地震专项保险与震情指数预报

本文论证了我国现行保险制度处理震灾保险上的弊端,建议设置震灾专项保险,为此拟定了特殊的承保—理赔准则;分析了地震预报难以发布的原因,从探究地震和保险内在的协同与制约关系中试图建立一种以动态保险费率作为各地震情指数的隐含预报模式。     

农业灾情与抗灾能力的定量指标探讨

本文就农业灾情及抗灾能力定量指标进行了初步探讨,提出了度量农业灾情及抗灾能力的指标体系。     

太阳质子耀斑与降雨指数R间的关系

长江中下游和华北地区的降雨指数R与峰值质子(>10mev)流量≥100pfu质子耀斑呈正相关关系。约有81.3%和76.1%的大质子耀斑(峰值质子流量≥100pfu)事件,在其发生后的第一个月内,长江中下游和华北地区的雨量将明显地增加,如果雨量过大,还容易造成洪水灾害。对于1991年初夏发生的二次特大洪水过程,如果天气预报时,考虑到日面连续爆发大质子耀斑这一天文因素,有可能提前24～30天预报这两次大水,从而做到及早防范。大质子耀斑后,西太平洋副高的西伸北移和极涡南移造成的冷空气南下,是长江中下游和华北地区雨量明显增加的重要原因之一,在夏季汛期,很可能是洪水灾害的主要原因。     

突变级数法在区域生态系统健康评价中的应用

目前在多目标综合评价方面有层次分析、因子分析、模糊评判等诸多方法．但有些方法对权重的确定主观性较大或计算过程过于复杂。介绍了突变理论用于多准则决策问题的基本思想和步骤，该法不需对评价指标赋以权重。它只考虑指标的相对重要性。避免了直接使用难于确定且主观性较大的“权重”概念。因而显得简易。同时．突变级数是一种多维模糊隶属函数。用它来计算通常模糊数学的多目标评价决策问题。就更适宜和更准确。以广东省生态系统健康评价为实例．引用相关文献中的数据构建了适用于突变级数法的层次结构指标体系．运用突变理论中的归一公式。计算了广东省生态系统的健康得分，发现健康排名与实际情况较为符合．证明了该方法的可行性。文章同时使用了加权平均法对指标体系进行计算，通过比较。发现原文献的结果与本文采用的两种方法的评价结果基本一致。尤其是健康程度较好和较坏的区域。实例表明．突变级数法较为简便、快捷和可靠。这为解决区域多目标评价问题提供了一种新的思路。     

Research on Indicator System of Regional Eco-efficiency: A Case Study of Chengyang District

Abstract

Eco-efficiency is a valuable tool for managing and solving issues involving resource consumption and pollution emission in current production processes. Despite the popularity of the term “eco-efficiency” in business, limited attention has been paid to measuring and reporting regional eco-efficiency for local government policy makers. Based on the concept and method of eco-efficiency, an indicator system of regional eco-efficiency is established in this study. The indicator system comprises 22 indicators, which are divided in to three categories including socio-economic development, resources consumption, environmental pressure. As a promising statistical technique, principle component analysis is used to set the weight of indicators which attempts to calculate the eco-efficiency indices of Qingdao's Chengyang District. The results show that the eco-efficiency of Chengyang District has clearly improved 35.1% with small fluctuation from 1995 to 2003. Socio-economic development index and resources consumption index also represent obvious increasing trends. The correlation coefficient between soci-economic development index and resources consumption index is 0.979, which means the social progress and economic growth of Chengyang District depend on an extravagant consumption of resources. The environmental pressure index in- creased slowly before 1997 and declined gradually after 1997, due to more attention being paid to environmental protection by local government in recent years. Chengyang District still keeps the traditional economic development mode with a high consumption and high production, so the emphases of future development should put on improving the improving the efficient use of natural resources and promoting environmental management sustainability. The results show that the indicators system of regional eco-efficiency is a promising method to quantitatively evaluate resources and environmental efficiency and provide an effective decision-making support for local governments.     

Finite Element Analysis of Knee Injury Risks in Car-to-Pedestrian Impacts

In vehicle–pedestrian collisions, lower extremities of pedestrians are frequently injured by vehicle front structures. In this study, a finite element (FE) model of THUMS (total human model for safety) was modified in order to assess injuries to a pedestrian lower extremity. Dynamic impact responses of the knee joint of the FE model were validated on the basis of data from the literature. Since in real-world accidents, the vehicle bumper can impact the lower extremities in various situations, the relations between lower extremity injury risk and impact conditions, such as between impact location, angle, and impactor stiffness, were analyzed. The FE simulation demonstrated that the motion of the lower extremity may be classified into a contact effect of the impactor and an inertia effect from a thigh or leg. In the contact phase, the stress of the bone is high in the area contacted by the impactor, which can cause fracture. Thus, in this phase the impactor stiffness affects the fracture risk of bone. In the inertia phase, the behavior of the lower extremity depends on the impact locations and angles, and the knee ligament forces become high according to the lower extremity behavior. The force of the collateral ligament is high compared with other knee ligaments, due to knee valgus motions in vehicle-pedestrian collisions.     

Scenarios of Future Climate and Land-Management Effects on Carbon Stocks in Northern Patagonian Shrublands

We analyzed the possible effects of grazing management and future climate change on carbon (C) stocks in soils of northern Patagonian shrublands. To this aim, we coupled the outputs of three (HadCM3, CSIRO Mk2, and CCSR/NIES) global climate models to the CENTURY (v5.3) model of terrestrial C balance. The CENTURY model was initialized with long-term field data on local biome physiognomy, seasonal phenologic trends, and prevailing land-management systems and was validated with recent sequences of 1-km Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MODIS-Terra) images and soil C data. In the tested scenarios, the predicted climate changes would result in increased total C in soil organic matter (SOMTC). Maximum SOMTC under changed climate forcing would not differ significantly from that expected under baseline conditions (8 kg m⁻²). A decrease in grazing intensity would result in SOMTC increases of 11% to 12% even if climate changes did not occur. Climate change would account for SOMTC increases of 5% to 6%.     

Occupational Safety Culture Index (OSCI)——measuring the community and employees awareness,attitude and knowledge towards workplace safety and health in Hong Kong SAR

Promoting occupational safety and health in Hong Kong,Special Administrative Region of China is an important and ongoing mission. As the major organization with statutory responsibilities,the Occupational Safety and Health Council understand the importance to strengthen and cultivate our safety culture. It is widely believed that numbers of occupational related diseases and injuries could be prevented with the improvement of the awareness and attitudes of the employees and the public. Therefore,a comprehensive and in-depth study to monitor the occupational health and safety level and status of the community and working population is needed. Objectives: Our Council has developed the Occupational Safety Culture Index ( OSCI) to measure the current level of community and workplace safety and health awareness,knowledge and attitude. Benchmarking measures of the key safety performance indicators are to be derived thereof. Methods: A territory-wide random telephone survey was conducted to assess the community and employees’awareness,attitude and knowledge in 2008. A structured questionnaire was designed with the content validity and reliability assessed before the survey administration. A series of quality control approaches were also applied to assure the quality of the fieldwork and the reliability of the data. Results: 1,531 eligible participants’data were collected and computed into 2 types of composite indices,Occupational Safety Culture Index ( Community) ( OSCIC) and Occupational Safety Culture Index (Workplace) (OSCIW) . With the maximum score of index at 100,the overall score of OSCIC is 66. 9 and the OSCIW is 61. 3 in Hong Kong. Achievements: OSCI served as an effective management tool to measure the safety culture in Hong Kong. With a representative sample and high quality study control and validated assessment approaches,the OSCI and the sub-indices are reliable indicators to assess the effectiveness of safety culture enhancement strategy and the OSH intervention measures.     

化工过程中毒事故风险的模糊综合评估

影响化工过程中毒事故风险性的不确定因素较多,其风险具有相对性且大部分因素具有模糊性的特点。为此,笔者建立了化工过程多级多指标中毒事故风险评估指标体系,根据模糊优选理论,提出了中毒事故风险的模糊综合评估模型,运用模糊层次分析法确定各指标权重,结合有关统计数据及工厂实际,对化工过程潜在的中毒事故风险性进行模糊综合评估,所获结果为化工过程中毒事故的综合防治提供了理论依据     

Distribution of Diatoms in a Forested Stream Containing a Series of Interconnected Lakes

We explored the spatial variation in diatom communities withinthe Turkey Lakes Watershed (TLW). The TLW is a single watershed in an old growth sugar maple forest that contains an alternatingseries of stream and lake embayments. Near the outlet of each lake, we sampled pools and riffles to determine abundance and diversity of diatom communities along this hydrologic system. Diatom diversity, measured by Shannon-Weaver Index, richness andevenness, increased steadily downstream before eventually decreasing near the watershed outlet. Canonical CorrespondenceAnalysis indicated that diatom genera were correlated with streamchemistry. Upper reaches were the least productive, characterizedby lower pH (<7), higher N:P (113:1 to 124:1, dominated by complex forms of N), and high mean relative abundances of Eunotia spp., Tabellaria spp., and Pinnularia spp. Middle and lower reaches were more productive, characterized byhigher pH (>7), lower N:P (71:1 to 90:1, dominated by simple forms of N, e.g., nitrate-N), and high mean relative abundances of Cymbella spp. and Brachysira spp. Achnanthesminutissima (Kutz.) Hustedt, the most abundant species, and Navicula spp., Nitzschia spp., Gomphonema spp., and Frustrulia spp. were represented at all stream sites. Thisstudy revealed that within the TLW, a hydrologic system of the same stream order, the diatom community was influenced by a nutrient gradient, where the stream and its intervening lakes contributed to a shift from acidic, inorganic N-poor upper reaches to a circum-neutral, inorganic N-richer outlet. By imparting genera-specific stresses, stream flow (i.e. pools vs. riffles) further shaped the diatom community.