PLR事故隐患分级法在上海市化工企业中的应用

PLR事故隐患分级法针对火灾、爆炸、毒物泄漏重大事故类型 ,根据事故隐患评价的基本原理 ,结合上海市事故发生及隐患普查现状 ,提出了上海市“重大事故隐患”的定义和辨识方法 ,确定了事故隐患易发性(P)、事故导致损失程度 (L)和事故后果影响范围 (R0 .5)三项评价指标 ,并将P ,L ,R三项指标组合成“PLR事故隐患分级评价表” ,由PLR事故隐患分级评价表得出事故隐患分级结果。新方法通过在上海市典型化工企业的试点应用 ,验证了PLR事故隐患分级法在化工企业中的可操作性和有效性 ,为上海市重大事故隐患的辨识、评价和整改工作提供了科学的管理方法     

Relationship between fluorine in drinking water and dental health of residents in some large cities in China

In this project, the relationship between fluorine content in drinking water and dental health of residents in some large cities in China was evaluated. The concentration of fluorine in tap water and in urine of local subjects of 28 cities and 4 high fluorine villages in China shows a strong positive correlation (r(2)=0.96, S.E.=0.9881). Our studies indicate that drinking water is the most important source of fluorine intake for Chinese people, and in more than 90% of urban cities, fluorine concentrations in drinking water are below levels recommended by the WHO (approximately 0.5-1.0 mg/l). A 1995 investigation by The National Committee on Oral Health of China (NCOH) shows the relationship between average number of decayed, missing and filled teeth (DMFT) of urban residents and fluorine concentration in drinking water to be negatively correlated but not forming a good linear relationship. Our results, together with the previous study, suggest that: (1) dental caries of the study population can be reduced by drinking water fluoridation and that (2) other factors such as economic level, weather, lifestyle, food habits, living condition, etc., of a city can also affect the incidence of dental caries that cannot be predicted by fluoridation alone. Research on the relation between index of fluorosis (IF) and the fluorine concentration in drinking water for the four high fluorine villages showed that the recommended concentration of fluorine in drinking water can protect from dental fluorosis.     

城市重大危险源安全规划方法及程序研究

城市重大危险源是影响城市安全水平的一个重要因素,对城市重大危险源的规划和整治是提高城市安全水平的一个重要途径.本文在"十五"国家科技攻关计划课题"城市公共安全规划与应急预案编制及其关键技术研究"第一专题"城市公共安全规划技术、方法与程序研究"的研究成果基础上,提出了城市重大危险源安全规划的一般性方法和技术要点,以期为城市重大危险源安全规划的编制提供技术指导.     

生态环境潜在破坏研究综述

生态环境的潜在破坏是指在各种因素条件下，有可能产生的破坏。通过对生态环境的潜在破坏研究，可以在一定程度上进行积极预防，以减少损失。本文对生态环境潜在破坏从以下几方面进行研究：指标选取方法、指标权重的确定方法、潜在破坏程度的确定方法及等级划分、制图研究以及其他方面。     

Integrating Bioassessment and Ecological Risk Assessment: An Approach to Developing Numerical Water-Quality Criteria

Bioassessment is used worldwide to monitor aquatic health but is infrequently used with risk-assessment objectives, such as supporting the development of defensible, numerical water-quality criteria. To this end, we present a generalized approach for detecting potential ecological thresholds using assemblage-level attributes and a multimetric index (Index of Biological Integrity—IBI) as endpoints in response to numerical changes in water quality. To illustrate the approach, we used existing macroinvertebrate and surface-water total phosphorus (TP) datasets from an observed P gradient and a P-dosing experiment in wetlands of the south Florida coastal plain nutrient ecoregion. Ten assemblage attributes were identified as potential metrics using the observational data, and five were validated in the experiment. These five core metrics were subjected individually and as an aggregated Nutrient–IBI to nonparametric changepoint analysis (nCPA) to estimate cumulative probabilities of a threshold response to TP. Threshold responses were evident for all metrics and the IBI, and were repeatable through time. Results from the observed gradient indicated that a threshold was 50% probable between 12.6 and 19.4 g/L TP for individual metrics and 14.8 g/L TP for the IBI. Results from the P-dosing experiment revealed 50% probability of a response between 11.2 and 13.0 g/L TP for the metrics and 12.3 g/L TP for the IBI. Uncertainty analysis indicated a low (typically 5%) probability that an IBI threshold occurred at 10 g/L TP, while there was 95% certainty that the threshold was 17 g/L TP. The weight-of-evidence produced from these analyses implies that a TP concentration > 12–15 g/L is likely to cause degradation of macroinvertebrate assemblage structure and function, a reflection of biological integrity, in the study area. This finding may assist in the development of a numerical water-quality criterion for TP in this ecoregion, and illustrates the utility of bioassessment to environmental decision-making.     

矿井(煤矿)通风系统安全度

分析了矿井（煤矿）通风系统的安全性,提出了评价矿井通风系统安全性的指标,确定了矿井通风系统安全性等级。     

基于SPEI的西南地区近53 a干旱时空特征分析

论文基于标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）,统计分析西南地区128 个测站1960-2012 年的气象数据,从干旱年际变化趋势、四季变化趋势、干旱强度、干旱事件频次、干旱频率以及与ENSO的关系,对西南地区近半个世纪的干旱时空特征进行了分析。结果表明：①西南地区及子区域近53 a 来呈干旱化趋势,21 世纪初干旱发生最频繁,干旱强度、极端干旱及中等干旱的频次均呈增加趋势;②四季大部分区域呈干旱化趋势,以秋季最为突出;③春季,干旱发生频率最高且集中在横断山地、四川盆地东部和云贵高原中部,夏季,横断山地北部、若尔盖高原和广西丘陵西北部易发生干旱,秋季,云贵高原、广西丘陵及四川盆地部分区域干旱频率较高,冬季,干旱易发区集中在若尔盖高原、四川盆地西南部一线;④各区域四季的干旱指数与ENSO指数相关性不同,并且ENSO事件强度与四川盆地和横断山地的SPEI 在年变化趋势方面存在明显负相关,与其他区域呈正相关。此外,西南地区在厄尔尼诺年和拉尼娜年都会出现干旱,但前者爆发干旱灾害的概率比后者高。而且各区域存在差异,四川盆地、若尔盖高原在厄尔尼诺年易发生干旱,而云贵高原在拉尼娜年发生频率较高,广西丘陵、横断山地没有明显规律和特征。     

雅安市环境空气质量时空动态变化及改善途径分析

根据雅安市4个空气自动站监测数据,按照《环境空气质量标准》(GB3095-2012)中的二级标准,采用综合污染指数法分析了雅安市2009~2013年环境空气质量时空动态变化趋势及其影响因素。结果表明:从年际变化看,PM1 0和SO 2浓度呈下降趋势,NO2浓度在2013年略有上升;年内变化显示,各污染物浓度季节变化明显,冬季污染最严重,污染程度由高到低的顺序为冬季、秋季、春季、夏季;空间变化显示,SO2浓度存在一定的空间差异性,各监测点位SO 2浓度随年限均呈下降趋势。NO 2和PM 10浓度空间分布差异明显。雅安空气环境综合污染指数呈下降趋势,空气污染程度得到了明显缓解,空气质量逐渐改善,并在上述研究基础上,提出了环境空气质量的改善途径。     

大纵湖大型底栖动物群落结构与水质生物学评价

2013年1月中旬对大纵湖5个采样点的大型底栖动物进行调查,共采集底栖动物29种,其中DZ1的优势种为苏氏尾鳃蚓(Branchiura sowerbyi);其他各点的优势种为长角涵螺(Alocinma longicornis)。采用理化分析、Shannon-Wiener指数、Margalef指数、BPI指数对各点水质进行了综合评价。结果表明:DZ4属于β-中污染水质,其他各点属于α-中污染水质;对主要的环境因子与底栖动物密度进行相关性分析,发现DO与底栖动物群落未显著相关,NH3-N、NO-3-N、CODMn等因子更能代表水体的污染水平和营养状态,且随着营养状态的升高,耐污种类的颤蚓类数量呈现出增高趋势;寡毛类、蛭类、摇蚊幼虫、水生昆虫和软体动物5者之间除了寡毛类和蛭类存在极显著正相关性之外,其他无显著相关性。     

基于熵权法和聚类分析法的成都市空气质量综合评价

传统方法在评价大气环境质量中存在因素较为单一等缺点,文章综合考虑多评价单元的多种指标,运用熵权系数法对成都市各区域AQI进行计算,以区域AQI年均值,区域年污染天数两个评价参数,构建成都市现阶段各区域空气质量状况的指标体系。同时利用聚类分析方法对成都市21个区县,根据空气质量指数AQI日均值进行结果验证。研究结果表明:郫县,青白江区和新都区综合评价等级最高,均在8.5以上,体现出这三个区域空气质量状况较差,综合评价等级较低的都江堰和蒲江县AQI年均值也较低,污染天数很少,其余区域的评分和其AQI以及污染天数均相符合,可以得出该综合评价模型可以很好的很客观的反映出各区域的空气质量状况。聚类分析呈现出较好的聚类效果,整个成都市各区域空气质量均值分布分为四大区域,较符合实际结果,可以为其他城市的空气质量综合评价提供一定的参考。