Improving the prediction of air pollution peak episodes generated by urban transport networks

This paper illustrates the early results of ongoing research developing novel methods to analyse and simulate the relationship between trasport-related air pollutant concentrations and easily accessible explanatory variables. The final scope is to integrate the new models in traditional traffic management support systems for a sustainable mobility of road vehicles in urban areas.This first stage concerns the relationship between the hourly mean concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and explanatory factors reflecting the NO₂ mean level one hour back, along with traffic and weather conditions. Particular attention is given to the prediction of pollution peaks, defined as exceedances of normative concentration limits. Two model frameworks are explored: the Artificial Neural Network approach and the ARIMAX model. Furthermore, the benefit of a synergic use of both models for air quality forecasting is investigated.The analysis of findings points out that the prediction of extreme concentrations is best performed by integrating the two models into an ensemble. The neural network is outperformed by the ARIMAX model in foreseeing peaks, but gives a more realistic representation of the concentration's dependency upon wind characteristics. So, the Neural Network can be exploited to highlight the involved functional forms and improve the ARIMAX model specification. In the end, the study shows that the ability to forecast exceedances of legal pollution limits can be enhanced by requiring traffic management actions when the predicted concentration exceeds a lower threshold than the normative one.     

Sediment nutrient flux in a coastal lake impacted by diverted Mississippi River water

The internal nutrient load from bottom sediment to the water column of a Louisiana Barataria Basin lake (Lake Cataouatche) receiving diverted Mississippi River water was determined. Dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), ammonium (NH₄-N) and nitrate (NO₃-N) flux from sediment to water column were measured. The DRP flux averaged-0.22 mg m^-2 d^-1 under aerobic water column conditions, as compared with that 3.29 mg m^-2 d^-1 under anaerobic conditions. The average NH₄-N released under anaerobic conditions (1.42 mg m^-2 d^-1) was significantly greater than rates under aerobic conditions (-0.02 mg m^-2 d^-1), indicating a strong relationship between nutrient flux and oxygen availability in the water column. The average NO₃-N flux was 2.13 mg m^-2 d^-1 under aerobic conditions as compared with-0.24 mg m^-2 d^-1 under anaerobic conditions in the sediment-water column. When the water column maintained under anaerobic conditions was switched to aerobic conditions, the DRP, NH₄-N, and NO₃-N concentrations in overlying water decreased rapidly over a short period of time. The mean annual internal DRP and NH₄-N load from the sediment to the overlying water was estimated to be 69.26 and 29.9 tonnes (Mg) yr^-1 respectively, which represents a significant portion of the total nutrient load to the Lake. Results demonstrate that the internal flux of nutrients from sediments can contribute a significant portion of the total nutrient load to the water column and should be considered in decisions on impact of nutrient in diverted Mississippi River on water quality of Barataria Basin.     

Modelling the N cascade in regional watersheds: The case study of the Seine, Somme and Scheldt rivers

The watersheds of the Seine, Somme and Scheldt rivers (France, Belgium, the Netherlands), flowing into the continental coastal zone of the English Channel and Southern North Sea, are among the regions of the world with the highest anthropogenic inputs of reactive nitrogen through fertilizer use, legume fixation and deposition of atmospheric nitrogen. They also represent examples of widely open systems, either exporting a large fraction of their N inputs under the form of agricultural products (case of the Seine basin) or importing high amounts of nitrogen as feed for livestock nutrition (case of the Scheldt basin), and delivering up to 2000 kg N km⁻² yr⁻¹ at river outlet into the sea. Taking these three watersheds as a case study, we review the different approaches developed so far for describing and predicting the fate of reactive nitrogen inputs to regional systems and its cascade from soils to sea. These approaches range from simple lumped input–output budget, to detailed process-based, spatially distributed models of nutrient transfers. The merits and the limits of these approaches are discussed. Their combination allows to establish a reasonably consistent budget for the three basins, emphasizing the various ‘retention’ terms linked to both landscape and in-stream processes, including storage in long residence time compartments (soil organic matter, vadose zone, aquifers, etc.), denitrification (in soil, riparian zones or river benthos) or sediment burial. Root-zone and riparian denitrification processes appear as major terms of landscape retention in all three investigated watersheds. Retention of nitrogen associated with collection and treatment of urban wastewater is also a major term in the two most populated watersheds.     

糠醛生产废渣直接转化为复合肥:添加剂(Ⅱ)配方与蒸馏条件的研究

采用复合添加剂 (Ⅱ ) ,主要成分为 :重钙、磷酸、亚硫酸氢钠和碳酸钙等 ,以稻草 (或麦杆 )为原料 ,用硫酸酸化水解制取糠醛 ,硫酸浓度为 6 % (摩尔 % ) ,液固比为 1∶1～ 2∶1 (wt /wt) ,复合添加剂 (Ⅱ )与原料的比为 0 .0 5∶1 (wt/wt) ,出醛率 :稻草为 1 0 % ;麦杆 1 1 % ,废渣全部转化为中性复合肥。     

Does nitrogen deposition increase forest production? The role of phosphorus

Effects of elevated N deposition on forest aboveground biomass were evaluated using long-term data from N addition experiments and from forest observation plots in Switzerland. N addition experiments with saplings were established both on calcareous and on acidic soils, in 3 plots with Fagus sylvatica and in 4 plots with Picea abies. The treatments were conducted during 15 years and consisted of additions of dry NH₄NO₃ at rates of 0, 10, 20, 40, 80, and 160 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. The same tree species were observed in permanent forest observation plots covering the time span between 1984 and 2007, at modeled N deposition rates of 12-46 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. Experimental N addition resulted in either no change or in a decreased shoot growth and in a reduced phosphorus concentration in the foliage in all experimental plots. In the forest, a decrease of foliar P concentration was observed between 1984 and 2007, resulting in insufficient concentrations in 71% and 67% of the Fagus and Picea plots, respectively, and in an increasing N:P ratio in Fagus. Stem increment decreased during the observation period even if corrected for age. Forest observations suggest an increasing P limitation in Swiss forests especially in Fagus which is accompanied by a growth decrease whereas the N addition experiments support the hypothesis that elevated N deposition is an important cause for this development.     

提高空气中氮氧化物监测质量的方法

大气监测质量保证是一项室内外密切配合的系统工程，每一个步骤对测值都有影响。为提高大气中氮氧化物测定值的准确性，我站采用双管平行对比采样，在长期实践中总结出从室外采样到室内样品分析质量保证方法和经验，以保证大气中氮氧化物测值准确可靠。     

Estuarine management strategies and the predictability of ecosystem changes

The Dutch Delta Region (S-W Netherlands) originally consisted of interconnected estuaries, interfacing the rivers Rhine, Meuse and Schelde with the North Sea. The ecosystems were immature, with physical rather than biological control of population dynamics. Main functions were shipping and shellfisheries. An emergent function of the interconnected estuaries was the buffering and upgrading of river-borne substances before they entered the sea. Execution of the Delta Project in the period 1960–1986 resulted in isolation of several water systems disconnected from rivers and sea, and loss of gradients within these systems. Population dynamics were now controlled by chemical and biological rather than physical factors. Vulnerability to external perturbation increased. These changes also affected the buffering capacity, i.e. reduced the utility of the area as stabiliser of the geosystem. Recreational use and appreciation of natural values increased, potentially conflicting with shipping and shellfisheries. Retrospective analysis of the environmental policy and management revealed three consecutive strategies in the Delta Project. 1. Reactive one-issue management, focusing on safety against flooding only. This strategy aimed at complete closure of the estuaries thus transforming them into fresh water lakes. It has destroyed feed-backs and buffering between coastal and inland waters. This strategy has not promoted sustainable development and has increased the vulnerability of the area to future catastrophes. 2. Protective bio-ecological management focused on the preservation of existing values of landscape and environment, and resulted in the maintenance of saline conditions and preservation of marshes by shore protection measures. The drawback of this passive orientation to existing values ?where they are now? is the necessity of continuous intensive care because the natural adaptive ability is not being restored. 3. Constructive geo-ecological management is based on understanding functional properties within and between ecosystems as integrated elements of the landscape structure. This strategy aims at environmental protection, restoration and development of values ?where they must be?. Re-establishment of gradients by e.g. re-introducing tidal influence and by restoring salt marshes should contribute to sustainable development.     

浅层淹水条件下不同施肥处理对黑土温室气体排放的影响

以东北黑土区长期耕作土壤为对象,通过室内培养试验研究了浅层淹水条件下不同施肥处理对黑土温室气体排放的影响.结果表明,浅层淹水条件下,与不施肥对照处理相比,单施氮肥处理对土壤CO₂排放没有显著影响,氮肥配施猪粪或者秸秆则显著促进了CO₂的排放,使得CO₂排放速率提高了一个数量级,氮肥配施秸秆处理的CO₂排放量最高.浅层淹水条件下,与不施肥对照处理相比,施用氮肥显著促进了土壤N₂O的排放.而与单施氮肥处理相比,氮肥配施猪粪和秸秆则显著抑制了N₂O的排放,表现为土壤对N₂O的微量吸收,氮肥配施秸秆处理的N₂O吸收量相对较高.浅层淹水条件下施用氮肥抑制了土壤CH₄的排放,而与单施氮肥处理相比,氮肥配施猪粪或者秸秆则促进了土壤CH₄的排放.     

耕地细碎化对农户化肥使用效率的影响

在国家提倡化肥使用零增长、减量化的背景下,如何提高农户化肥使用效率变得至关重要。论文从技术效率角度衡量化肥使用效率,使用回归分析和基于R²的夏普里值分解方法考察了耕地细碎化对农户化肥使用效率的影响方向及程度。结果表明：（1）农户在化肥使用上存在着较高的技术无效率,在保持劳动力、土地等其他要素投入数量不变的情况下,约52.51%的化肥投入可以削减且不影响产出。通过提高农户对化肥的使用和管理水平完全可以做到化肥减量而作物不减产。（2）耕地细碎化对农户化肥使用效率具有显著负影响,是导致农户化肥使用效率低下的一个重要原因,能够解释农户间化肥使用效率差异12.15%,在所有决定因素中位居第四,仅次于村虚拟变量、水田比例和粮食作物种植比例。而且,在细碎化程度越高的西部地区,耕地细碎化对农户化肥使用效率差异的贡献越强。（3）农户在化肥使用效率上的差异主要源于所在村特征和包括经营规模、种植结构、土地质量、是否加入合作社等因素在内的生产经营特征的不同;而农户个体特征受集体决策影响,解释力较弱。     

近30年余干县耕地土壤碳氮比时空变异特征及其影响因素

基于1982年余干县第二次土壤普查200个样点数据和2012年测土配方施肥项目423个样点数据,运用方差分析、相关性分析、回归分析和普通克里格法,结合成土母质、土壤类型、耕地利用方式、地形因子、pH、秸秆还田和氮肥施用量,探讨近30年来余干县耕地表层(0~20 cm)土壤碳氮比(C/N)时空变异特征及其影响因素.结果表明余干县1982年和2012年土壤C/N均值依次为10.05和11.18,变异系数分别为19.40%和25.04%,均呈中等程度的变异性.经半变异函数分析,块金效应值分别为15.91%和71.25%,表明土壤C/N由结构性因素和随机性因素共同作用变为更倾向于受随机性因素的主导作用.近30年来大部分区域土壤C/N增加明显,以东部区域增加最为显著.1982年土壤C/N空间变异主要受成土母质、土壤类型、地形因子和pH的影响,其影响程度依次为17.3%、14.2%、7.4%和2.3%.2012年土壤C/N空间变异受成土母质、土壤类型、耕地利用方式、地形因子、秸秆还田和氮肥施用量共同作用,其影响程度依次为8.7%、23.5%、28.2%、12.2%、12.6%和42.3%.