Multiple regression models for the lower heating value of municipal solid waste in Taiwan

A multiple regression analysis was used to develop two predictive models of lower heating value (LHV) for municipal solid waste (MSW), using 180 samples gathered from cities and counties in Taiwan during 2001-2002. These models are referred to as the original proposed model (OPM) and the simplified model (SM). The coefficients of multiple determinations for the OPM and SM were 0.983 and 0.975, respectively. To verify the feasibility of the models, a demonstration program based on sampling of MSW in Kaohsiung City was conducted. As a result, the OPM showed superior precision in terms of relative percentage deviation (RPD) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), when compared to the conventional models based on the proximate analysis, physical composition and ultimate analysis. The SM was derived by neglecting the three minor physical components used in the OPM. The resulting SM was less precise when compared to the OPM, but it was still acceptable, with a precision level better than the conventional models. It was concluded that the predictability of empirical models could be improved significantly through selection of the appropriate physical components and multiple regression analysis.     

Use of bifurcation analysis for identification of a safe CSTR operability

Exothermic reactions are the most interesting systems for safety analysis because of their potential safety problems and the possibility of exotic behavior like multiple steady states. An operability and safety analysis of an exothermic reaction (hydrolysis of propylene oxide to tri-propylene glycol with consecutive reactions in a CSTR) with cooling is reported in this work. The information obtained from the bifurcation diagram is used to identify a set of unsafe operation points, which have been chosen on the base of requirement of maximal production of the process. An important information of safe reactor operation is the time in which the operator must handle a critical situation. For this reason, dynamics simulation of a failure in the cooling medium flow rate has been done and discussed for each of the selected operation points.     

机车司机行车安全监控系统应用研究

分析铁路行车安全监控系统的复杂性和现状;设计分局机车司机行车安全监控系统和数据流向;研制车载的机车司机工作状态实时监督系统;采用视频监控、图像处理技术以及人脸识别技术对机车司机工作状态进行识别并实时报警。经过实验证明:对司机长时间离开座位、睡眠和呆木状态有较高的识别率;同时对司机工作状态的图像信号进行压缩储存;管理人员可以回放检查。采用CDMA技术设计了地面对机车司机工作状态的视频监控子系统,可以把司机的工作状态图像及时传送到车站或调度中心。实际线路实验表明,该系统可以大大提高司机工作的安全性。     

Investigation of PCDD/Fs and dl-PCBs in fish from the southern Baltic Sea during the 2002–2006 period

Concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (dl-PCBs) in the southern Baltic herring (Clupea harengus), sprat (Sprattus sprattus), and salmon (Salmo salar) are reported.The significant interspecies and season-specific differences in PCDD/Fs and dl-PCBs concentrations were observed. The contribution of dl-PCBs to the total toxicity equivalents (TEQs) ranged between 50% and 70%, dependently on fish species. In all samples, concentrations of PCDF were higher in comparison with that of PCDD.The permissible limits of the content of PCDD/Fs and dl-PCBs (8 pg g⁻¹ fresh weight for the sum of PCDD/Fs and dl-PCBs, and 4 pg g⁻¹ fresh weight for the PCDD/Fs) were exceeded mainly in salmon samples (in 80% of salmon samples studied). The elevated levels of PCDD/F and dl-PCB were observed only in two of seventy two herring samples, and in ten of 62 sprat samples.The multiple regression analysis revealed that fish lipid content, and concentration of PCB 153, used simultaneously, might be useful in the prediction of TEQ values of fish samples. These two variables explained more than 80% of total variance. For all fish species studied, the correlation coefficients obtained with the multiple regression analysis were higher than that obtained with the regression analysis involving total TEQ values, and only one independent variable: fish lipid content.     

丹江口库区可持续发展能力分析

从区域可持续发展的角度出发,以湖北省丹江口库区为例,首先定性分析库区可持续发展的优势与问题,认为库区移民安置工作困难,库区可持续发展受到限制;经济增长缓慢,基础设施建设滞后;城镇化水平较低,库区社会矛盾突出;自然资源丰富与开发不足并存,库区淹没加剧土地资源稀缺;环境质量较好,生态基础脆弱。然后采用多因素综合评价模型定量分析了1999～2005年库区可持续发展的变化趋势。结果表明：库区可持续发展能力从1999年到2003年呈现明显的上升趋势,却从2004年开始缓慢下降;而人口、经济、社会、资源和环境各子系统也呈现出不同的特征。最后针对定性和定量评价结果提出相应的对策建议：做好库区移民安置,实现移民稳定就业;减少和消除移民贫困,增加基础设施建设;加快小城镇建设步伐,解决库区社会矛盾;发挥水资源优势,改善库区生态环境。     

An analytic network process approach for locating undesirable facilities: an example from Istanbul, Turkey

Locating an undesirable facility is a sophisticated problem, for the evaluation procedures involve several objectives and the solution to the problem calls for some compromises to be made between probable conflicting criteria. This paper addresses the problem of undesirable facility location selection using the analytic network process (ANP), a multi-criteria decision-making technique. The ANP technique enables us to consider both qualitative and quantitative criteria as well as the interdependencies and feedbacks. A number of criteria (benefits, opportunities, costs and risks) and their sub-criteria are considered for siting a new facility with which this study has dealt. The questions of what criteria would be considered and what the interdependencies between these criteria and their weights would be were discussed and determined via interviews with some competent authorities of the Istanbul Municipality and of two environmental organizations. Four representative locations were evaluated and the most convenient one was selected. This was followed by the sensitivity analyses of the results.     

Developing and Implementing Multiple-Use Forest Management Planning in Turkey

This paper explains briefly the conceptual framework of an ecosystem-based multiple-use forest management planning focusing on biodiversity conservation and participation. Some results from a case study were documented to realize the implementation of the concept. A strong liaison between the related institutions and major stakeholders and the effective use of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) are necessary. Effective participation is evident only with the involvement of enthusiastic and skillful stakeholders. A case study of ??neada, Turkey, supported the idea that participation as communication has better possibilities to promote multiple-use forest management than participation as information gathering. Primary challenges relate to the effectiveness of conservation program, availability of coherent biodiversity data, capacity building; awareness, training, and common understanding of biodiversity and protected area concept; coordination among the related institutions and stakeholders; and willingness and enthusiasm of authorities to accept and implement the concept.     

Feeding of western gray whales during a seismic survey near Sakhalin Island, Russia

Exxon Neftegas Limited, as operator of the Sakhalin-1 consortium, is developing oil and gas reserves on the continental shelf off northeast Sakhalin Island, Russia. DalMorNefteGeofizika (DMNG) on behalf of the Sakhalin-1 consortium conducted a 3-D seismic survey of the Odoptu license area during 17 August–9 September 2001. A portion of the primary feeding area of the endangered western gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) is located in the vicinity of the seismic survey. This paper presents data to assess whether western gray whale bottom feeding activity, as indicated by visible mud plumes, was affected by seismic operations. The mitigation and monitoring program associated with the seismic survey included aerial surveys during 19 July–19 November 2001. These aerial surveys documented the local and regional distribution, abundance, and bottom feeding activity of western gray whales. Data on gray whale feeding activity before, during and after the seismic survey were collected, with the whales assumed to be feeding on the benthos if mud plumes were observed on the surface. The data were used to assess the influence of seismic survey and other factors (including environmental) on feeding activity of western gray whales. A stepwise multiple regression analysis failed to find a statistically significant effect (α = 0.05) of the seismic survey on frequency of occurrence of mud plumes of western gray whales used as a proxy to evaluate bottom feeding activity in Piltun feeding area. The regression indicated that transect number (a proxy for water depth, related to distance from shore) and swell height (a proxy for sea state) were the only variables that had a significant effect on frequency of whale mud plumes. It is concluded that the 2001 seismic survey had no measurable effect (α = 0.05) on bottom feeding activity of western gray whales off Sakhalin Island. M.W. Newcomer, deceased     

Distribution and abundance of western gray whales during a seismic survey near Sakhalin Island, Russia

Exxon Neftegas Limited, operator of the Sakhalin-1 consortium, is developing oil and gas reserves on the continental shelf off northeast Sakhalin Island, Russia. DalMorNefteGeofizika (DMNG), on behalf of the Sakhalin-1 consortium, conducted a 3-D seismic survey of the Odoptu license area during 17 August–9 September 2001. A portion of the primary known feeding area of the endangered western gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) is located adjacent to the seismic block. The data presented here were collected as part of daily monitoring to determine if there was any measurable effect of the seismic survey on the distribution and abundance of western gray whales. Mitigation and monitoring program included aerial surveys conducted between 19 July and 19 November using the methodology outlined by the Southern California High Energy Seismic Survey team (HESS). These surveys provided documentation of the distribution, abundance and bottom feeding activity of western gray whales in relation to seismic survey sounds. From an operations perspective, the aerial surveys provided near real-time data on the location of whales in and outside the feeding area, and documented whether whales were displaced out of an area normally used as feeding habitat. The objectives of this study were to assess (a) temporal changes in the distribution and abundance of gray whales in relation to seismic survey, and (b) the influence of seismic survey, environmental factors, and other variables on the distribution and abundance of gray whales within their preferred feeding area adjacent to Piltun Bay. Multiple regression analysis revealed a limited redistribution of gray whales southward within the Piltun feeding area when the seismic survey was fully operational. A total of five environmental and other variables unrelated to seismic survey (date and proxies of depth, sea state and visibility) and one seismic survey-related variable (seg3d, i.e., received sound energy accumulated over 3 days) had statistically significant effects on the distribution and abundance of gray whales. The distribution of two to four gray whales observed on the surface (i.e., about five to ten whales in total) has likely been affected by the seismic survey. However, the total number of gray whales observed within the Piltun feeding area remained stable during the seismic survey. M. W. Newcomer, Deceased.     

固体废弃物资源化利用评价体系及研究方法

从经济、社会政策和环境影响三个角度,运用层次分析法、模糊决策理论和多目标分析3种评价方法以及矩阵、德尔斐法和混合优序图等数学工具,分别对上海市固体废弃物资源化利用所采用的不同方案进行全面综合评价,不同评价方法的研究结果具有一致性,均表明环境影响是相对最重要的影响因素,固体废弃物双向分离系统的建立是最优化的固体废弃物资源化利用方案,也是今后上海固体废弃物资源化利用研究的重点以及努力发展的方向.