太湖流域农户环境友好型技术采纳行为及其环境和经济效应评价——以测土配方施肥技术为例

论文基于太湖流域上游地区221 户水稻生产农户调查数据,利用Probit 模型分析了农户采纳测土配方施肥技术的影响因素,然后构建投入需求和产出供给方程,评价了测土配方施肥技术采纳的环境和经济效应。研究表明,平均年龄越小、家庭耐用资产状况越好以及上一年与农技推广人员接触次数越多的农户,越倾向于选择测土配方施肥技术,而受教育年限较少或较多的农户都不愿意选择该技术。测土配方施肥技术确实能够起到降低化肥施用量和提高水稻产量的双重作用,控制其他条件,测土配方施肥技术采用率每增加1%,化肥施用量降低0.09%(0.45 kg/hm²),而水稻单产提高0.04%(2.91 kg/hm²)。若研究区域实现测土配方施肥全面推广应用,将可进一步减少化肥用量34.91 kg/hm²,同时提高水稻产量223.98 kg/hm²,具有较可观的环境和经济效应。但是测土配方施肥技术的实际推广进程缓慢,项目管理实施也不够规范,为此,有必要加大测土配方施肥技术研究投入,加强对技术的宣传和培训工作,同时结合示范户的榜样作用,以点带面促进该技术的深入推广和规范实施。     

苏北沿海某滩涂区土壤重金属含量及其污染评价

为揭示沿海滩涂快速发展区土壤重金属的污染风险状况,分别采用潜在生态风险指数法与内梅罗综合污染指数法,对苏北沿海某滩涂区土壤重金属(Pb、Cr、Cd、Hg和As)含量、污染风险及其空间格局进行了评价.结果表明:目前该滩涂区土壤环境质量总体良好,土壤重金属呈轻度潜在生态风险和警戒级综合污染水平,其趋势均为工业园区>居民区>镇郊农田>围垦滩涂;2种评价方法的研究结果均表明,工业发展和城镇化建设是驱动土壤重金属污染风险升高的主因,强烈的人类活动加速了土壤重金属累积,宜采用优化产业布局、加强监测监控和强化源头防治以防控和削减该区土壤重金属危害.      

基于环境一号卫星的太湖流域地表温度与地表类型的关系分析

利用我国新发射的环境一号小卫星数据,以2010年3月26日环境一号卫星的红外波段为例,尝试根据同步MODIS数据反演大气水汽含量参数,采用Jimenez-Munoz和Sobrino的普适性单通道算法反演地表温度,经MODIS地表温度产品验证,地表温度反演精度满足要求. 将人工目视解译的2009年太湖流域土地利用、地表温度和归一化植被指数作相关性分析. 结果表明:当林地和农田、草地植被指数相同时,林地的地表温度比农田和草地低,因此林地比农田和草地的调节温度效果好,在城市中增加林地的面积,对缓解城市热岛效应的作用最大.      

流域内污染负荷分布的评价模型研究 ——以密云县蛇鱼川小流域为例

在引入欧洲学者建立的潜在非点源污染指数模型PNPI的基础上,根据我国的社会经济条件和流域状况对其进行了土地利用类型扩展、土地利用类型比对和土壤渗透性等级划分等3个重要改进,建立了一个评价流域污染负荷分布的潜在污染指数模型PPI(Potential Pollution Index),并在北京市密云水库流域典型的3个小流域——曹家路、黄土坎和蛇鱼川进行了初步应用和分析验证.研究表明,改进后的PPI模型能够综合考虑养殖场、旅游区等各种污染源对河流水质的潜在污染影响,可用其评价流域内各种污染源对河流造成的潜在污染的空间分布.     

An assessment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement’s economic and environmental impacts on China

Recently, China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (Korea) are conducting a government-commissioned feasibility study on the Free Trade Agreement among the three countries (CJKFTA) to form a regional free trade zone in East Asia. Considering that freer trade can cause unexpected impact on domestic environment, there is a need to evaluate the environmental impact of such a trade policy. This move should be made to help negotiators understand and pay more attention to environmental issues during CJKFTA negotiations, and to help lobby with the government to carry out appropriate policy instruments for adaptation or mitigation. Following the Chain Reaction Assessment Method that integrates and links the elements of trade, production, and environment, the present research aims to quantitatively assess CJKFTA’s possible impact on China’s environment. This is done by estimating the variations of China’s major conventional pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emission in two policy scenarios to represent CJKFTA’s scale and composition effects on China’s environment. Estimating the variations is based on a static Computable General Equilibrium model, working with Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) 7 database and China’s energy-environment statistics. Based on these assessments, CJKFTA is predicted to lead to notable environmental impact, including increased emissions of agricultural total nitrogen, agricultural total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, and GHGs. On the other hand, decreased emissions of industrial SO₂ and dust are also expected to happen. Suitable policies need to be made to combat negative effects and amplify positive ones, while aiming at a more sustainable regional freer trade system.     

事故经济损失评估理论与方法研究

简要分析了国内外事故损失评估理论与方法的共同特点及问题 ,对事故经济损失的概念和计算范围进行了比较清晰的界定 ,给出了新的事故经济损失分类方法 ,在此基础上提出了新的事故经济损失评估理论 ,建立了评估模型 ,明确了从企业角度和国家角度评估事故经济损失的方法     

A Comprehensive Approach to Identifying Monitoring Priorities of Small Landbirds on Military Installations

Military installations provide important native habitat for songbirds, including many species that have experienced population declines in recent decades. As part of the Land Condition Trend Analysis (LCTA) program to monitor animal populations on military lands, we surveyed small (<250 g) breeding landbirds on 60 permanent plots on the Fort Riley Military Installation in northeastern Kansas from 1991 to 2002. During this period, species richness averaged 39.0 species (SE 0.9)/year and mean species richness per plot ranged from 3.6 species (SE=0.2)/plot (1999) to 7.5 species (SE=0.3)/plot (1992). Turnover (the appearance and disappearance of species on all plots from one year to the next) ranged from 5 species (2000–2001) to 16 species (1992–1993) and was driven primarily by turnover of woodland species. We developed an index of relative difference (C) to evaluate relative trends of local populations and found that 25 species declined, 15 species increased, and 7 did not change. Based on migration assemblages, more resident species (6 of 10) and more short-distant migrants (9 of 12) decreased than long-distance migrants (10 vs. 11). Our analysis of major vegetation communities on plots showed few changes in the quantity of habitats (grassland vs. woodlands) during the study. Our results indicate that Fort Riley provides important habitats for many landbirds, particularly those that require grasslands for breeding. Several species exhibited local declines when compared to the regional Breeding Bird Survey routes. We offer an approach that evaluates population changes of small landbirds and provides objective inputs for conservation directives. These can be adopted easily for use on military installations (that use LCTA), parks, and wildlife refuges that have data from annual breeding bird surveys.     

PLR事故隐患分级法在上海市化工企业中的应用

PLR事故隐患分级法针对火灾、爆炸、毒物泄漏重大事故类型 ,根据事故隐患评价的基本原理 ,结合上海市事故发生及隐患普查现状 ,提出了上海市“重大事故隐患”的定义和辨识方法 ,确定了事故隐患易发性(P)、事故导致损失程度 (L)和事故后果影响范围 (R0 .5)三项评价指标 ,并将P ,L ,R三项指标组合成“PLR事故隐患分级评价表” ,由PLR事故隐患分级评价表得出事故隐患分级结果。新方法通过在上海市典型化工企业的试点应用 ,验证了PLR事故隐患分级法在化工企业中的可操作性和有效性 ,为上海市重大事故隐患的辨识、评价和整改工作提供了科学的管理方法     

Relationship between fluorine in drinking water and dental health of residents in some large cities in China

In this project, the relationship between fluorine content in drinking water and dental health of residents in some large cities in China was evaluated. The concentration of fluorine in tap water and in urine of local subjects of 28 cities and 4 high fluorine villages in China shows a strong positive correlation (r(2)=0.96, S.E.=0.9881). Our studies indicate that drinking water is the most important source of fluorine intake for Chinese people, and in more than 90% of urban cities, fluorine concentrations in drinking water are below levels recommended by the WHO (approximately 0.5-1.0 mg/l). A 1995 investigation by The National Committee on Oral Health of China (NCOH) shows the relationship between average number of decayed, missing and filled teeth (DMFT) of urban residents and fluorine concentration in drinking water to be negatively correlated but not forming a good linear relationship. Our results, together with the previous study, suggest that: (1) dental caries of the study population can be reduced by drinking water fluoridation and that (2) other factors such as economic level, weather, lifestyle, food habits, living condition, etc., of a city can also affect the incidence of dental caries that cannot be predicted by fluoridation alone. Research on the relation between index of fluorosis (IF) and the fluorine concentration in drinking water for the four high fluorine villages showed that the recommended concentration of fluorine in drinking water can protect from dental fluorosis.     

城市重大危险源安全规划方法及程序研究

城市重大危险源是影响城市安全水平的一个重要因素,对城市重大危险源的规划和整治是提高城市安全水平的一个重要途径.本文在"十五"国家科技攻关计划课题"城市公共安全规划与应急预案编制及其关键技术研究"第一专题"城市公共安全规划技术、方法与程序研究"的研究成果基础上,提出了城市重大危险源安全规划的一般性方法和技术要点,以期为城市重大危险源安全规划的编制提供技术指导.