysis, four distinct groups of respondents were independently identified in Puget Sound and three groups were identified in Masan Bay. One unique subgroup in the Puget Sound experts group, which was characterized by its high preferences for habitat restoration and species protection, was not observed in Masan Bay. Demographic variables (length of career and role in coastal issue) failed to account for the differences in groupings and preferences in either region, except for the variable ‘favoring information source’ in the Puget Sound group. This finding implies that the demographic information was not related to differences in group opinions in both regions. The analysis framework presented here was effective in identifying expert preferences regarding the overall structure and emphasis in coastal management programs. Thus, this framework can be applied towards coastal policy development. 相似文献
38.
Male willow warblers have song repertoires which vary in complexity along several dimensions. We examined whether female choice,
as measured by date of pairing, was based on these song characteristics in 4 different years. Pairing date was negatively
correlated with song repertoire size in 1 year, and with song versatility in another year, but there was no consistent effect
of any song characteristic on pairing throughout the years or in the pooled sample. The variable that best explained how soon
a male pairs is male arrival date (only males that had settled territories before the first female arrived were considered
in the analysis). This correlation is consistently significant in all years. This is most parsimoniously interpreted as females
choosing some habitat characteristic in the same way that males do. A small percentage of males (8.3%) attracted and paired
with a second female. The likelihood of becoming polygynous was not explained by any measured song characteristic, but it
was related to arrival date: early males were more likely to pair with two females. Males with large repertoires fledged more
young in their primary nests, and there was a trend for the offspring of these males to have a greater probability of being
recruited into the population. In conclusion, the results show that in most years there is no sexual selection by female preference
on song characteristics, although the data on reproductive success is consistent with the idea of repertoire size being an
indicator of male quality.
Received: 4 June 1999 / Received in revised form: 1 December 1999 / Accepted: 31 December 1999 相似文献
39.
Spatial distribution of nutrient and phytoplankton variables is often illustrated using categorical mapping for each variable.
However, the assessment of eutrophication cannot be derived from a single parameter since a synthesis of the environmental
variables related to eutrophication is required. These shortcomings are further complicated since it is difficult to discriminate
between distinct trophic states along natural environmental gradients. In the present work, a methodological procedure for
quantitative assessment of eutrophication at a spatial scale was examined in the Gulf of Saronicos, Greece, based on a thematic
map generated from the synthesis of four variables characterising eutrophication. The categorical map of each variable was
developed using the Kriging interpolation method and four trophic levels were indicated (eutrophic, upper-mesotrophic, lower-mesotrophic
and oligotrophic) based on nutrient and phytoplankton concentration scaling. Multi-criteria choice methods were applied to
generate a final categorical map showing the four trophic levels in the area. This synthesis of categorical maps for assessing
eutrophication at a spatial scale is proposed as a methodological procedure appropriate for coastal management studies. 相似文献
40.
以阳澄湖水源为研究对象,采用固相微萃取-气质联用法测定水中2-甲基异莰醇(2-MIB)、土臭素(GSM)、2,4,6-三氯苯甲醚(2,4,6-TAC)、2,3,4-三氯苯甲醚(2,3,4-TAC)、2,3,6-三氯苯甲醚(2,3,6-TAC)、2-异丙基-3甲氧基吡嗪(IPMP)、2-异丁基-3甲氧基吡嗪(IBMP)、... 相似文献