基于遥感-过程耦合模型的地表蒸散量应用研究

作为陆面过程中地气相互作用的重要过程之一,蒸散发(Evapotranspiration,ET)在地球的大气圈-水圈-生物圈中发挥着重要作用。利用遥感-过程耦合模型BEPS,以中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)数据和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料为主要输入,模拟分析了2007-2009年美国区域的地表ET,同时利用通量观测网AmeriFlux的站点观测数据验证该模型在ET模拟研究中的可靠性与适应。结果表明：12个站点通量实测值与BEPS模型模拟的ET值的相关系数为0.7297(P<0.05),表明BEPS模型能够较好的模拟研究区的地表ET。ET在1年内呈现明显的单峰趋势,5-9月ET值较高,可达60 mm·mon-1以上,最小值在1月份,值为8.39 mm·mon-1,最大值在7月份,值为118.04 mm·mon-1。该区域ET的平均年总量为505 mm·a-1。受地形、气候的影响,ET最高值对应于南部区域,这些地区ET的年总量普遍在600 mm·a-1以上,最高值为1667 mm·a-1,对应的主要覆被类型为草地和农田;中北部和东部的大部分区域ET年总量为400~600 mm·a-1;ET最小值在西部区域,年总量小于400 mm·a-1,对应覆被类型为疏林地和混交林。降水量与ET差值呈现从东向西逐渐递减的趋势,最小值主要分布在西部沙漠。整个研究区域ET与降水量之比的平均值为0.72,由东向西基本呈现增加趋势,在西部以及中北部的部分地区比值达到最大。     

应用生物配体模型研究湘江水体中铜的生物有效性

为评估湘江水体中铜的生物有效性,通过铜对青鳉的急性毒性实验确定铜对青鳉的半致死浓度(LC₅₀),然后利用生物配体模型(Biotic Ligand Model, BLM)确定青鳉的累积半致死浓度(LA₅₀)。同时对湘江水样的预测结果表明,铜对青鳉的LA₅₀为12.43 nmol?gw^-1;BLM预测的与实验观测的LC₅₀差异倍数小于2,表明BLM预测结果非常准确。在此基础上预测铜对青鳉LC₅₀预测范围为344.70～761.96 μg?L^-1。湘江各点水质最终急性值(FAV)相差不大(11.04～14.25 μg?L^-1),但水中溶解态铜含量相差较大(0.29～10.48 μg?L^-1),同时毒性单位值(TU)相差较大(0.06～1.48 μg?L^-1),其中最小值在舂陵水入湘江下游采样断面,最大值在株洲断面。在全部调查断面中,只有株洲断面TU大于1(1.48),说明株洲断面水中铜含量超过了该断面水中BLM确定的标准最大浓度1.48倍。     

A mechanistic model for hydrocarbon plumes rising through water

For releases of hydrocarbons from a subsea pipeline, riser, or production facility, the shape of the plume rising through the water must be predicted prior to any assessment of gas dispersion, liquid pools, or fire above the water surface. The location and size of the plume at the water surface are key parameters for subsequent consequence modeling. A mechanistic model has been developed to predict the plume trajectory and size, based on mass and momentum balances and an empirical water entrainment ratio from the literature. With suitable physical property values available, the model is applicable to releases of gas and/or liquid hydrocarbons, predicting the vaporization and vapor expansion due to decreasing hydrostatic pressure as the plume rises through the water. Some validation of the model was obtained with 16 tests in a small-scale transparent tank. The data cover a wide range of flow rates, including both choked and unchoked flow. The predicted and measured trajectories (centerline displacement) agreed reasonably well. Predictions of the model are presented for three fluids. The model is valuable for assessing the consequences of underwater hydrocarbon releases, providing input for subsequent modeling of gas dispersion or liquid pools and pool fires.     

影响上海的一次沙尘过程WRF-Dust数值模拟

利用完全耦合大气化学模式WRF-Dust(Weather Research and Forecasting-Dust)对2011年5月1~4日影响上海地区的一次典型沙尘天气过程进行了数值模拟研究,并与观测资料进行了对比分析.结果表明:WRF-Dust模式成功模拟了此次沙尘过程的形成、发展和演变的整体特征及其影响时间及范围;较好地模拟了沙尘到达上海的时间(模式和观测均在1日11:00前后)和直接影响的结束时间(2日02:00前后),而且模式沙尘浓度与观测资料较为一致;但局部地区和部分时段的气象条件和沙尘模拟还存在一定的偏差,未能准确模拟过程后期沙尘回流对长三角沿海地区的影响.分析了导致模拟偏差的原因,并探讨了提高模式沙尘模拟能力的可能途径.     

The combined effects of biomass and temperature on maximum specific ammonia oxidation rate in domestic wastewater treatment

• Actual SAORs was determined using MLVSS and temperature. • Measured SAOR decreased with increasing MLVSS 1.1‒8.7 g/L. • Temperature coefficient (θ) decreased with increasing MLVSS. • Nitrification process was dynamically simulated based on laboratory-scale SBR tests. • A modified model was successfully validated in pilot-scale SBR systems. Measurement and predicted variations of ammonia oxidation rate (AOR) are critical for the optimization of biological nitrogen removal, however, it is difficult to predict accurate AOR based on current models. In this study, a modified model was developed to predict AOR based on laboratory-scale tests and verified through pilot-scale tests. In biological nitrogen removal reactors, the specific ammonia oxidation rate (SAOR) was affected by both mixed liquor volatile suspended solids (MLVSS) concentration and temperature. When MLVSS increased 1.6, 4.2, and 7.1-fold (1.3‒8.9 g/L, at 20°C), the measured SAOR decreased by 21%, 49%, and 56%, respectively. Thereby, the estimated SAOR was suggested to modify when MLVSS changed through a power equation fitting. In addition, temperature coefficient (θ) was modified based on MLVSS concentration. These results suggested that the prediction of variations ammonia oxidation rate in real wastewater treatment system could be more accurate when considering the effect of MLVSS variations on SAOR.     

GIS环境下基于DEM的中国流域自动提取方法

应用地理信息系统平台,建立基于水文站网和水资源信息的空间化水循环数据库是研制开发全国水循环信息管理系统的关键和基础,为了与全国水文站网的观测资料相匹配,水循环数据库的结构将按流域组织,因此快速、有效地自动提取全国流域是所有工作进展的前提。为了从数字高程数据中自动提取全国流域,以提高基于GIS的全国水资源信息获取的效率,从DEM的特性出发,提出了一种从DEM中自动提取全国流域的实用方法。该方法利用1：25万DEM数据,首先将全国流域划分为14大流域片,并在每一流域片内分别提取流域。提取过程如下：首先对DEM数据进行填洼和削峰,然后确定每个栅格单元的水流方向,再根据各栅格单元的水流方向,计算出每个栅格单元的汇流能力,根据汇流能力采用阈值法确定河流网络,最后通过河流网络和流域出水口,快速识别出所有子流域。另外,还给出了利用GIS软件ARC/INFO GRID提取全国流域的AML程序代码,并以海河流域作为实验区将抽样测量结果和自动提取结果进行了实验对比分析,其结果表明利用该方法提取的流域数据与利用手工方法绘制的流域基本一致,证明该方法是有效的。     

大秦线重载运输安全保障系统的研究

笔者针对大秦线重载运输安全保障工作的特点 ,提出了对大秦线重载运输安全保障系统的综合性、信息化、系统性和适应性要求 ,同时结合大秦线划归大同分局统一单独管理的特性 ,研究了以保证运输安全为核心的大秦线重载运输安全保障系统的四层结构 ;即系统除常规执行层、综合信息层和管理层日常运行指挥系统外 ,还增加了战略决策层 ,并对各任务层的构成和功能分别进行了重点论述。该系统在大同分局进行了初步试验并获得成功 ,因而为未来我国进一步研究重载运输安全保障系统提供了非常有价值的参考。     

Tijuana Childhood Lead Risk Assessment Revisited: Validating a GIS Model with Environmental Data

The objective of this research was to determine the spatial distributions of childhood lead poisoning and soil lead contamination in urban Tijuana. The Bocco–Sanchez model of point-source emissions was evaluated in terms of validity and reliability. We compared the model's predicted vulnerable populations with observed cases of childhood lead poisoning in Tijuana, identified fixed point sources in the field, and analyzed 76 soil samples from 14 sites. The soil lead results were compared to the blood lead analyses performed on Tijuana children whose blood lead levels were ≥10 μg/dL, who reported that they did not use lead-glazed ceramics for cooking or storing food (n = 63). Using GIS, predicted vs observed risk areas were assessed by examining spatial patterns, including the distribution of cases per designated risk area. Chi-square analysis of expected vs observed values did not differ significantly at the p = 0.02 level, showing that the model was strikingly accurate in predicting the distribution of subjects with elevated blood lead. Results reveal that while point sources are significant, other sources of lead exposure are also important. The relative public health risk from exposure to lead in an urban setting may be assessed by distinguishing among sources of exposure and associating concentrations to blood lead levels. The results represent an iterative approach in environmental health research by linking environmental and human biomarker lead concentrations and using these results to validate an environmental model of risk to lead exposure.     

Evaluation of Flood and Landslide Risk to the Population of Italy

We have compiled a database of floods and landslides that occurred in Italy between AD 1279 and 2002 and caused deaths, missing persons, injuries, and homelessness. Analysis of the database indicates that more than 50,593 people died, went missing, or were injured in 2580 flood and landslide events. Harmful events were inventoried in 26.3% of the 8103 Italian municipalities. Fatal events were most frequent in the Alpine regions of northern Italy and were caused by both floods and landslides. In southern Italy, landslides were the principal agents of fatalities and were most numerous in the Campania region. Casualties were most frequent in the autumn. Fast-moving landslides, including rock falls, rockslides, rock avalanches, and debris flows, caused the largest number of deaths. In order to assess the overall risk posed by these processes, we merged the historical catalogs and identified 2682 “hydrogeomorphological” events that triggered single or multiple landslides and floods. We estimated individual risk through the calculation of mortality rates for both floods and landslides and compared these rates to the death rates for other natural, medical, and human-induced hazards in Italy. We used the frequency distribution of events with fatalities to ascertain the magnitude and frequency of the societal risks posed by floods and landslides. We quantified these risks in a Bayesian model that describes the probabilities of fatal flood and landslide events in Italy.     

军民协调灾害卫生救援体制的情报与模式研究

通过对国内外军民协调灾害卫生救援体制现状的对比分析，找出我国现行灾害卫生救援体制与国外体制之间的差距，分析了产生差距的原因．在此基础上，从加强军民协调、平战结合角度，提出我国灾害卫生救援体制四种框架模式，运用专家咨询法与层次分析法相结合的方法进行综合评估。明确了我国军民协调灾害卫生救援体制发展的战略目标和近中期目标，从而提出加强我国军民协调灾害卫生救援体制建设的对策与建议．