Quantifying ecological thresholds from response surfaces

Ecological thresholds are abrupt changes of ecological state. While an ecological threshold is a widely accepted concept, most empirical methods detect them in time or across geographic space. Although useful, these approaches do not quantify the direct drivers of threshold response. Causal understanding of thresholds detected empirically requires their investigation in a multi-factor domain containing the direct drivers (often referred to as state space). Here, we present an approach to quantify thresholds from response surfaces modeled empirically in state space. We present two indices of shape attributes measured from response surfaces. The response surfaces are built using a regression method in state space. The indices are threshold strength (T) and diagonality (D). We use 48 simulated response surfaces of different shapes to test the efficacy of the indices in 3D. Our results show that T is sensitive to the steepness of the transition from one state to the next, with various forms of abrupt, centralized thresholds yielding the highest values among the simulated surfaces. D represents the orientation of the response surface or the simultaneous influence of more than one predictor in eliciting the response gradient. Strongly diagonal surfaces have the most diagonal surface area demonstrated by sharply undulating diagonal surfaces. Given that the success of T and D requires a regression method to accurately capture any shape of complex data structure, we also test the accuracy of empirical regression methods known to be tractable with complex data. We test classification and regression trees (CART), Random Forest, and non-parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) for binary and continuous responses. We use the 48 simulated response surfaces to test the methods, and we find that prediction accuracy depends on both the T and D of the simulated data for each method. We choose the most accurate method among those we test for capturing any shape of response surface from real data, NPMR. Finally, we use NPMR to build response surfaces and quantify T and D from real ecological data sets. We demonstrate how measuring threshold strength and diagonality from multi-factor response surfaces can advance ecology.     

环境工艺方法论研究——替代法

替代法是重要的科学研究方法,被广泛用于环境工艺的研发和革新过程中。本文论述了环境工艺替代法的理论含义和实际应用,并讨论其哲学内涵。     

基于SPEI的西南地区近53 a干旱时空特征分析

论文基于标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）,统计分析西南地区128 个测站1960-2012 年的气象数据,从干旱年际变化趋势、四季变化趋势、干旱强度、干旱事件频次、干旱频率以及与ENSO的关系,对西南地区近半个世纪的干旱时空特征进行了分析。结果表明：①西南地区及子区域近53 a 来呈干旱化趋势,21 世纪初干旱发生最频繁,干旱强度、极端干旱及中等干旱的频次均呈增加趋势;②四季大部分区域呈干旱化趋势,以秋季最为突出;③春季,干旱发生频率最高且集中在横断山地、四川盆地东部和云贵高原中部,夏季,横断山地北部、若尔盖高原和广西丘陵西北部易发生干旱,秋季,云贵高原、广西丘陵及四川盆地部分区域干旱频率较高,冬季,干旱易发区集中在若尔盖高原、四川盆地西南部一线;④各区域四季的干旱指数与ENSO指数相关性不同,并且ENSO事件强度与四川盆地和横断山地的SPEI 在年变化趋势方面存在明显负相关,与其他区域呈正相关。此外,西南地区在厄尔尼诺年和拉尼娜年都会出现干旱,但前者爆发干旱灾害的概率比后者高。而且各区域存在差异,四川盆地、若尔盖高原在厄尔尼诺年易发生干旱,而云贵高原在拉尼娜年发生频率较高,广西丘陵、横断山地没有明显规律和特征。     

大纵湖大型底栖动物群落结构与水质生物学评价

2013年1月中旬对大纵湖5个采样点的大型底栖动物进行调查,共采集底栖动物29种,其中DZ1的优势种为苏氏尾鳃蚓(Branchiura sowerbyi);其他各点的优势种为长角涵螺(Alocinma longicornis)。采用理化分析、Shannon-Wiener指数、Margalef指数、BPI指数对各点水质进行了综合评价。结果表明:DZ4属于β-中污染水质,其他各点属于α-中污染水质;对主要的环境因子与底栖动物密度进行相关性分析,发现DO与底栖动物群落未显著相关,NH3-N、NO-3-N、CODMn等因子更能代表水体的污染水平和营养状态,且随着营养状态的升高,耐污种类的颤蚓类数量呈现出增高趋势;寡毛类、蛭类、摇蚊幼虫、水生昆虫和软体动物5者之间除了寡毛类和蛭类存在极显著正相关性之外,其他无显著相关性。     

雅安市环境空气质量时空动态变化及改善途径分析

根据雅安市4个空气自动站监测数据,按照《环境空气质量标准》(GB3095-2012)中的二级标准,采用综合污染指数法分析了雅安市2009~2013年环境空气质量时空动态变化趋势及其影响因素。结果表明:从年际变化看,PM1 0和SO 2浓度呈下降趋势,NO2浓度在2013年略有上升;年内变化显示,各污染物浓度季节变化明显,冬季污染最严重,污染程度由高到低的顺序为冬季、秋季、春季、夏季;空间变化显示,SO2浓度存在一定的空间差异性,各监测点位SO 2浓度随年限均呈下降趋势。NO 2和PM 10浓度空间分布差异明显。雅安空气环境综合污染指数呈下降趋势,空气污染程度得到了明显缓解,空气质量逐渐改善,并在上述研究基础上,提出了环境空气质量的改善途径。     

Computer Professionals and Carpal Tunnel Syndrome (CTS)

Carpal Tunnel Syndrome (CTS) is an important problem among computer professionals. Hence the prevalence of CTS among computer professionals and risk factors were studied. 648 subjects were selected from 4,276 computer professionals from 21 companies with a simple random sampling method. CTS was diagnosed based on clinical features.

The prevalence of CTS was found to be 13.1% (95% CI 10.5–15.7%). Subjects with over 8 years of computer work, over 12 hrs of work per day and system administrators were at a higher risk for CTS (OR 3.3, 4.9 and 2.5 respectively). Flexed or extended hand position had higher risk for CTS.

Higher risk for CTS was found with higher exposure to computer work. Ergonomic considerations are important in facilitating proper positioning of hand while working with a computer. Further studies on CTS risk factors among computer professionals are essential for planning prevention.     

An advanced Driller's Method simulator for deepwater well control

Deepwater hydrocarbon reserves play an important role in the global energy industry. The safety issue which is associated with deepwater well control is one of the most crucial aspects during the well design and construction in a drilling scenario. Limited by the narrow drilling window and the long but small choke line, accurate prediction of the wellbore pressure is required to ensure a successful well control operation in deepwater. This paper focuses on the deepwater Driller's Method, developing an advanced simulator to predict the standpipe and choke pressures in deepwater horizontal well killing on the basis of “dynamic” bottom hole pressure. In order to improve the precision of the simulator, circulation temperature, gas expansion and choke line friction loss have been considered in the model. According to the data of a planned horizontal well X-2, the simulation and analysis of the behaviors of the standpipe and choke pressures during the deepwater Driller's Method well killing operation were performed with the proposed simulator. For further understanding the characteristics of the deepwater Driller's Method, it investigated the influence of some engineering parameters on the surface pressures, including seawater depth, horizontal section length, gas kick volume and killing rate. The results demonstrate that the standpipe pressure increases with seawater depth and killing rate; the peak choke pressure increases with seawater depth and gas kick volume; and the horizontal section length has a little impact on the standpipe and choke pressures. In addition, the application of the well killing case in BY-3 well, which is located in the South China Sea, has proved the validity of the simulator.     

上海市“十一五”COD总量控制核查方法探讨

通过对上海市水环境主要污染物总量的分析,从政府管理角度,探讨“十一五”上海市水环境主要污染物总量控制核查方法。主要从污水收集管网建设和污水处理厂建设及运行、重点污染源监管、水环境质量改善三方面入手,通过计划申报、日常监控、实时预警来保证总量控制目标完成,并探讨了核查职责体系和信息发布程序及内容。     

台风持续影响下中山市大气O3污染过程分析

应用三维空气质量模型（Model-3/CMAQ）和积分过程速率（IPR）分析工具对2017年7月22~31日夏季4次台风持续影响下中山市7月首次出现的持续6d的O₃污染事件进行了详细分析,识别了O₃ 8h浓度最大值时段主导的大气物理过程和大气化学过程,并计算了不同源、汇过程对本地O₃浓度的贡献.研究结果表明,污染时段化学过程对O₃的源贡献高于非污染时段,化学过程贡献增加,说明光化学反应过程更加活跃;台风带来的外来气团经过上风向高污染物排放区域时,化学过程贡献显著上升,与非经过高污染物排放区域相比,污染时段的化学过程对中山市O₃源过程的浓度贡献高2.4%~6.5%;污染时段,水平输送对中山市大气O₃源过程的浓度贡献在56.6%~92.6%之间.因此,污染期间强化本地排放源的管控,减少O₃生成贡献的同时,结合区域气团路径分析,精准识别污染协同管控区域,上风向污染物高排放区域实施协同减排措施,实现区域联防联控.     

纳氏试剂光度法测定水中氨氮的质量控制

对影响纳氏试剂光度法测定水中氨氮的有关因素进行了研究和探讨,以提高测定准确度与精密度。