论灾害管理与经济发展的辩证关系

本文以ＡＢＣ分类法说明了减轻地震灾害的重要意义，指出了地震灾害绝对损失数额一般会随社会经济发展而逐渐增大这一客观事实。文中提出了表达地震灾害危险性、防抗灾工程投资和社会经济发展关系的一般数学模型，对灾害管理与经济发展的辩证关系进行了讨论。     

评价自然灾害健康效应及其需要的指标体系

介绍了评价自然灾害健康效应及其需要的指标体系。提出通过调查死亡、伤亡、患病等，分析其与灾区人口、特定年龄人群、职业、习惯、地理位置、时间分布等关系，来科学评价灾害的严重性，提出救灾技术措施和确定主要卫生服务内容，保护易感人群，为灾后进行建筑物结构或位置的易感性分析以及制定防灾减灾计划提供科学依据。     

人类的行为与地质灾害

全面科学地分析了人类的行为与地质灾害后，针对我国当前的实际情况，提出了几个值得深思的问题，试图提醒人们如何规范自己的行为，以达到保护环境，预防和减轻地质灾害之目的。     

神经网络及其在水库调洪演算中的应用

结合洪水灾害管理的特点建立了水库调洪演算的人工神经网络模型，阐述了其基本原理及算法，并结合某水库调洪演算实例说明了其应用。     

减缓贫水化过程的途径再议

根据贫水化的严重形势，应用水循环的原理，提出了减缓贫水化的几个主要途径，对解决城市淡水短缺有参考意义。     

自然灾害变动的集成预测模型及其应用

本文提出了以非线性回归拟合发展趋势、正弦函数逼近周期变动和马尔可夫链刻划随机扰动的集成预测模型，并应用于山东省农业自然灾害成灾面积的变动规律模拟，得到了较好的预测效果。理论和实践表明，集成预测模型优于传统的单模型预测，为预测具有复杂机制的自然灾害演变提供了一种新方法。     

支持灾害管理决策的咨询信息系统

为减少中国大城市灾害造成的损失，运用信息科学、系统科学的方法和计算机技术，建立支持灾害管理决策的咨询信息系统（ＤＭＤＳＣＩＳ）。灾害文献数据库管理系统（ＤＬＤＢＭＳ）是这一咨询信息系统的知识基础和信息来源。本文论述了“ＤＬＤＢＭＳ”和三个主要的子系统“灾害文献数据库管理系统”、“灾害事实数据库管理系统”、“中外减灾法规超文本检索系统”的作用、设计思想、构成、功能和实现方法。     

加强水资源的系统管理

我国是一个水资源十分短缺的国家，加强水资源管理刻不容缓。为此，本文结合我国水资源管理的实际状况，从思想、组织、方法、手段等方面分别论述了加强水资源系统管理的必要性和可能性。     

Quantitative Assessment of the Intertidal Environment of Kuwait I: Integrated Environmental Classification

Quantitative analysis of physical, chemical and biological data of the intertidal zone in Kuwait was undertaken to develop an integrated basis for assessing and protecting this sensitive coastal ecosystem. Cluster analyses were performed to determine the resemblance between the sampling stations based on the sediment composition, the benthic macrofauna and the physico-chemical characteristics of the intertidal sediment/water. Five distinct sub-environments were delineated within the intertidal zone of Kuwait. Each sub-environment was described in terms of number of taxa, mean density of organisms, sediment type, tidal level and dominant organisms. The physico-chemical parameters investigated were found to be unimportant in the distribution of the intertidal benthic macrofauna. On the other hand, sediment type was found to be a major factor in the overall composition of the benthic community. The benthic fauna and related characteristics of the sub-environments could be used as indicators to monitor changes in the intertidal ecosystem and as guides to protection and management of the different coasts. The approach described in this paper could also be adopted elsewhere to provide a sound basis for evaluating environmental impacts and for developing sustainable coastal management.     

NATURAL EROSION RATES AND THEIR PREDICTION IN THE IDAHO BATHOLITH1

ABSTRACT: Natural rates of surface erosion on forested granitic soils in central Idaho were measured in 40 m² bordered erosion plots over a period of four years. In addition, we measured a variety of site variables, soil properties, and summer rainstorm intensities in order to relate erosion rates to site attributes. Median winter erosion rates are approximately twice summer period rates, however mean summer rates are nearly twice winter rates because of infrequent high erosion caused by summer rainstorms. Regression equation models and regression tree models were constructed to explore relationships between erosion and factors that control erosion rates. Ground cover is the single factor that has the greatest influence on erosion rates during both summer and winter periods. Rainstorm intensity (erosivity index) strongly influences summer erosion rates, even on soils with high ground cover percentages. Few summer storms were of sufficient duration and intensity to cause rilling on the plots, and the data set was too small to elucidate differences in rill vs. interrill erosion. The regression tree models are relatively less biased than the regression equations developed, and explained 70 and 84 percent of the variability in summer and winter erosion rates, respectively.