The role of analytical science in natural resource decision making

There is a continuing debate about the proper role of analytical (positivist) science in natural resource decision making. Two diametrically opposed views are evident, arguing for and against a more extended role for scientific information. The debate takes on a different complexion if one recognizes that certain kinds of problem, referred to here as “wicked” or “trans-science” problems, may not be amenable to the analytical process. Indeed, the mistaken application of analytical methods to trans-science problems may not only be a waste of time and money but also serve to hinder policy development. Since many environmental issues are trans-science in nature, then it follows that alternatives to analytical science need to be developed. In this article, the issues involved in the debate are clarified by examining the impact of the use of analytical methods in a particular case, the spruce budworm controversy in New Brunswick. The article ends with some suggestions about a “holistic” approach to the problem.     

Establishing management standards: Selected examples of the normative approach

The importance of developing evaluative standards for judging the acceptability of impacts caused by recreation is common to all recent natural resource management frameworks. A normative model has been advanced as a useful way to conceptualize, collect, and organize empirical data representing standards for resource management issues. This article summarizes the findings from social and ecological research to illustrate the utility of the normative approach from a manager's perspective. The social data (e.g., encounter norms, proximity norms, and tolerances for launch wait times) were obtained from 13 different study sites, while the ecological data (e.g., tolerances for the amount of bare ground, size of fire rings, instream flows, and wildlife management practices) were collected at three specific sites and from one statewide survey, Findings from the social research indicated that encounter norms exist for particular types of contacts with certain types of visitors at particular places and for certain types of experiences. The recreationists reported norms for acceptable distances between individuals, encounters with others at campsites or attractions, and waiting times to run rapids. These social norm evaluation techniques were also shown to be transferable to normative evaluations of ecological impacts. The users had opinions about ecological impacts and were willing to express them. In addition, the ecological norms were of moderate to high intensity. It is argued that the usefulness of normative approaches lies in their ability to characterize group agreement about appropriate use conditions or impact levels for a particular recreation experience, thus providing the evaluative information needed to establish management standards.     

陕西省自然灾害的减灾对策

陕西地质地理条件复杂,自然灾害频繁而严重。本文概括分析了省内自然灾害的主要类型和分布特点,简要回顾了近几十年减灾工作的成绩,在此基础上着重讨论了今后减灾工作的对策和减灾目标。     

Birth of a megaproject: Political economy of flood control in bangladesh

A major flood control initiative has been launched in Bangladesh under the coordination of the World Bank. The bank's five-year Action Plan is intended to initiate a long-term investment program, the specifics of which remain to be determined. Long-term proposals under consideration include the construction of massive embankments along the great rivers of the Bangladesh delta. The wisdom of such a “structural solution” to Bangladesh's flood problems can be questioned on economic, environmental, and technical grounds. Regrettably, the decision-making process has not encouraged wide debate on these questions.     

大气环境质量回顾评价

天然气净化一厂自建厂以来，改进净化硫化氢工艺，采用液相催化反应塔和尾气的烧，并且对大气环境质量进行了回顾评价。大量的厂区环境监测数据表明：硫化氢和二氧化硫得到了有效地控制，周围的农业生态达多少了良性循环状态。     

论人与灾害关系的历史演变

本文以人地关系理论为依据，探讨了人与灾害关系在人类社会的不同发展阶段的具体表现，并分析了人类与灾害关系的演替实质。     

自然灾害基本参数研究（一）

本文在大量查阅史料的基础上，系统整理了自公元１３６８年至１９４９年的旱灾、涝灾、风雹、冻害、潮灾、山崩、地震等自然灾害年死亡人数。     

Natural fire management in National Parks

An evolving understanding of ecological processes, together with ambiguities in National Park Service policy, have led to multiple interpretations of the role of management in our large natural area National Parks. National Park Service management policies must be dynamic and responsive to changes in scientific knowledge and societal values. We propose that the principal aim of NPS resource management in natural areas is the unimpeded interaction of native ecosystem processes and structural elements. The case of the changing role of natural fire management is used as an example in developing this rationale.     

THE STATUS OF NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION: ITS NATURE,EXTENT AND CONTROL1

Nonpoint source pollution remains as the primary reason for the designation of many of the Nation's streams as “water quality limited.” This means that even with the application of technology-based effluent limitations on point sources, ambient water quality standards will not be met. This paper explores several of the reasons why nonpoint sources are so difficult to come to grips with. These reasons include: (1) the inability to expand the definition of nonpoint sources to encompass nonengineering attributes, (2) the relatively primitive state of characterizing nonpoint sources, (3) the lack of prior success in conducting programs to study and alleviate nonpoint problems, and (4) an uncertain approach to providing incentives for control practices.     

Protecting endangered species under future climate change: From single-species preservation to an anticipatory policy approach

Anthropogenic climate climate change presents a unique challenge for endangered species policy and an opportunity for policy makers to develop a more predictive and robust approach to preserving the nation's biological resources. Biological and ecological reactions to shifting climate conditions and the potential feedbacks and synergistic effects of such changes may threaten the well-being of many species, particularly of those already in jeopardy of extinction. The United States Endangered Species Act of 1973 will fail to keep pace with increasing numbers of species needing protection as long as it remains focused on protecting species individually. The actmust not be abandoned, however; it holds tremendous promise for preserving biological diversity through a more proactive, anticipatory perspective. The current Endangered Species Act should be reinforced and improved by better integration of scientific expertise into habitat and community preservation listing decisions and recovery plan devlopment. Given the uncertainties surrounding long-term environmental consequences of human activities and resource use, a longer-term perspective must be integrated into all efforts to protect our biotic resources. Under appointment from the Graduate Fellowships for Global Change administered by the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Ecducation for the US Department of Energy.