Why did the pilots shut down the wrong engine? Explaining errors in context using Schema Theory and the Perceptual Cycle Model

Although human error remains a dominant issue in aviation research, methods that predict human error have been criticised for not providing adequate causal explanations, rather they have focused on classification. The concept of Schemata has prevailed in the literature and has been shown to describe the contextual causes of human error. The purpose of this paper is to review the recent error literature and demonstrate that Schema Theory (as incorporated in the Perceptual Cycle framework) offers a compelling causal account of human error. Schema Theory offers a system perspective with a focus on human activity in context to explain why apparently erroneous actions occurred, even though they may have appeared to be appropriate at the time. This is exemplified in a case study of the pilots’ actions preceding the 1989 Kegworth accident. Schema Theory is presented as a promising avenue for further exploration into the context of human error in aviation.     

产业结构调整对北京市碳减排目标的影响

中国向世界承诺将能源消耗强度和CO2排放强度作为约束性指标,实现2020年单位国内生产总值碳排放强度较2005年下降40%-45%。北京作为中国的首都,对其他城市更具有"示范作用"。本文以北京市产业结构为基础,根据能源消耗种类、政府间气候变化委员会公布的折算系数和北京实际生产总值,计算1995-2012年北京市碳排放水平。文中首先运用基于环境影响评估的可拓展随机模型,检验出第一、二、三产业结构与CO2排放量之间存在显著关系,并计算出总体产业结构变动的相对贡献水平。而后重点把三大产业进行细分为7个产业,即第一产业、工业、建筑业、电力热力、交通运输仓储邮政业、批发零售住宿餐饮业和生活部门,验证了细分产业与CO2排放量之间存在显著关系,并计算出各个产业的相对贡献水平。随后利用对数权重平衡分析法先对三大产业的CO2排放水平进行绝对量分解,同时按7个产业进行绝对量分解,并结合随机拓展模型进行分析。最后研究北京市产业结构调整对碳减排的效应,提出要同时加快内部产业升级与产业间协调发展,加快提升第三产业能源利用效率的政策建议。     

Synthesizing units as modeling tool for photosynthesizing organisms with photoinhibition and nutrient limitation

This paper develops a mechanistic ecological model of photosynthesis based on a synthesizing unit with terms for nutrient limitation and wavelength dependent photoinhibition. The model satisfactorily fits standard P-I data with a clear inhibitory impact of excess radiation. Furthermore, the model satisfactorily discriminates between the inhibitory impact of PAR, UVA and UVB. The inhibitory potential of UVA is less than 1 order of magnitude higher than that of PAR, whereas that of UVB is about 2 orders of magnitude higher than PAR. The model can also satisfactorily describe photosynthesis rates as a function of both PAR and environmental nitrate concentrations. At relatively low nutrient levels, the model produces a curve that ascends quickly to a near saturation level; this is a trend often observed in experimental data and described well by a hyperbolic tangent. The results in this paper suggest that nutrient limitation is an overlooked factor in the experimental design for obtaining P-I data. The SU model in this paper is the simplest possible model of photosynthesis with nutrient limitation and photoinhibition that is consistent with Dynamic Energy Budget theory, in which the model can be embedded to obtain dynamic properties.     

Revisiting Kappa to account for change in the accuracy assessment of land-use change models

Land-use change models are typically calibrated to reproduce known historic changes. Calibration results can then be assessed by comparing two datasets: the simulated land-use map and the actual land-use map at the same time. A common method for this is the Kappa statistic, which expresses the agreement between two categorical datasets corrected for the expected agreement. This expected agreement is based on a stochastic model of random allocation given the distribution of class sizes. However, when a model starts from an initial land-use map and makes changes to it, that stochastic model does not pose a meaningful reference level. This paper introduces K_Simulation, a statistic that is identical in form to the Kappa statistic but instead applies a more appropriate stochastic model of random allocation of class transitions relative to the initial map. The new method is illustrated on a simple example and then the results of the Kappa statistic and K_Simulation are compared using the results of a land-use model. It is found that only K_Simulation truly tests models in their capacity to explain land-use changes over time, and unlike Kappa it does not inflate results for simulations where little change takes place over time.     

Assessing the effects of disease and bleaching on Florida Keys corals by fitting population models to data

Coral diseases have increased in frequency over the past few decades and have important influences on the structure and composition of coral reef communities. However, there is limited information on the etiologies of many coral diseases, and pathways through which coral diseases are acquired and transmitted are still in question. Furthermore, it is difficult to assess the impacts of disease on coral populations because outbreaks often co-occur with temperature-induced bleaching and anthropogenic stressors. We developed spatially explicit population models of coral disease and bleaching dynamics to quantify the impact of six common diseases on Florida Keys corals, including aspergillosis, dark spots, white band, white plague, white patch, and Caribbean yellow band. Models were fit to an 8-year data set of coral abundance, disease prevalence, and bleaching prevalence. Model selection was used to assess alternative pathways for disease transmission, and the influence of environmental stressors, including sea temperature and human population density, on disease prevalence and coral mortality. Classic disease transmission from contagious to susceptible colonies provided the best-fit model only for aspergillosis. For other diseases, external disease forcing, such as through a vector or directly from pathogens in the environment, provided the best fit to observed data. Estimates of disease reproductive ratio values (R₀) were less than one for each disease, indicating coral colonies were below densities required for diseases to become established through contagious spread alone. Incidences of white band and white patch disease were associated with greater susceptibility or slower recovery of bleached colonies, and no disease outbreaks were associated with periods of elevated sea temperatures alone. Projections of best-fit models indicated that, atleast during the period of this study, disease and bleaching did not have substantial impacts on populations and impaired rates of population growth appeared to be attributable to other stressors. By applying epidemiological models to field data, our study gives qualitative insights into the dynamics of coral diseases, relative stressor impacts, and directions for future research.     

Model for predicting hydroxylamine nitrate stability in plutonium process solutions

A mathematical model is described that may be used to determine the safety of hydroxylamine nitrate (HAN) solutions used in solvent extraction purification of plutonium. The most significant hazard associated with hydroxylamine use in processing plutonium is its rapid, autocatalytic reaction with nitric acid which can result in an explosion or pressurization of process vessels with radiological consequences to humans. In addition, heat is produced by the reaction that could potentially ignite process solvents. The HAN decomposition reaction can occur only under specific process conditions (temperature; HAN, plutonium and nitric acid concentrations) and the model is used to identify these conditions so that they can be avoided. A kinetics model has been developed using all of the known significant reactions that could occur in process solutions containing HAN and nitric acid as well as plutonium and iron. The reaction kinetics data (rate laws, rate constants, activation energies) used in the model were obtained from chemical literature sources. The model shows that the autocatalytic HAN reaction with nitric acid is very rapid and is catalyzed by Pu(III) and Fe(II) in process solutions. High temperatures and nitric acid concentrations also promote the reaction.     

基于MNL离散选择模型的社区居民对湿地保护的贡献意愿——以大庆湿地为例

社区居民的贡献意愿研究是进行湿地保护的重要切入点。以大庆湿地社区为案例地,设计了“仅金钱”“仅劳动”“两者皆愿意”“两者皆不愿”4个贡献意愿类型,通过问卷调查统计社区居民的贡献意愿现状,并运用MNL模型分析社区居民个人特征对贡献意愿选择偏好的倾向性影响及边际影响。研究结论如下：第一,79.8%的社区居民对湿地保护具有贡献意愿,劳动贡献意愿高于金钱贡献意愿;第二,性别、年龄、月收入、受教育程度、加入环保组织、接受过环保教育为社区居民贡献意愿选择偏好的关键影响因素;第三,提高社区居民的受教育程度和月收入、让社区居民加入环保组织和进行环保宣传可以显著提升社区居民的贡献意愿水平。研究将劳动作为一种直观的贡献价值进行体现,使对贡献意愿的研究不再仅仅局限于货币形式。建议湿地管理者应重视针对湿地社区的环保宣传与环保组织运作,重视劳动形式在环保贡献中的重要作用。     

基于SWMM水量模拟的人工雨水湿地规模确定方法

人工雨水湿地在控制地表径流污染以及削减地表径流总量方面具有重要作用,但是雨水湿地规模确定往往需要经过复杂的计算;本研究以北京市未来科技城雨水湿地设计为例,研究了基于SWMM(storm water management model)模型的人工雨水湿地规模确定方法;研究表明通过SWMM模型能够较为简便的计算出雨水湿地的规模和形态。     

灰场包气带环境影响预测方法研究——以新疆某电厂灰场为例

灰场在防渗不当或事故工况下,淋滤液的渗漏可能会对灰场包气带产生影响。以新疆某火电厂灰场的淋滤液渗漏情景为例,介绍了淋滤液渗漏对包气带影响的3种预测方法并进行对比分析。结果表明,两类解析法计算误差较大且存在各自适用条件,应优先采用数值法进行定量化预测。     

Long-chain alkanes in the atmosphere: A review

As a representative species of intermediate volatile organic compounds (IVOCs), long-chain alkanes are considered to be important precursors of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) in the atmosphere. This work reviews the previous studies on long-chain alkanes in the atmosphere: (1) the detection methods and filed observations of long-chain alkanes in both gas and particle phases are summarized briefly; (2) the laboratory studies of long chain alkanes are reviewed, the kinetic data, reaction mechanism, SOA yields, and physicochemical properties of SOA are included in detail; (3) the research progress related to model simulations of long-chain alkanes are also discussed. In addition, based on available research results, several perspective contents are proposed that can be used as a guideline for future research plans.