A COMPARISON OF DELTA CHANGE AND DOWNSCALED GCM SCENARIOS FOR THREE MOUNTAINOUS BASINS IN THE UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Simulated daily precipitation, temperature, and runoff time series were compared in three mountainous basins in the United States: (1) the Animas River basin in Colorado, (2) the East Fork of the Carson River basin in Nevada and California, and (3) the Cle Elum River basin in Washington State. Two methods of climate scenario generation were compared: delta change and statistical downscaling. The delta change method uses differences between simulated current and future climate conditions from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM2) General Circulation Model (GCM) added to observed time series of climate variables. A statistical downscaling (SDS) model was developed for each basin using station data and output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEPINCAR) reanalysis regridded to the scale of HadCM2. The SDS model was then used to simulate local climate variables using HadCM2 output for current and future conditions. Surface climate variables from each scenario were used in a precipitation‐runoff model. Results from this study show that, in the basins tested, a precipitation‐runoff model can simulate realistic runoff series for current conditions using statistically down‐scaled NCEP output. But, use of downscaled HadCM2 output for current or future climate assessments are questionable because the GCM does not produce accurate estimates of the surface variables needed for runoff in these regions. Given the uncertainties in the GCMs ability to simulate current conditions based on either the delta change or downscaling approaches, future climate assessments based on either of these approaches must be treated with caution.     

Evaluation of ecological network analysis: Validation of output

Ecological network analysis (ENA) is a modeling approach increasingly being used to evaluate food webs and provide an ecosystem-based approach to resource management. Unfortunately, validation of ENA output is rarely performed. This study represents part of a larger effort to critically evaluate ENA. Here we validate ENA output using stable isotope analysis (SIA), and where validation is not met, determine the effects of modifying trophic networks to reflect validation.     

Estimates of species- and ecosystem-level respiration of woody stems along an elevational gradient in the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico

We measured CO₂ efflux from stems of seven subtropical tree species situated along an elevational gradient in the Luquillo Mountains, Puerto Rico and scaled these measurements up to the landscape level based on modeled and empirical relations. The most important determinants of ecosystem stem respiration were species composition and stem temperature. At a species scale, measured CO₂ efflux per unit bole surface area at a given temperature was highest in the early successional species Cecropia schreberiana and lowest in species that inhabit high elevations such as Micropholis garciniifolia and Tabebuia rigida. Carbon dioxide efflux rates followed a diel pattern that lagged approximately 6 h behind changes in sapwood temperatures. At an ecosystem scale, our simulation model indicates a decreasing trend of stem respiration rates with increasing elevation due to shifts in species composition, lower temperatures and reductions in branch surface area. The highest estimated stem respiration rates were present in the lowland tabonuco forest type and the lowest rates were present in the elfin forest type (mean 7.4 and 2.1 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹, respectively). There was slight temperature-induced seasonal variation in simulated stem respiration rates at low elevations, with a maximum difference of 19% between the months of February and July. Our results coincide well with those of Odum and Jordan [Odum, H.T., Jordan, C.F., 1970. Metabolism and evapotranspiration of the lower forest in a giant plastic cylinder. In: Odum, H.T., Pigeon, R.F. (Eds.), A Tropical Rain Forest: A Study of Irradiation and Ecology at El Verde, Puerto Rico. U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, Oak Ridge, TN, pp. I165–I189] for the tabonuco forest type and extend their work by presenting estimates and spatial patterns of woody tissue respiration for the entire mountain rather than for a single forested plot.     

多环芳烃室内土柱淋溶行为的CDE模型模拟

采用土柱淋溶实验方法对多环芳烃(PAHs)在人工污染士柱中表面活性剂淋溶下的运移进行了实验室研究,获得了示踪剂Br^-和PAHs的穿透曲线(BTCs);并通过室内批量平衡试验(PAHs和表面活性剂吸附试验和表面活性剂对PAHs吸附／解吸影响试验)获得了吸附系数,进而获得阻滞因子．基于这些实验室结果,通过CXTFIT2．1软件,用平衡CDE模型拟合了Br^-的BTCs,获得物理和水动力参数;并在此基础上应用CDE非平衡模型拟合PAHs在表面活性剂淋溶条件下土柱中的BTCs以及不同时刻、不同埋深处PAHs浓度的动态变化,预测了PAHs在土柱中的迁移趋势。     

环境法治多中心模式及其结构设计

首先指出我国目前的环境法治行政单中心模式的弊端,进而分析了多中心理论在我国的适用性,并在对其进行修正的基础上,进行了环境法治多中心模式的框架设计。     

城市突发环境事件的三维矩阵管理模式研究

针对我国环境事件频繁发生和应急管理法制建设缺位、体制不健全之间的矛盾,结合矩阵管理与应急管理理念,创建了基于事件分级、事件生命周期和事件运行管理为三维的矩阵管理模式,并以此模式分析结果为基础,提出城市应急管理能力建设的阶段性建议。     

水环境中重金属的生物毒性预测模型

简要介绍了近年来发展的几种金属生物毒性预测模型，如FIAM、GSIM和BLM等模型。金属与生物有效性和毒性之间的关系，是制定金属的水质标准的依据，随着对金属形态及其生物有效性和毒性关系研究的深入，产生了很多的机理描述模型。描述金属与生物作用的现存模型有多种，分别从多种角度解释了环境因素对金属形态分布及其生物毒性的影响，各模型在一定程度上可给出重金属的生物毒性信息，但都存在缺陷，不能完全替代毒性实验。建立合理的金属毒性预测模型，为建新的水质标准提供依据，正是国际环境界研究的热点。     

亚运时段广州大气污染物来源数值模拟研究

利用嵌套网格空气质量预报模式系统(Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System,NAQPMS)研究2006年亚运时段广州的空气质量状况,同时结合污染源追踪方法,分析珠三角各城市的源排放对广州全市、广州二环以内市区、广州6个亚运加强观测站的污染物浓度贡献.结果表明,NAQPMS模式能较好地反映广州各污染物(NO2、SO2、PM10)浓度的变化;广州全市、广州市区、6个亚运加强观测站的污染物最主要来源于本地排放,而周边城市以东莞的贡献最大.3个源受体中,广州市区受本地排放的影响最显著,来自本地的NO2、SO2、PM10的月均贡献率分别为89.5%、75.4%、86.7%;东莞则对6个亚运加强观测站的影响最为突出,其NO2、SO2、PM10的月均贡献率达9.3%、23.8%、21.7%,而日最大贡献率高达19.3%、40.2%、48.7%.因此在大力削减广州本地污染排放的同时,对周边城市特别是东莞实施区域联防联控,将能有效改善亚运场馆附近的空气质量.     

催化湿式氧化处理H—酸溶液的反应动力学

两阶段一级反应动力学模型和广义动力学模型被用来描述湿式氧化（ＷＡＯ）及催化湿式氧化（ＣＷＡＯ）反应过程，并确定了动力学参数。２个模型的计算值均与实验值相符，而广义动力学模型相对现准确些。２个确定均表明反尖分２个步骤：首先是Ｈ－酸被迅速氧化成小分子有机酸，后者再缓慢氧化，这２个步骤由模型参数加以表征，因而模型可被用来对ＣＷＡＯ催化剂进行评价。     

考虑环境约束的中国资源型城市全要素能源效率及其差异研究

论文采用考虑非期望产出的SBM模型测算了考虑环境约束的中国资源型城市全要素能源效率,并对全要素能源效率差异进行分解研究.研究发现:第一,多数资源型城市处于非效率状态,不同类别城市间效率差异明显,并且这种差异并未随时间明显改善;第二,按区域分组,区域内差异是造成全要素能源效率总体差异的主因,其中,中部区域组内差异是造成总体差异的最重要因素;第三,按规划综合分类分组,各群组内部差异是造成总体差异的主因,其中,成熟型组内差异是造成总体差异的最重要因素;第四,按资源类型分组,各群组内部差异是造成总体差异的主因,其中,煤炭类组内差异与综合类组内差异是造成总体差异最为重要的前两位因素.在研究结果的基础上,论文探讨了相关的含义.