Cost-Effective Control of Ground-Level Ozone Pollution in and around Beijing

Ground level ozone pollution has become a significant air pollution problem in Beijing. Because of the complex way in which ozone is formed, it is difficult for policy makers to identify optimal control options on a cost-effective basis. This paper identi-fies and assesses a range of options for addressing this problem. We apply the Ambient Least Cost Model and compare the eco-nomic costs of control options, then recommend the most effective sequence to realize pollution control at the lowest cost. The study finds that installing of Stage II gasoline vapor recovery system at Beijing’s 1446 gasoline stations would be the most cost-effective option. Overall, options to reduce ozone pollution by cutting ve-hicular emissions are much more cost-effective than options to "clean up" coal-fired power plants.     

Just Turn on the Faucet: A Content Analysis of PSAs About the Global Water Crisis on YouTube

Water is essential for human life, yet safe drinking water is a limited resource. Critical to fighting the global water crisis are public awareness campaigns, including Public Service Announcements (PSAs). While YouTube has become a popular medium for disseminating prosocial content such as PSAs, environmental communication efforts on this platform remain largely uninvestigated. This study examines the content and characteristics of global water crisis PSAs on YouTube by applying two communication models: the Extended Parallel Process Model, and the Elaboration Likelihood Model. These models are used to evaluate the potential effectiveness of the PSAs. Content analysis reveals that threat messages often outweigh efficacy messages in the videos, central route processing cues are more prevalent than peripheral route cues, and a focus on quality or quantity issues differed by sponsoring organization (non-profit, for-profit, government). Implications and avenues for potential future research are discussed.     

基于灰色马尔可夫模型的城市污水量预测

城市污水量是进行排水工程设计的基础数据,灰色系统理论在预测城市污水排放量中有着广泛的应用.基于2001-2009年天津市城市污水排放量数据,建立灰色模型对2010-2015年生活污水排放量和工业废水排放量进行预测;由于工业废水排水量数据波动较大,灰色预测结果不准确,采用马尔可夫模型对灰色预测结果进行修正.结果表明,灰色马尔可夫模型预测准确性高;预计2015年,生活污水排放量为65120.57万t,工业废水排放量为19339.39万t;随着时间的推移,天津市生活污水排放量在城市污水排放总量中的百分比越来越大.     

资源税改革中的经济行为和政府决策分析

资源是人类社会赖以存在的物质基础,也是社会经济发展的前提和必要条件,随着我国经济的快速发展,资源逐渐成为制约经济发展的"瓶颈",如何有效配置资源成为当前我国社会发展和经济转型的重要议题.国外经验证明可以通过资源税杠杆有效调节代际内和代际间的资源配置,提高资源使用效率.经济主体的行为和政府决策直接影响资源税改革的进程,本文构建世代交叠模型,通过资源税改革前后生产者和消费者的效用函数,分析并比较经济系统中主体不同济行为变化,在此基础上以资本和劳动动态变化来探讨资源税改革后的经济稳定性,并通过存在风险和政府声誉约束条件下的政府效用函数,分析和研究资源税改革中影响政府决策行为的主要因素,研究表明:资源税改革会对生产、消费产生影响,使经济主体的行为发生相应变化,但适当的资源税政策将保证经济稳定增长;同时改革成本、改革对产出的影响程度、政府风险态度和政府声誉等将影响政府决策行为,最后针对以上影响因素本文提出相应政策建议.     

环境空气污染预测预报探讨

文章简要回顾了环境空气污染预报的发展历史，阐述了开展污染预报的意义和作用。在此基础上重点探讨了环境空气污染预报的程序，特点和方法，对通常预测方法和优缺点进行了分析，并对其发展趋势作子简单的预测。     

冀中南平原区气溶胶标高变化及估算模型研究

作为反映大气气溶胶垂直分布的重要参量,气溶胶标高被广泛应用于气溶胶反演及模型订正研究中.为研究气溶胶标高时空变化规律并构建其简易计算模型,基于2009～2016年气象站点观测资料及MODIS卫星反演数据,利用Peterson模型及多元回归分析对冀中南平原区气溶胶标高进行了估算分析.研究结果表明:区域气溶胶标高夏季最高,...     

Statistical modeling of cargo tank truck crashes: Rollover and release of hazardous materials

Introduction: Cargo Tank Trucks (CTTs) are a primary surface transportation carrier of hazardous materials (hazmat) in the United States and CTT rollover crashes are the leading cause of injuries and fatalities from hazmat transportation incidents. CTTs are susceptible to rollover crashes because of their size, distribution of weight, a higher center of gravity, and the surging and sloshing of liquid cargo during transportation. This study identified and quantified the effects of various factors on the probability of rollover and release of hazmat in traffic crashes where a CTT was involved. Method: Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)-based logistic regression models were estimated with rollover and hazmat release as the binary response variables, and crash, truck, roadway, environment, and driver characteristics as the explanatory variables. 2010–2016 police-reported CTT-involved crash data from Nebraska and Kansas was utilized. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves confirmed appropriateness of the modeling approach for inference and prediction on the crash dataset. Results: CTTs are more likely to rollover in crashes while turning and changing lanes relative to going straight; side impacts (side collisions) and severe crosswinds increased the likelihood of rollovers; tractor and semi-trailer body style decreased the probability of rollover, while truck tractors are more prone to rollovers; collisions with fixed objects and higher posted speeds increased the rollover probability; rollovers and intersection crash locations increased the likelihood of hazmat release. Conclusions: The findings can assist stakeholders (policy-makers, private shippers, and CTT drivers) in restricting CTTs’ operations for safety; scheduling, routing, and fleet planning; and low-level decision-making (e.g., emergency stopping or local routing). Practical Applications: This study identified and quantified the effects of different factors on the conditional probability of rollover and release of hazmat in CTT-involved crashes. The findings may assist stakeholders in decision-making towards safe operations of CTTs for transportation of hazmat.     

Effects of Land‐Use and Land‐Cover Change on Evapotranspiration and Water Yield in China During 1900‐20001

Abstract: China has experienced a rapid land‐use/cover change (LUCC) during the 20th Century, and this process is expected to continue in the future. How LUCC has affected water resources across China, however, remains uncertain due to the complexity of LUCC‐water interactions. In this study, we used an integrated Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) in conjunction with spatial data of LUCC to estimate the LUCC effects on the magnitude, spatial and temporal variations of evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, and water yield across China. Through comparisons of DLEM results with other model simulations, field observations, and river discharge data, we found that DLEM model can adequately catch the spatial and seasonal patterns of hydrological processes. Our simulation results demonstrate that LUCC led to substantial changes in ET, runoff, and water yield in most of the China’s river basins during the 20th Century. The temporal and spatial patterns varied significantly across China. The largest change occurred during the second half century when almost all of the river basins had a decreasing trend in ET and an increasing trend in water yield and runoff, in contrast to the inclinations of ET and declinations of water yield in major river basins, such as Pearl river basin, Yangtze river basin, and Yellow river basin during the first half century. The increased water yield and runoff indicated alleviated water deficiency in China in the late 20th Century, but the increased peak flow might make the runoff difficult to be held by reservoirs. The continuously increasing ET and decreasing water yield in Continental river basin, Southwest river basin, and Songhua and Liaohe river basin implied regional water deficiency. Our study in China indicates that deforestation averagely increased ET by 138 mm/year but decreased water yield by the same amount and that reforestation averagely decreased ET by 422 mm/year since most of deforested land was converted to paddy land or irrigated cropland. In China, cropland‐related land transformation is the dominant anthropogenic force affecting water resources during the 20th Century. On national average, cropland expansion was estimated to increase ET by 182 mm/year while cropland abandonment decreased ET by 379 mm/year. Our simulation results indicate that urban sprawl generally decreased ET and increased water yield. Cropland managements (fertilization and irrigation) significantly increased ET by 98 mm/year. To better understand LUCC effects on China’s water resources, it is needed to take into account the interactions of LUCC with other environmental changes such as climate and atmospheric composition.     

Evaluation of the community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) model version 4.5: Sensitivities impacting model performance; Part II—particulate matter

This paper is Part II in a pair of papers that examines the results of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 4.5 (v4.5) and discusses the potential explanations for the model performance characteristics seen. The focus of this paper is on fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and its chemical composition. Improvements made to the dry deposition velocity and cloud treatment in CMAQ v4.5 addressing compensating errors in 36-km simulations improved particulate sulfate (SO₄²⁻) predictions. Large overpredictions of particulate nitrate (NO₃⁻) and ammonium (NH₄⁺) in the fall are likely due to a gross overestimation of seasonal ammonia (NH₃) emissions. Carbonaceous aerosol concentrations are substantially underpredicted during the late spring and summer months, most likely due, in part, to a lack of some secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation pathways in the model. Comparisons of CMAQ PM_2.5 predictions with observed PM_2.5 mass show mixed seasonal performance. Spring and summer show the best overall performance, while performance in the winter and fall is relatively poor, with significant overpredictions of total PM_2.5 mass in those seasons. The model biases in PM_2.5 mass cannot be explained by summing the model biases for the major inorganic ions plus carbon. Errors in the prediction of other unspeciated PM_2.5 (PM_Other) are largely to blame for the errors in total PM_2.5 mass predictions, and efforts are underway to identify the cause of these errors.     

人工湿地中污染物去除的数学模型

讨论了人工湿地三种常用的数学模型(衰减方程、一级动力学模型和生态动力学模型),并对其研究历史、发展应用、理论基础、基本形式、建立方法,及其各自的优缺点做了分析。从中可以看出,人们对人工湿地去除污染物的内在机制尚缺乏定量化的了解,目前还很难对其的设计、运行和预测做出准确的评价,因此影响了这一高效低耗的生态污水处理技术的推广和应用,而人工湿地生态动力学模型的不断完善可以从根本上解决这一问题。