Comparing discriminant analysis, neural networks and logistic regression for predicting species distributions: a case study with a Himalayan river bird

We assessed the occurrence of a common river bird, the Plumbeous Redstart Rhyacornis fuliginosus, along 180 independent streams in the Indian and Nepali Himalaya. We then compared the performance of multiple discrimant analysis (MDA), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) in predicting this species’ presence or absence from 32 variables describing stream altitude, slope, habitat structure, chemistry and invertebrate abundance. Using the entire data (=training set) and a threshold for accepting presence in ANN and LR set to P≥0.5, ANN correctly classified marginally more cases (88%) than either LR (83%) or MDA (84%). Model performance was assessed from two methods of data partitioning. In a ‘leave-one-out’ approach, LR correctly predicted more cases (82%) than MDA (73%) or ANN (69%). However, in a holdout procedure, all the methods performed similarly (73–75%). All methods predicted true absence (i.e. specificity in holdout: 81–85%) better than true presence (i.e. sensitivity: 57–60%). These effects reflect species’ prevalence (=frequency of occurrence), but are seldom considered in distribution modelling. Despite occurring at only 36% of the sites, Plumbeous Redstarts are one of the most common Himalayan river birds, and problems will be greater with less common species. Both LR and ANN require an arbitrary threshold probability (often P=0.5) at which to accept species presence from model prediction. Simulations involving varied prevalence revealed that LR was particularly sensitive to threshold effects. ROC plots (received operating characteristic) were therefore used to compare model performance on test data at a range of thresholds; LR always outperformed ANN. This case study supports the need to test species’ distribution models with independent data, and to use a range of criteria in assessing model performance. ANN do not yet have major advantages over conventional multivariate methods for assessing bird distributions. LR and MDA were both more efficient in the use of computer time than ANN, and also more straightforward in providing testable hypotheses about environmental effects on occurrence. However, LR was apparently subject to chance significant effects from explanatory variables, emphasising the well-known risks of models based purely on correlative data.     

基于ANSYS-PDS的含缺陷压力容器可靠性分析

为更准确地分析含缺陷压力容器的可靠性,提出采用ANSYS软件中的PDS模块建模求解,从本质上克服API 581压力容器可靠性分析的局限性,采用将压力容器的内径、原始壁厚、缺陷深度、压力容器内压设置为服从正态分布的随机变量的方法,基于响应面法结合蒙特卡洛法抽样分析,通过编写APDL代码,探讨含缺陷压力容器的可靠性.结果表...     

组合钢管混凝土式防屈曲支撑

由于河北省图书馆加固改造工程的实际需要,开发出了一种新型组合钢管混凝土式防屈曲支撑。该新型支撑解决了全钢型防屈曲支撑在大长度时难以满足稳定性的问题,而且比起传统钢管混凝土约束的防屈曲支撑,无需考虑内芯与混凝土之间的粘结力问题,加工过程简便、施工速度快,且质量容易控制。现已对此类新型支撑完成了短试件和足尺试件的拟静力滞回性能试验,试验结果表明,新型支撑的滞回曲线饱满稳定,整体稳定性和局部稳定性较好,满足工程要求。     

煤层瓦斯含量测定定点取样方法研究进展

基于文献调研及前期研究,分析了目前煤矿井下煤层瓦斯含量直接测定时所采用定点取样方法及其弊端,阐述了学者们提出的改进型定点取样方法,并对煤层瓦斯含量测定定点取样方法的研究进行了展望,指出:①取样过程瓦斯损失量小、取样时升温低、机械复杂度低是基于煤芯管法定点取样方法的发展方向;②开展煤储层条件下的瓦斯运移规律研究,建立并完善各种基于煤芯管法的定点取样方法的瓦斯损失量模型;③适用于松软煤层的定点取样方法的研发亟待开展;④基于负压气力输送理论的定点取样方法是定点取样方法研究的趋势,动态颗粒煤变负压瓦斯解吸规律是建立对应瓦斯损失量模型的基础研究。     

油池火作用下钢管混凝土柱温度分布研究

在开敞空间条件下利用油池火模拟不同的火灾场景,对火源燃烧阶段和燃烧结束后钢管混凝土柱的温度变化进行研究。测量了燃料质量变化和钢管混凝土柱的温度分布等参数,分析不同火灾场景下钢管混凝土柱轴向、横截面的温度变化,并以实验工况HS3为例进行深入分析,同时分析了火源的燃烧时间、热释放速率对钢管混凝土柱温度场分布的影响。研究结果表明,钢管混凝土柱纵向温度分布与横向温度分布一样都存在明显的温度梯度,其表面钢管温度变化受火场热释放速率影响较大,而内部混凝土的温度变化则主要受火场持续时间的影响。     

Simulation-based fault propagation analysis—Application on hydrogen production plant

Recently production of hydrogen from water through the Cu–Cl thermochemical cycle is developed as a new technology. The main advantages of this technology over existing ones are higher efficiency, lower costs, lower environmental impact and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Considering these advantages, the usage of this technology in new industries such as nuclear and oil is increasingly developed. Due to hazards involved in hydrogen production, design and implementation of hydrogen plants require provisions for safety, reliability and risk assessment. However, very little research is done from safety point of view. This paper introduces fault semantic network (FSN) as a novel method for fault diagnosis and fault propagation analysis by using evolutionary techniques like genetic programming (GP) and neural networks (NN), to uncover process variables’ interactions. The effectiveness, feasibility and robustness of the proposed method are demonstrated on simulated data obtained from the simulation of hydrogen production process in Aspen HYSYS^®. The proposed method has successfully achieved reasonable detection and prediction of non-linear interaction patterns among process variables.     

陶瓷纤维滤管在烟气净化一体化技术中的应用

在对国内外现有的一体化烟气处理工艺系统梳理的基础上,重点分析了基于陶瓷纤维滤管的烟气净化一体化技术,对其技术原理、应用特性、应用现状进行了分析总结,并以江苏某垃圾焚烧发电厂中试示范项目为例进行验证.结果表明,NOx、SO2、HCl、颗粒物、二噁英类去除效率分别为97.6％、84.1％、74.8％、>99.9％、99.9...     

弯管与盲通管冲蚀磨损对比分析研究

为了研究石油管道流向急剧改变处的冲蚀磨损问题,采用DPM模型,通过改变入口流速、颗粒质量流速、颗粒直径,对90°弯管与盲通管的流场分布及冲蚀情况进行数值模拟。结果表明:弯管与盲通管最大冲蚀速率随入口流速的增大呈指数增长,随颗粒质量流速的增大呈线性增长;在50~100 μm粒径范围内,最大冲蚀速率随粒径的增加逐渐减小,在100~300 μm粒径范围内,随粒径的增加而增大;在入口流速、颗粒质量流速、颗粒直径相同的条件下,弯管最大冲蚀速率明显高于盲通管最大冲蚀速率,盲通管的耐蚀性更强;由于流体在盲通管产生涡旋现象,增加了颗粒能量的耗散,从而减小了进入下游管线颗粒的速率,使得颗粒更易积存于盲通段形成堆积层,减小了下游管段冲蚀速率。     

Small-scale physical explosions in shock tubes in comparison with condensed high explosive detonations

A series of small-scale experiments involving physical explosions in a 1.6 l pressure vessel was carried out. Explosions were initiated by spontaneous rupture of an aluminium membrane on one side of the vessel at a pressure in the range 1–1.2 MPa. The pressure waves released were measured at different distances along two separate shock tubes, one 10 m long and 200 mm in diameter (closed at one end by the high pressure vessel) and the other 15 m long and 100 mm in diameter.TNT equivalency was used for predicting the blast wave characteristics after vessel rupture. TNT equivalency was used because equations for prediction of peak pressure and impulse of the blast wave in 1-D geometry after detonations of condensed explosives are known. Some experiments with an equivalent amount of real explosive were carried out for comparison with the theoretical and experimental data obtained. The applicability of the TNT equivalency method presented for calculations of maximum pressure and shock wave impulse generated after rupture of the pressure vessel in 1-D geometry is discussed.     

污染环境罪司法适用争议问题研究

《刑法修正案（八）》颁布实施后,污染环境罪适用已经一年有余,然而一些争议问题仍未厘清,尤其是主观罪过形态以及严格责任问题,理论界和司法实践中还存在不同的认识。笔者认为,将污染环境罪认定为过失犯罪不存在理论上的不恰切,相反更符合刑法罪责刑相适应的原则。同时严格责任在我国刑法中没有适用的空间。