Challenges and Opportunities for Creating Intelligent Hazard Alerts: The “FloodHippo” Prototype

Disasters evolving from hazards are a persistent and deadly occurrence in the United States. Despite this, hazard alerts have remained spatially vague, temporally imprecise, and lack actionable information. These deficiencies indicate a divide between the status quo and what is possible given modern environmental models, geographic information systems (GIS), and smartphone capabilities. This work describes an alternative, prototype system, “FloodHippo,” which integrates operational model outputs, cloud‐based GIS, and expanded communication channels to provide personal and interactive disaster alerts for floods. The precepts and methods underpinning FloodHippo apply equally to other disasters that evolve over space and time, presenting the opportunity for a more intelligent disaster response system. The development of such a system would not only minimize current shortcomings in disaster alerts but also improve resilience through individual action, along with community, academic, and federal cooperation.     

国家重点研发计划“水资源高效开发利用”重点专项系统化管理研究

根据《国家重点研发计划管理暂行办法》,国家重点研发计划重点专项和项目要聚焦国家重大战略、以目标为导向,从基础前沿、重大共性关键技术到应用示范进行全链条创新设计、一体化组织实施。为有效完成科技计划管理改革对专业机构项目过程管理提出的新要求,本文简要阐述专业机构对"水资源高效开发利用"重点专项管理的设想,为其他以技术研发与应用示范为主要产出形式的科研项目提供借鉴。     

Spatial variance and assessment of nitrogen dioxide pollution in major cities of Pakistan along N5-Highway

This paper discusses the findings of the first car MAX-DOAS (multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy) field campaign (300 km long) along the National Highway-05 (N5-Highway) of Pakistan conducted on 13 and 14 November, 2012. The main objective of the field campaign was to assess the spatial distribution of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) columns and corresponding concentrations along the N5-Highway from Islamabad to Lahore. Source identification of NO₂ revealed that the concentrations were higher within major cities along the highway. The highest NO₂ vertical column densities (NO₂ VCDs) were found around two major cities of Rawalpindi and Lahore. This study also presents a comparison of NO₂ VCDs measured by the ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) and car MAX-DOAS observations. The comparison revealed similar spatial distribution of the NO₂ columns with both car MAX-DOAS and satellite observations, but the car MAX-DOAS observations show much more spatial details. Maximum NO₂ VCD retrieved from car MAX-DOAS observations was up to an order of magnitude larger than the OMI observations in urban areas.     

GKS在国家水质管理信息系统中的应用

图形核心系统是开发图形应用软件的一组核心功能描述,它独立于设备和各种高级语言,自８０年代中期被ＩＳＯ正式批准为第一个计算机图形学国际标准以来,世界上各大计算机厂商纷纷推出ＧＫＳ不同级别的实现版本,广大用户也不断将自己的图形应用开发平台转向ＧＫＳ。本研究结合国家水质管理信息系统的需求,以ＧＫＳ为起点,完成了ＮＷＱＭＩＳ图形管理系统的设计与实施,有效地支持了其应用功能的实现。     

库布齐沙漠典型地区景观变化研究

Spatial pattern analysis is the core component in landscape ecology research. We analyzed the landscape pattern and dynamic process of the Kubuqi Desert by using a typical region as a study area. This study area includes four towns: ShuLinZhao, WangAiZhao, BaiNiJing and JiGeSiTai. The area of cropland, fixed sand dune, woodland, residential area and wetland increased and centralized gradually, while the area of semi-fixed sand dune, drifting sand dune, meadow and washland decreased and dispersed gradually from 1987 to 2003. On the landscape level, the patch shape tended to be regular, and the landscape pattern tended to be simple, causing the fragmentation degree, heterogeneity and diversity of the landscape to decrease. Fixed sand dune, Semi-fixed sand dune, drifting sand dune, meadow and river flood plains were the five main export classes, and residential area, cropland and wetland were the three main import classes. The classes that had a relatively large total area and large average patch area had a smaller extent of gravity center migration, whereas the classes with small total area and small average patch area had a larger extent of gravity center migration; this is because the small patches are easily influenced by human activities or natural factors. In addition, the desertification area and desertification degree reduced gradually in the study area during the period from 1987 to 2003.     

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi-stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro-scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from -1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April-September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non-firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter-dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.     

基于光谱分析的生物结皮提取研究——以毛乌素沙地为例

利用典型地物高光谱数据和TM遥感影像,对毛乌素沙地处于旺盛生长期(7-9 月)的由苔藓结皮主导的生物结皮进行了提取研究.结果表明:① 苔藓结皮在生长期具有与绿色植物相似的光谱曲线变化趋势;红边参数显示,二者除红边位置非常接近外,红边振幅、红边宽度和红边面积差异均较大;在近红外区域,苔藓结皮比绿色植物的反射率低很多;苔藓结皮无明显的553 nm反射峰;低盖度苔藓结皮(33%)、藻类结皮和植被枯落物在整个波段光谱曲线比较接近,与裸沙相比,三者反射率均较低.② 基于TM影像,用生物结皮指数(BSCI)、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、监督分类和坡度分级相结合的方法提取生物结皮,发现苔藓结皮的像元面积为0.72×10⁴ km²,占研究区总面积的6.43%.     

Human perspectives and conservation of grizzly bears in Banff National Park, Canada

Some conservation initiatives provoke intense conflict among stakeholders. The need for action, the nature of the conservation measures, and the effects of these measures on human interests may be disputed. Tools are needed to depolarize such situations, foster understanding of the perspectives of people involved, and find common ground. We used Q methodology to explore stakeholders' perspectives on conservation and management of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in Banff National Park and the Bow River watershed of Alberta, Canada. Twenty-nine stakeholders participated in the study, including local residents, scientists, agency employees, and representatives of nongovernmental conservation organizations and other interest groups. Participants rank ordered a set of statements to express their opinions on the problems of grizzly bear management (I-IV) and a second set of statements on possible solutions to the problems (A-C). Factor analysis revealed that participants held 4 distinct views of the problems: individuals associated with factor I emphasized deficiencies in goals and plans; those associated with factor II believed that problems had been exaggerated; those associated with factor III blamed institutional flaws such as disjointed management and inadequate resources; and individuals associated with factor IV blamed politicized decision making. There were 3 distinct views about the best solutions to the problems: individuals associated with factor A called for increased conservation efforts; those associated with factor B wanted reforms in decision-making processes; and individuals associated with factor C supported active landscape management. We connected people's definitions of the problem with their preferred solutions to form 5 overall problem narratives espoused by groups in the study: the problem is deficient goals and plans, the solution is to prioritize conservation efforts (planning-oriented conservation advocates); the problem is flawed institutions, the solution is to prioritize conservation efforts (institutionally-oriented conservation advocates); the problems have been exaggerated, but there is a need to improve decision-making processes (optimistic decision-process reformers); the problems have been exaggerated, but managers should more actively manage the landscape (optimistic landscape managers); and the problem is politicized decision making, solutions vary (democratizers). Although these 5 groups differed on many issues, they agreed that the population of grizzly bears is vulnerable to extirpation, human use of the area should be designed around ecological constraints, and more inclusive decision-making processes are needed. We used our results to inform a series of workshops in which stakeholders developed and agreed on new management strategies that were implemented by Parks Canada. Our research demonstrates the usefulness of Q method to illuminate people's perspectives and identify common ground in settings where conservation is contested.     

How humans shape wolf behavior in Banff and Kootenay National Parks, Canada

This paper describes the conceptualization and implementation of an agent-based model to investigate how varying levels of human presence could affect elements of wolf behavior, including highway crossings; use of areas in proximity to roads and trails; size of home ranges; activities, such as hunting, patrolling, resting, and feeding pups; and survival of individuals in Banff and Kootenay National Parks, Canada. The model consists of a wolf module as the primary component with five packs represented as cognitive agents, and grizzly bear, elk, and human modules that represent dynamic components of the environment. A set of environmental data layers was used to develop a friction model that serves as a base map representing the landscape over which wolves moved. A decision model was built to simulate the sequence of wolf activities. The model was implemented in a Java Programming Language using RePast, an agent-based modeling library. Six months of wolf activities were simulated from April 16 to October 15 (i.e., a season coherent with regard to known wolf behaviors), and calibrated with GPS data from wolf radiocollars (n = 15) deployed from 2002 to 2004. Results showed that the simulated trajectories of wolf movements were correlated with the observed trajectories (Spearman's rho 0.566, P < 0.001); other critical behaviors, such as time spent at the den and not traveling were also correlated. The simulations revealed that wolf movements and behaviors were noticeably affected by the intensity of human presence. The packs’ home ranges shrank and wolves crossed highways less frequently with increased human presence. In an extreme example, a wolf pack whose home range is traversed by a high-traffic-volume highway was extirpated due to inability to hunt successfully under a scenario wherein human presence levels were increased 10-fold. The modeling prototype developed in this study may serve as a tool to test hypotheses about human effects on wolves and on other mammals, and guide decision-makers in designing management strategies that minimize impacts on wolves and on other species functionally related to wolves in the ecosystem.