建立城市自然灾害承灾能力指标的思路探讨

本文论述了城市承灾能力的含义，分析了我国城市主要自然灾害以及承文体的类型和致灾因素，探讨了城市承灾能力指标，为城市承灾能力综合评判提供了依据．     

Against idealistic beliefs in the problem-solving capacities of integrated resource management

Integrated resource management (IRM) is currently implemented in many parts of the world. This article promotes a pragmatic interpretation and suggests that idealistic beliefs in the problem-solving capacities of IRM are not justified. Successful implementation and performance of IRM are primarily a function of the historical context into which a project is placed. A comparative analysis of several case studies in Western Canada provides evidence for this argument, and the results can be summarized in a conceptual model about integration in resource management. IRM is interpreted as a process of constructing an objective reality of integration for sectorial management decisions, and this construction involves the transformations of power structures. This article suggests several pragmatic conclusions for IRM practice.     

Wetland development trends in coastal North Carolina,USA, from 1970 to 1984

Coastal wetlands are a valuable resource to North Carolina, USA, representing important habitat for marine organisms and providing flood control areas and buffer zones from marine storms. An analysis of wetland development trends in coastal North Carolina from 1970 to 1984 was conducted using over 3000 files containing 15 years of permitting records. The total amount of coastal wetland area altered due to authorized development under the Coastal Area Management Act (CAMA), the Dredge and Fill Law, and Section 404 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act is 1740 ha. This represents nearly 2% of the salt marsh wetlands along the coast of North Carolina. The number of permits issued steadily increased during the 1980s; however, the total amount of wetland loss decreased each year. A few large projects in the early 1970s accounted for nearly 70% of all wetland area developed during the 15-year period. Nearly two-thirds of all projects involving wetland destruction involved impacts on high marsh ecosystems. Bulkheads, canals, and filling activities made up 80% of the projects requiring permits; 62% of the permits were issued to private landowners, but this group accounted for only 16% of the losses of wetland area. Utility companies, which accounted for less than 1% of the permits issued, were responsible for 46% of the permitted wetland loss during the 15-year study period. Future studies should address agriculture and forestry practices which are exempt under CAMA laws and therefore their effects on wetland alteration have not been quantified.     

DESIGN BASIS FOR EVERGLADES STORMWATER TREATMENT AREAS1

ABSTRACT: The State of Florida (1994) has adopted a plan for addressing Everglades eutrophication problems by reducing anthropogenic phosphorus loads. The plan involves implementation of Best Management Practices in agricultural watersheds and construction of regional treatment marshes (Stormwater Treatment Areas or STA's). This paper describes the development, testing, and application of a mass-balance model for sizing STA's to achieve treatment objectives. The model is calibrated and tested against peat and water-column data collected in Water Conservation Area-2A (WCA-2A), where phosphorus dynamics and eutrophication impacts have been intensively studied. The 26-year-average rate of phosphorus accretion in peat is shown to be proportional to average water-column phosphorus concentration, with a proportionality constant of 10.2 m/yr (90 percent Confidence Interval = 8.9 to 11.6 m/yr). Spatial and temporal variations in marsh water-column data suggest that drought-induced recycling of phosphorus was important during periods of low stage in WCA-2A. Maintaining wet conditions will be important to promote phosphorus removal in STA's. Sensitivity analysis of STA performance is conducted over the range of uncertainty in model parameter estimates to assess the adequacy of the model as a basis for STA design.     

灾度指数及其意义

本文分析了现行支度判别方法的不足，指出评价灾度时必须充分考虑承灾体对灾害的反应情况，并且根据判别准则的可比性原则，提出了灾度指数的概念，并以此做为灾度评价因子，旨在促进灾度评估工作的定量化、科学化，为防灾减灾服务。     

西南地区1959—1961年三年自然灾害分析

该文以丰富而翔实的资料就西南地区１９５９～１９６１年三年自然灾害，特别是旱灾的灾情、灾情特点、灾害损失、灾害原因及其经验教训进行了论述．     

解放前中国饥民食谱考

本文通过大量查阅灾害史料，对解放前灾民的食物进行了归类总结，其中有：植物类、动物类、土石类及其它，从一个方面反映了社会的落后与不平等．     

Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model

Land-use change models are important tools for integrated environmental management. Through scenario analysis they can help to identify near-future critical locations in the face of environmental change. A dynamic, spatially explicit, land-use change model is presented for the regional scale: CLUE-S. The model is specifically developed for the analysis of land use in small regions (e.g., a watershed or province) at a fine spatial resolution. The model structure is based on systems theory to allow the integrated analysis of land-use change in relation to socio-economic and biophysical driving factors. The model explicitly addresses the hierarchical organization of land use systems, spatial connectivity between locations and stability. Stability is incorporated by a set of variables that define the relative elasticity of the actual land-use type to conversion. The user can specify these settings based on expert knowledge or survey data. Two applications of the model in the Philippines and Malaysia are used to illustrate the functioning of the model and its validation.     

构造运动与中国沿岸平原的地质灾害

中国海岸穿过构造沉降带和隆起带，沉降带及隆起带断陷盆地的持续下降吸引了源远流长的大河在此人海，而隆起带内入海的河流多为近源小河，从而引起河流泥沙沿岸分配的不均和海岸沉积物的差异。沉降带内每公里海岸线接受的沉积物是隆起带的数十倍，且以砂质沉积物为主．隆起带河流泥沙来量少．而且砂质沉积物占了压倒的优势．河流泥沙沿岸分配的不均决定了中国沙质和淤泥质海岸的基本类型和分布格局、沉降带和隆起带松散沉积层的厚度和结构，山此产生了中国沿岸与第四纪沉积层有关的灾害和环境问题的有规律的分布。地面沉降主要分布于沉降带内，而地下海水入侵多出现在依赖地下水的隆起带内，底辟构造、浅层天然气往往在大河三角洲构成灾害和潜在的地质灾害．沉降带和隆起带断陷盆地内的海岸低地通常是海平面上升的主要脆弱地区．此外，丰富的河流泥沙使中国海岸对全球海平面上升的响应也不相同，如海岸湿地的再生和海岸侵蚀原因的复杂性等．     

Fostering sustainable small-scale investments: lessons from experience and ideas for intervention and innovation

This article presents lessons from experience pertinent to implementing small-scale natural resource and related investment projects in developing countries. It outlines ideas for intervention and innovation to foster such investments. Particular emphasis is placed on private-sector participation in these investments. Following a brief presentation of the economic development and other arguments that support intervention and innovation in support of such small-scale natural resource investments, the article discusses many of the lessons learned from experience. These lessons reinforce those touched upon in the investment-specific discussions in the previous articles. The experience and associated lessons that are examined include experiences in both developing and developed countries and encompass not just lessons from natural resource investments, but also small-scale investments in other sectors. Financing and other innovations which facilitate meeting the challenges are drawn from relevant experience where barriers to investment have been surmounted. Options for programme and project interventions to increase market penetration of small-scale investments and achieve the associated development linkages and synergies are suggested. These suggestions are aimed especially at governments and bilateral and multilateral development finance and development assistance entities. It is those players who might support such interventions in collaboration with local financial institutions and other market players.