Using equation discovery to revise an Earth ecosystem model of the carbon net production

Equation discovery approaches to automated modeling from observed data usually derive equation-based models from scratch rather than from an initial model already established in the domain of use. In this paper, we present an approach that uses new or recent observational data to improve an existing equation-based model. The approach is used to reduce the error of the Earth ecosystem model of the net production of carbon in the atmosphere. We revise the initial ecosystem model in two directions. First, we calibrate the values of the constant parameters in the model on new observational data. Second, we allow the use of alternative equation structures for some of the sub-models of the initial model and use our approach to choose among them. Experiments show that both revision of values of the constant parameters and revision of the structures of sub-models can considerably reduce the error of the initial model.     

环境信息系统中关于办公自动化的探讨

在简要介绍环境信息系统概况的同时 ,重点在办公自动化系统上提出了一些体会 ,并从开发、应用等几方面说明了办公自动化系统作为一项系统工程在目前信息中的作用     

环境质量灰色评价模型及其应用

根据灰色关联分析的地质，构造目标函数，运用拉格朗日乘数法求极值，建立了一种新的环境质量评价模型．结合实例说明了该模型的具体应用．与其它方法进行了对比，结果完全一致．该模型数学推导严谨、科学合理、分辩率高、可靠性强．     

湿地可持续发展与经济损益的理论分析

文章分析了中国湿地可持续发展的基本内涵和人为干扰的限制因子，建立了湿地人为干扰破坏损益分析技术路线，提出了经济损益分析理论模型及损益度计量模型。     

公路工程施工安全事故致因模型构建

为了探究公路施工安全事故诱因及其影响关系,基于"4M"理论和事故致因"2-4"模型,识别公路工程施工安全事故致因因素并确定模型框架,运用SPSS Modeler软件对2007~2017年426起事故进行关联规则挖掘,采取路径分析与重要度分析,构建出公路工程施工安全事故致因模型。结果表明:施工单位内外部原因共同引发公路工程施工安全事故,外部原因来源于建设单位、监理单位和勘察设计单位的安全管理缺失,而施工单位内部影响因素中,人的不安全动作、物的不安全因素、不良的生产环境和自然环境是事故发生的直接原因,无效的安全监管和作业层安全素质及能力不强是间接原因,根本原因是施工程序和技术方案存在缺陷,根源原因是决策层和管理层的安全素质及能力有待提高。该模型系统展现了工程施工项目安全事故致因因素的影响关系和重要程度,为公路工程施工安全事故预防提供指导。     

How are Results from Critical Load Calculations Reflected in Lake Water Chemistry?

The Steady State Water Chemistry Model (SSWCM) is a common method for determinations of critical loadof acid and subsequently of critical loadexceedance for lakes. One way to verify the modeloutput, is to compare with chemical indicatorssuch as pH-value, alkalinity or ANC. When themedian chemical status (as ANC) is used 65% ofthe lakes responded according to the exceedancevalue. For these the calculated exceedanceresulted in violation of the critical chemicalvalue while non-exceedance gave no violation.Since biota react on extreme conditions a morecorrect evaluation should be based on minimumvalues for the chemical indicator. This raises thefraction of lakes responding to 78%. Non-exceedance is seldom found inlakes with acid conditions. The evaluationindicates that the calculation of critical load ofacidity by means of SSWCM is very reliable.     

气候变化对我国水文水资源系统的影响研究

旨在介绍气候变化对我国水文水资源系统影响研究的进展、方法、技术及其优缺点,并分析气候变暖对我国水文水资源系统的影响结果,同时提出自己的一些建议。     

Development and Application of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Model

The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model simulates the Chesapeake watershed land use, river flows, and the associated transport and fate of nutrient and sediment loads to the Chesapeake Bay. The Phase 5.3 Model is the most recent of a series of increasingly refined versions of a model that have been operational for more than two decades. The Phase 5.3 Model, in conjunction with models of the Chesapeake airshed and estuary, provides estimates of management actions needed to protect water quality, achieve Chesapeake water quality standards, and restore living resources. The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model tracks nutrient and sediment load estimates of the entire 166,000 km² watershed, including loads from all six watershed states. The creation of software systems, input datasets, and calibration methods were important aspects of the model development process. A community model approach was taken with model development and application, and the model was developed by a broad coalition of model practitioners including environmental engineers, scientists, and environmental managers. Among the users of the Phase 5.3 Model are the Chesapeake watershed states and local governments, consultants, river basin commissions, and universities. Development and application of the model are described, as well as key scenarios ranging from high nutrient and sediment load conditions if no management actions were taken in the watershed, to low load estimates of an all‐forested condition.     

Cost-Effective Control of Ground-Level Ozone Pollution in and around Beijing

Abstract

Ground level ozone pollution has become a significant air pollution problem in Beijing. Because of the complex way in which ozone is formed, it is difficult for policy makers to identify optimal control options on a cost-effective basis. This paper identifies and assesses a range of options for addressing this problem. We apply the Ambient Least Cost Model and compare the economic costs of control options, then recommend the most effective sequence to realize pollution control at the lowest cost. The study finds that installing of Stage II gasoline vapor recovery system at Beijing’s 1446 gasoline stations would be the most cost-effective option. Overall, options to reduce ozone pollution by cutting vehicular emissions are much more cost-effective than options to “clean up” coal-fired power plants.     

正念对应急疏散行为:风险感知和自我效能的中介作用*

为明确正念对应急疏散行为的影响机制,提高应急疏散效率,构建包含应急正念、风险感知、自我效能、掩蔽效应和应急疏散行为的概念模型,基于调查问卷结果,利用结构方程模型进行实证研究。研究结果表明:正念、风险感知和自我效能对应急疏散行为存在正向影响,正念通过风险感知和自我效能对应急疏散行为产生部分中介效应;掩蔽效应在自我效能影响应急疏散行为过程中具有显著调节作用;正念通过风险感知能力提高自我效能,进一步对应急疏散行为产生影响。研究结果可为缓解突发事件带来的不良情绪及压力,增强个体自信程度及风险感知能力,提高应急疏散效率提供参考和借鉴。