基于指数趋势模型在城市垃圾产量预测中的应用

采用了一种较新的预测算法———指数趋势模型算法对城市垃圾产量进行了预测,从结果看较为合理,对填埋场容量规划起到一定的参考作用,同时丰富了预测计算方法的研究思路。     

新陈代谢模型滑动指标检验及其在道路交通噪声预测中的应用

定义了灰色新陈代谢模型的滑动指标,实现了对新陈代谢模型各项精度指标及其稳定性的动态检验。对长春市1995年～2006年城市道路交通干线噪声监测的数据运用灰色系统理论,分别建立了3种预测模型,并对这3种模型的各项滑动指标、一步预测滚动指标分别进行了检验。     

湟水河小流域地下水脆弱性评价

湟水河地处西北高原干旱地区,针对其流域地下水的特点,选取包气带介质、水位埋深、含水层介质、含水层厚度、净补给量和地形坡度共6个指标并运用三标度AHP法为各个指标赋予权重,构建了改进的DRASTIC模型。运用改进DRASTIC模型对湟水河的小流域范围的地下水脆弱性进行了评价。结果表明,湟水河沿岸的部分地区和西堡村附近地下水脆弱性高,地下水易受到污染。与传统DRASTIC模型相比,改进模型与实际情况更加吻合。     

RIP-N模型对官厅水库库滨带去氮效应的流域尺度模拟分析

以官厅水库库滨带为研究对象,构建适用于流域尺度岸边带去氮负荷估算的生态水文模型——RIP-N(Riparian-Nitrogen)模型,对官厅水库库滨带2007年3~9月间岸边带去氮效应进行分析.同时,在延庆水保站开展田间尺度的野外模拟实验,结合室内外试验分析和以往研究成果,对模型模拟结果进行验证.RIP-N模型包括土壤化学过程模拟和植物生长过程模拟.前者包括土壤反硝化模拟、硝化模拟和氨挥发模拟;后者包括植物净第一性生产力(net primary productivity,NPP)模拟、植物生产力分配模拟和植物营养元素吸收模拟.结果表明:①RIP-N模型模拟值与实验值的决定系数大于0.5,证明该模型在空间尺度模拟上的有效性及模拟结果的可靠性;②模型模拟结果表明官厅水库库滨带流域3~9月对N的总去除量为5.91×103t;③RIP-N模型对官厅水库库滨带去氮环境效益分析表明,当前库滨带土地利用格局中,滩地、林地和草地是去污效果较好的土地利用类型,3~9月对流域的去N量占流域总去N量的76.5%,在非点源污染防治中起到"汇"的作用;但是研究区中专属湿地的"汇"作用表现不明显,3~9月去N量仅占流域总去N量的5.9...     

The early warning of aquatic organophosphorus pesticide contamination by on-line monitoring behavioral changes of Daphnia magna

In this paper, the movement behavior of Daphnia magna was studied as a bio-indicator of organophosphorous pesticide (OP) contamination, using an on-line bio-monitoring method, the Multispecies Freshwater Biomonitor. A static test of acute toxicity test revealed the 24-h and 48-h LC(50) values (95% confidence limit) for Daphnia magna to be respectively 0.45 microg/l and 0.21 microg/l for dipterex 3.80 microg/l and 0.90 microg/l for malathion, and 1.25 microg/l and 0.38 microg/l for parathion. The behavior strength of Daphnia magna was a sensitive indicator of sublethal OP stress and resulted in significant concentration-response relationships for the three OPs. Increasing OP concentration will result in more intensive behavioral responses of Daphnia magna and shorter response time, which could be described by the Stepwise Stress Model (SSM). Therefore movement behavior can be effectively applied in early warning of environment quality by on-line bio-monitoring. The intensive changes in behavior strength of Daphnia magna over a short time follow the SSM concept and can be used as an indicator of early stress response to OP accidental contamination.     

污染源自动监测异常数据识别规则及处理方法探索

基于大量污染源自动监测数据的特征分析与异常原因解析,探索建立针对自动监测异常数据的识别规则与标志处理方法,并通过模型训练实现了异常数据的自动标志.经实例验证,该方法可识别异常偏高、异常偏低、异常为0、迟滞不变、逻辑错误等5种类型的异常数据,按照数据有效性及异常原因进行标志处理,可以为后续数据分析及各类模型训练提供数据基...     

水质变化趋势的综合评价模型

采用模糊集对分析方法，综合评价了某自来水厂1982年—1987年水质动态变化趋势，评价结果与密切值法得出的结论基本一致，实例分析表明，模糊集对模型的评价信息量多，评价结论合理、可靠，是一种简单而实用的评价方法。     

Development and validation of abiotic ligand model for nickel toxicity to wheat (Triticum aestivum)

A terrestrial biotic ligand model (t-BLM) was developed to predict nickel toxicity to wheat (Triticum aestivum) root elongation in hydroponic solutions. The competitive effects of five major cations (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, K⁺ and H⁺) on Ni toxicity were investigated and Mg²⁺ was found to be a strong competitor, while H²⁺ showed less competing effect. Besides free Ni²⁺, the toxicity induced by the species NiHCO₃⁺ was non-neglect able at pH > 7 because NiHCO₃⁺ occupied a significant fraction of total Ni under such condition. Thus, a t-BLM including Ni²⁺, NiHCO₃⁺, Mg²⁺, and H⁺ could successfully predict the nickel toxicity to wheat root elongation and it performed better prediction than the conventional free ion activity model. In addition, the model was examined with two sets of independent experiments, which contained multiple cations and low-molecular-weight organic acids to mimic the rhizo-sphere condition. The developed t-BLM well predicted nickel toxicity in both experiments since it can account in both complexation and competition effects, suggesting its potential to be used in a complicated matrix like soil solution. This study provides direct evidence that the t-BLM is a reliable method for the risk assessment of nickel in terrestrial system.