太湖叶绿素a浓度预测模型初探

以太湖2005年的监测资料为基础,运用多元统计回归和BP人工神经网络方法构建模型,探求叶绿素a与水深、水温、营养盐等10项环境因子之间的关系,通过验证发现BP模型对叶绿素a浓度的拟合值与叶绿素a浓度的实测值之间的均方误差为220．3059,优于统计回归模型的235．4569;此外对两种模型进行了灵敏度测试,结果都显示总磷不是太湖叶绿素a浓度的限制因子,而水深、水温、总氮的变化对叶绿素a浓度影响显著。本研究对太湖叶绿素a浓度预测模型的建立是十分有意义的。     

基于贝叶斯网络分类的土壤盐渍化遥感监测

贝叶斯网络是一种将贝叶斯概率方法和有向无环图的网络拓扑结构有机结合的概率模型.采用贝叶斯网络分类对具有典型干旱特征的库车县土壤盐渍化情况进行监测,首先应用条件独立性测试原理建立贝叶斯网络结构,把研究区遥感数据进行离散化,然后应用贝叶斯定理作为分类原则,将每个像元分为像元最大概率的类别.研究结果表明该方法来分类6种地类的整体分类精度达到96%,并为该区盐渍地面积,空间分布等特征监测提供较好的依据.     

基于FY-4A卫星数据反演气溶胶光学厚度及分析应用

风云四号A星（FY-4A）是我国新一代静止气象卫星,多通道扫描成像辐射计（AGRI）是风云四号静止气象卫星的主要载荷之一.为探究FY4A数据用于气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）反演的可行性,基于FY-4A/AGRI数据,利用暗像元算法对2019年2月23~26日及10月27~30日京津冀地区AOD进行反演研究,并与AERONET地基观测AOD数据进行了对比分析.结果表明,基于FY-4A数据及构建响应函数库,通过暗像元方法能较好的反演出京津冀地区气溶胶空间分布;AOD主要的高值区体现在京津冀中南部地区并向周边郊区逐渐降低,在AOD值较大时此特征较为明显;将反演值与同期AERONET地基观测数据对比验证,相关系数达到0.869,均方根误差为0.221,表明AOD反演值与观测值吻合较好,FY-4A卫星数据反演AOD具有一定可行性.     

河湖水系连通研究:概念框架

河湖水系连通已经成为国家江河治理的重大需求,提高国家水资源统筹调配能力、改善河湖健康保障能力、增强抵御水旱灾害能力迫切需要加强河湖水系连通研究,但相关的理论和技术尚处于探索阶段,远远落后于实践。论文根据新形势下保障国家水安全和提高生态文明水平的新要求,讨论了河湖水系连通的概念及内涵,并讨论了河湖水系连通的系统性、复杂性、动态性和时空性等特征,在综合考虑河湖水系连通目标和任务的基础上,提出河湖水系连通战略研究可从机理分析、系统辨识与评价、连通工程规划、系统控制与调整4个方面展开,明确了研究的总体思路,对尺度、过程、格局、功能与控制等研究的基本问题进行了初步讨论。     

Distribution of antibiotic resistance genes and their association with bacteria and viruses in decentralized sewage treatment facilities

• Distribution of ARGs in decentralized sewage facilities were investigated. • Bacitracin-ARGs were most predominant ARGs in rural wastewater. • ARGs were identified in bacterial and viral community. • ARGs of rpoB, drfE, gyrA and parC were both correlated with bacteria and phages. • More attention should be paid to the risk of spreading ARG by phages. The distribution of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) has been intensively studied in large-scale wastewater treatment plants and livestock sources. However, small-scale decentralized sewage treatment facilities must also be explored due to their possible direct exposure to residents. In this study, six wastewater treatment facilities in developed rural areas in eastern China were investigated to understand their risks of spreading ARGs. Using metagenomics and network analysis tools, ARGs and bacterial and viral communities were identified in the influent (INF) and effluent (EFF) samples. The dominant ARGs belonged to the bacitracin class, which are different from most of municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). The dominant hosts of ARGs are Acidovorax in bacterial communities and Prymnesiovirus in viral communities. Furthermore, a positive relationship was found between ARGs and phages. The ARGs significantly correlated with phages were all hosted by specific genera of bacteria, indicating that phages had contributed to the ARG’s proliferation in sewage treatment facilities. Paying significant concern on the possible enhanced risks caused by bacteria, viruses and their related ARGs in decentralized sewage treatment facilities is necessary.     

Total phosphorus concentrations in surface water of typical agro- and forest ecosystems in China, 2004–2010

The concentrations of total phosphorus （TP） from 83 surface water sampling sites in 29 of the Chinese Ecosystem Research Network （CERN） monitored ecosystems, representing typical agro- and forest ecosystems, were assessed using monitoring data collected between 2004 and 2010 from still and flowing surface water. Results showed that, TP concentrations were significantly higher in agro-ecosystems than those in forest ecosystems both for still and flowing surface water. For agro- ecosystems, TP concentrations in the southern area were significantly higher than those in the northern and north- western areas for both still and flowing surface water, however no distinct spatial pattern was observed for forest ecosystems. In general, the median values of TP within agro- and forest ecosystems did not exceed the Class V guideline for still （0.2mg.L-1） or flowing （0.4mg.L-1） surface water, however, surface water at some agro- ecosystem sampling sites was frequently polluted by TE Elevated concentrations were mainly found in still surface water at the Changshu, Fukang, Linze and Naiman monitored ecosystems, where exceedance （〉 0.2 mg.L-1） frequencies varied from 43% to 78%. For flowing water, elevated TP concentrations were found at the Hailun, Changshu and Shapotou monitored ecosystems, where exceedance （〉 0.4 mg. L-1） frequencies varied from 29% to 100%. Irrational fertilization, frequent irrigation and livestock manure input might be the main contributors of high TP concentrations in these areas, and reduced fertilizer applications, improvements in irrigation practices and centralized treatment of animal waste are necessary to control P loss in these TP vulnerable zones.     

Evidence for the dominance of indirect effects in 50 trophic ecosystem networks

Indirect effects are powerful influences in ecosystems that may maintain species diversity and alter apparent relationships between species in surprising ways. Here, we applied network environ analysis to 50 empirically-based trophic ecosystem models to test the hypothesis that indirect flows dominate direct flows in ecosystem networks. Further, we used Monte Carlo based perturbations to investigate the robustness of these results to potential error in the underlying data. To explain our findings, we further investigated the importance of the microbial food web in recycling energy-matter using components of the Finn Cycling Index and analysis of environ centrality. We found that indirect flows dominate direct flows in 37/50 (74.0%) models. This increases to 31/35 (88.5%) models when we consider only models that have cycling structure and a representation of the microbial food web. The uncertainty analysis reveals that there is less error in the I/D values than the ±5% error introduced into the models, suggesting the results are robust to uncertainty. Our results show that the microbial food web mediates a substantial percentage of cycling in some systems (median = 30.2%), but its role is highly variable in these models, in agreement with the literature. Our results, combined with previous work, strongly suggest that indirect effects are dominant components of activity in ecosystems.     

Equivalence of the realized input and output oriented indirect effects metrics in Ecological Network Analysis

A new understanding of the consequences of how ecosystem elements are interconnected is emerging from the development and application of Ecological Network Analysis. The relative importance of indirect effects is central to this understanding, and the ratio of indirect flow to direct flow (I/D) is one indicator of their importance. Two methods have been proposed for calculating this indicator. The unit approach shows what would happen if each system member had a unit input or output, while the realized technique determines the ratio using the observed system inputs or outputs. When using the unit method, the input oriented and output oriented ratios can be different, potentially leading to conflicting results. However, we show that the input and output oriented I/D ratios are identical using the realized method when the system is at steady state. This work is a step in the maturation of Ecological Network Analysis that will let it be more readily testable empirically and ultimately more useful for environmental assessment and management.     

Building Sustainable Community-Based Food Programs: Cautionary Tales from The Garden

This essay calls attention to the practical implications that community food organizers can glean from Scott Hamilton Kennedy's documentary, The Garden. More specifically, the authors examine the discursive tensions faced by the South Central Farmers as a way to make sense of their own use of dialog, policy, and health networking to build a community food initiative. The essay concludes by offering a unique metaphor-mycelium-in order to promote sustainable health practices and organize community-based food programs.     

BP神经网络法预测唐山市需水量

需水量预测研究已成为当前水资源规划与管理研究中的重要课题之一.本文设定不同的神经网络运行次数,根据预测结果进行误差分析,BP神经网络在运行5 000次时,具有高度的可信度和可行性.应用5 000次运行次数的BP神经网络模型对唐山市规划水平年的需水量进行预测.最后引入人均综合用水量概念,结果表明,预测结果在理论上和实际上都具有可行性.