京津冀PM_(2.5)的主要影响因素及内在关系研究

大气污染物的源排放是形成灰霾天气的内因,气象条件是形成灰霾天气的外因。本研究通过构建PM_(2.5)浓度的两段式分布滞后模型,结合自然环境因素及经济因素对PM_(2.5)的影响因素进行了综合分析。在第一段模型中构建了PM_(2.5)和大气污染物排放量的分布滞后模型,第二段模型中构建了不同的大气污染源对大气污染物排放量的影响因素模型。大气污染物排放源主要包括工业源、生活源、机动车源、集中式污染治理设施源。在工业源中,工业废气重度污染行业是大气污染物排放主要的贡献者;在生活源中,燃煤消费量对大气污染物排放影响很大,这也是冬季供暖期间PM_(2.5)剧增的原因;在机动车源中,尽管黄标车的保有量仅占汽车保有量的10%左右,但却占据了颗粒物排放量的绝大部分。利用京津冀代表性城市PM_(2.5)日度数据研究得出平均气温、平均风速、日照时数、平均气压、降雨量、平均相对湿度、沙尘暴等因素对PM_(2.5)浓度的负向与正向作用。研究发现,大气污染物排放量对PM_(2.5)浓度具有聚集的滞后效应,当期大气污染物排放量、滞后一期、滞后两期、滞后三期大气污染物对PM_(2.5)浓度具有显著的正向作用,且影响依次递减。构建的大气污染物排放量的污染源影响因素模型揭示一个地区煤炭消费量、工业废气重度污染行业工业增加值、黄标车保有量对该地区大气污染物排放量具有显著影响。本研究对优化能源消费结构和产业结构,减少空气污染物排放提出了对策建议。     

石灰石脱硫反应动力学研究

用热重分析法（TGA）研究了石灰石脱硫反应特性,得出了影响氧化钙转化率的各种因素,包括反应温度、石灰石粒径、SO₂浓度和反应时间等。对反应机理进行分析并建立了反应动力学模型。     

关于厌氧流化床稳态机理模型和参数估计模型的推理性研究

本研究采用化繁为简的模型图式、质量平衡原理和实验中的经验数据进行了厌氧流化床消化有机废液过程稳态机理模型的推理,继而对机理模型作了线性化处理,得到厌氧流化床运行的稳态参数估计模型。这些模型可用于厌氧流化床运行的在线控制,具有理论和实用价值。     

FHWA模式在港口建设项目环评中的应用

运用美国ＦＨＷＡ公路噪声预测模式对秦皇岛新港口建设引起的相关公路两侧垢学环境变化进行了预测。通过预测与实测结果对比,证明了ＦＨＷＡ模式不仅适用于公路建设项目环境影响评价,而且适合于港口建设项目环境影响评价。     

火灾规律双重性模型及其对室内漏油火灾的分析

火灾的规律具有双重性:确定性和随机性。只有既研究其确定性又研究其随机性,并进而研究二者的综合才能完整地认识火灾的规律。本文提出火灾双重性规律的学术思想,通过构造室内漏油火灾的确定性和随机性模型,阐明运用火灾双重性规律表述火灾过程的具体方法。文中用微机实施的大量计算表明,该模型能方便地预言:发生室内漏油火灾时,室内设备是否会损坏以及可能被损坏的概率.     

The early warning of aquatic organophosphorus pesticide contamination by on-line monitoring behavioral changes of Daphnia magna

In this paper, the movement behavior of Daphnia magna was studied as a bio-indicator of organophosphorous pesticide (OP) contamination, using an on-line bio-monitoring method, the Multispecies Freshwater Biomonitor. A static test of acute toxicity test revealed the 24-h and 48-h LC(50) values (95% confidence limit) for Daphnia magna to be respectively 0.45 microg/l and 0.21 microg/l for dipterex 3.80 microg/l and 0.90 microg/l for malathion, and 1.25 microg/l and 0.38 microg/l for parathion. The behavior strength of Daphnia magna was a sensitive indicator of sublethal OP stress and resulted in significant concentration-response relationships for the three OPs. Increasing OP concentration will result in more intensive behavioral responses of Daphnia magna and shorter response time, which could be described by the Stepwise Stress Model (SSM). Therefore movement behavior can be effectively applied in early warning of environment quality by on-line bio-monitoring. The intensive changes in behavior strength of Daphnia magna over a short time follow the SSM concept and can be used as an indicator of early stress response to OP accidental contamination.     

Modified grey model for estimating traffic tunnel air quality

This study compared three forecasting models based on the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) of their accuracy in forecasting air pollution in a traffic tunnel: the Grey model (GM), the combination model used four sample point and five sample point prediction with GM (1,1)(GM(1,1)^4 + 5), and the modified grey model (MGM). An MGM was combined using the four points of the original sequence using the original grey prediction GM (1,1) for short-term forecasting. The proposed method cannot only enhance the prediction accuracy of the original grey model, but can also solve the jump data forecasting problem something for which the original grey model is inappropriate. The MAPE was applied to the models, and the MGM found the proposed method to be simple and efficient. The MAPE of MGM, calculated over 3 h of forecasts, were as follows: 10.12 (Upwind), 10.07 (Middle) and 7.68 (Downwind) for CO; 10.79 (Upwind), 6.05 (Middle) and 5.98 (Downwind) for NO _x , and 11.67 (Upwind), 7.32 (Middle) and 4.56 (Downwind) for NMHC. The MGM model results reveal that the combined forecasts can significantly decrease the overall forecasting error. Results of this demonstrate that MGM can accurately forecast air pollution in the Kaohsiung Chung–Cheng Tunnel.     

Excel在排放口最优规划中的应用

鉴于电子表格软件Excel提供的“规划求解”(Solver)加载宏可以求解线性、非线性以及混合整数规划等单目标优化的问题的特点,文章开发了排放口最优规划问题求解的应用程序(DPOPMS)。程序包括了多河段BOD-DO耦合矩阵模型的计算、电子表格模型的自动创建、调用“规划求解”加载宏进行规划求解以及规划求解结果的输出等主要功能模块,并将程序应用于汾河太原城区段的污染控制规划,所得的规划结果与实际情况较为吻合。运用该程序进行排放口最优规划,避免了复杂的模型求解过程的算法程序编制,实现较为方便。     

Investigation of some nonlinear singular model ecosystems and new concerned mathematical problems

The work is devoted to the investigation of nonlinear singular ecological models with initial functional conditions and determination of solutions of problems, which are connected with these models. It is also considered some of its applications in field of ecological modelling under formulation and investigation of the so-called keeping and protection problems. We shall investigate nonlinear models that are described with the help of partial differential equation of first and second orders. Solutions of linear and some singular nonlinear problems with functional initial conditions are obtained in the form depending from initial parameters.