Trends in real commodity prices: How real is real?

Testing for the existence of downward trends in real commodity prices has been the focus of several studies since the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis was formulated back in 1950. In this article, we focus on annual and monthly series of various commodity categories and consider alternative price deflators. Based on the methodology of Harvey et al. (2010), which is robust to the order of integration of the time series, we conclude that the time frequency and the price deflators play a key role when testing for the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis. For instance, at an annual frequency (1900–2003, 1900–2008), it becomes considerably more likely to support it when deflating by the unadjusted US CPI-all items than when deflating by the Manufactures Unit Value (MUV) Index or the Historical Price Index of Manufactures (HPIM). This finding is in agreement with the Svedberg and Tilton (2006) discussion on the CPI's overestimation of inflation and the measurement of the real price of copper. When dealing with monthly data (January 1957–December 2010), our results show that real prices tend not to reject the null hypothesis of a trendless series, except when deflating by the PPI-Crude Materials and, to a lesser extent, by the HPIM.     

Differentiation of determinants of low-cost and high-cost recycling

The bulk of research on recycling has been devoted to disentangling factors that affect it. Based on the low-cost hypothesis, we suggest that psychological factors differentially influence behaviors that are relatively less costly to perform compared to behaviors that are more costly to perform. Recycling has often been viewed as low-cost behavior, neglecting that recycling in different waste categories may vary in cost. The aim of the present study was to apply and extend the low-cost hypothesis by investigating whether beliefs about environmental consequences, knowledge, and norms differentially affect low-cost and high-cost recycling. A survey of 418 participants showed that knowledge, social norms, and personal norms were related to both low-cost and high-cost recycling, but the relation was significantly stronger for high-cost recycling. Personal norms partially mediated procedural knowledge and social norms in both low-cost and high-cost recycling. The findings emphasize the need to regard recycling as a multiform behavior and to analyse its determinants separately for different waste categories.     

Well-designed environmental regulation and firm performance: Swedish evidence on the Porter hypothesis and the effect of regulatory time strategies

Using recent data on a cross-section of Swedish chemical and pulp and paper firms, this paper provides novel empirical insights into the Porter hypothesis. Well-designed environmental regulation can stimulate firms’ innovative capabilities, while at the same time generating innovation offsets that may both offset net compliance costs and yield a competitive edge over those firms that are not affected by such regulations. In doing so, we also test the alleged effectiveness of regulatory time strategies in stimulating innovation activities of regulated firms. We find evidence for the effectiveness of such well-designed regulations: announced rather than existing regulation induces innovation and some innovation offsets. Our results imply that empirical tests of the Porter hypothesis that do not account for its dynamic nature, and that do not measure well-designed regulations, might provide misleading conclusions as to its validity.     

Life-history traits and the fate of translocated populations

Attempts to identify predictors and mechanisms of invasion success have been weakened by poor data quality, mostly because monitoring does not begin immediately after introduction events. To overcome this issue, we used data from conservation translocations of threatened bird species. We analyzed information on >1200 translocation events of >150 bird species to investigate how life-history traits affect population establishment measured based on rates of survival and reproduction. Species position along the slow–fast life-history continuum was a key predictor of translocation success. Species with fast-paced life histories were less likely to survive (over both short- and mid-term) and more likely to breed successfully than species with slow life histories. The temporal partitioning of reproductive effort (number of clutches per year) also affected the probability of successful reproduction. Our results illustrate how conservation-motivated reintroduction programs can provide proxies for the initial stages of the invasion process, enabling empirical tests of predictions from life-history theory and informing management.     

早始新世气候适宜期形成机制探讨

早始新世气候适宜期发生在53?—?51 Ma,是新生代早期一段气候持续温暖时期.与中中新世气候适宜期和上新世气候适宜期相比,早始新世气候适宜期更加温暖.对于该时期驱动机制的理解有助于深入认识未来温暖气候状况的变化.本文总结了前人提出的构造尺度气候变化的假说,推断出早始新世气候适宜期可能是由于板块构造活动变化导致的温室气体变化所造成,而星际暗物质变化对早始新世气候适宜期的影响有待进一步评估.     

A calibrated auction-conjoint valuation method: Valuing pork and eggs produced under differing animal welfare conditions

This paper develops a valuation method which generates consistent and systematic estimates of people's preferences for complex multi-attribute goods by inextricably linking auction bids with conjoint ratings. The advantage of the valuation approach is that it permits the estimation of people's values for many potential goods, allows one to decompose people's values for a good into its sub-components, and permits the study of preference heterogeneity without distributional assumptions. We apply the method to an important and increasingly controversial topic: animal welfare. The method is used to determine people's preferences for eggs and pork produced from different production systems. Data from experiments conducted in three diverse U.S. locations (Chicago, IL; Dallas, TX; and Wilmington, NC) indicates that people are, on average, willing to pay $0.95 more for a dozen eggs raised in an aviary, pasture system vs. a cage system, and are willing to pay $2.02 more for two-pounds of pork chops raised in a pasture system as opposed to a crate system.     

基于正态分布假设检验的湖泊营养盐浓度分级评价方法研究

目前湖泊营养盐浓度级别评价常采用的平均值法忽视了变量的不确定性.本文据此提出一种基于正态分布总体均值假设检验的级别评价方法,并结合我国地表水环境质量标准(GB3838—2002)对营养盐浓度的分类,提出了简便快捷的图示法.结果发现,该方法能体现营养盐浓度变量的不确定性,融合先验级别假设,将决策风险定量化,可提供较为广阔的决策空间.同时,采用该方法对滇池外海观音山监测断面氨氮浓度的水质级别进行评价,发现先验级别假设、样本容量和决策偏好对评价结果有显著影响;与平均值法的比较发现,假设检验法具有更小的错误概率(例如,样本容量13时,风险0.21),评价结果具有更高的可信度,验证了假设检验法的适用性.     

Stationarity: Wanted Dead or Alive?1

Lins, Harry F. and Timothy A. Cohn, 2011. Stationarity: Wanted Dead or Alive? Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):475‐480. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00542.x Abstract: Aligning engineering practice with natural process behavior would appear, on its face, to be a prudent and reasonable course of action. However, if we do not understand the long‐term characteristics of hydroclimatic processes, how does one find the prudent and reasonable course needed for water management? We consider this question in light of three aspects of existing and unresolved issues affecting hydroclimatic variability and statistical inference: Hurst‐Kolmogorov phenomena; the complications long‐term persistence introduces with respect to statistical understanding; and the dependence of process understanding on arbitrary sampling choices. These problems are not easily addressed. In such circumstances, humility may be more important than physics; a simple model with well‐understood flaws may be preferable to a sophisticated model whose correspondence to reality is uncertain.     

Testosterone predicts future dominance rank and mating activity among male chacma baboons

Despite the many benefits that testosterone has on male reproduction, sustaining high levels of testosterone for long periods can be costly. The challenge hypothesis predicts that males will show temporarily sustained elevations of testosterone at critical periods, counterbalanced by decreased levels during noncritical periods. We investigated male testosterone measures extracted from fecal samples in a group of chacma baboons (Papio hamadryas ursinus) living in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. Because rank serves as a proxy for competition for mates, we examined how male testosterone was related to dominance rank, age, aggression, and mating activity. Males showed an elevation in testosterone at maturity; young adult males had the highest testosterone levels followed by a steady decline with age. Among dispersing males, testosterone was temporarily elevated in the month following dispersal. After controlling for age, testosterone and rank were unrelated, but testosterone and changes in rank were positively correlated, such that males rising in rank had higher testosterone than males falling in rank. Thus, for males in this group, testosterone was predictive of a male's rank trajectory, or future rank. Similarly, male testosterone levels predicted future, rather than current, mating activity. Finally, male testosterone and aggression rates were unrelated during stable periods in the dominance hierarchy but positively related during unstable periods when high ranks were being contested. In general, our results support the challenge hypothesis with males exhibiting elevated testosterone in association with the acquisition of high rank (ensuring access to mates), rather than with mating itself.     

Exposing males to female scent increases the cost of controlling <Emphasis Type="Italic">Salmonella</Emphasis> infection in wild house mice

Secondary sexual characters often provide indicators of a male’s resistance to infectious diseases to rivals and potential mates, but it is unclear why. It is often suggested that males honestly signal their health due to energetic and other physiological trade-offs between investing into secondary sexual traits vs resistance to infectious diseases. Our aim was to determine whether such a trade-off exists using wild-derived male house mice (Mus domesticus). We exposed male mice to female scent, a manipulation that induces elevations in testosterone concentration and the expression of a variety of testosterone-mediated secondary sexual traits, and tested whether this sexual stimulation impaired the males’ ability to resolve or cope with an experimental infection (Salmonella enterica). We kept the males on a controlled diet to prevent them from compensating by eating more food. We found that sexually stimulated males were able to control bacterial growth as effectively as sham-stimulated controls; however, to do so, they lost more body mass during infection compared to the controls. In contrast, we found no evidence that sexual stimulation reduced the body mass of uninfected male mice. These results indicate that males’ responses to female odor are not immunosuppressive per se, yet they increase the energetic costs of controlling infection. Our findings support the idea that there is a physiological trade-off between secondary sexual signaling vs resistance to infectious diseases and suggest that studies using only immunocompetence assays might fail to detect such energetic trade-offs. We dedicate this paper to the late Professor Chris Barnard who conducted pioneering research on this topic.