Evaluation of California's graduated driver licensing program

Problem: California's graduated driver licensing (GDL) program was implemented to reduce the high crash risk of teenage drivers. The program enhancements made in 1998 were evaluated in this study using methods that rule out the noticeable downward trend in California teen's fatal/injury crash rates as a possible explanation for any observed crash reductions that could otherwise be mistaken for program effects. Method: Monthly per capita fatal/injury crash rates for 15-to-17-year-olds and proportional representations of 16–17-year-olds' nighttime and passenger crashes were analyzed using intervention time series analysis. Results: After removing trend, seasonality, and transition effects in the data, no overall reductions in fatal/injury crashes for 15–17-year-olds or 16-year-olds (separately) were found to be associated with the 1998 program enhancements, suggesting no overall exposure reduction effect of the longer instruction permit period nor increased competency associated with the higher number of required practice hours. However, the 12-month nighttime and 6-month passenger restrictions were found to be associated with annual savings of 55 and 816 fatal/injury crashes, respectively. Discussion: Finding no overall impact of the 1998 GDL enhancements was not surprising given findings of an earlier survey suggesting that California teens and parents were largely already practicing program requirements prior to implementation and were not fully complying with the program requirements afterwards. Though the observed crash savings associated with the restrictions were of modest size, this is the first study to evidence a direct positive impact of the passenger restriction component of GDL programs. Larger reductions could be realized if the nighttime restriction started earlier and parents/law enforcement could be motivated to better enforce these restrictions. Impact on Industry: The findings provide support for passenger and nighttime restriction components of GDL programs.     

Graduated driver licensing restrictions: awareness, compliance, and enforcement in North Carolina

PROBLEM: This study examined the extent to which critical restrictions in North Carolina's graduated driver licensing (GDL) system are known, adhered to, and enforced. METHOD: Teenagers and their parents were recruited as they applied for either an intermediate or full license at 1 of 23 licensing offices. Telephone interviews were conducted with 900 teenagers and their parents. RESULTS: Awareness of North Carolina's night and passenger restrictions was very high among both parents and teenagers. Ten percent of teenagers reported violating the night restriction without their parents' knowledge, and 15% had done so with their parents' approval. Only 4% of parents reported allowing their teenagers to drive with more than one teenage passenger, but 19% of teenagers reported that they were allowed to do this. Violations of the passenger restriction without parental knowledge were more common than violations of the night restriction (22% vs. 10%, respectively). Among teenagers who violated restrictions without their parents' knowledge, most reported doing so only once or a few times. Teenagers expressed little concern about detection, although a majority reported driving more carefully to avoid police notice. Neither parents nor teenagers knew much about police enforcement of GDL restrictions. To obtain a sense of the views of law enforcement officers, informal interviews were conducted with 20 officers from five diverse communities and the state highway patrol. These officers were highly supportive of GDL but unfamiliar with many of the specific provisions. Moreover, enforcement of GDL restrictions did not appear to be a high priority. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: There is a need to increase the belief among teens (and parents) that police are enforcing GDL restrictions in their community; law enforcement participation in well-publicized traffic safety enforcement efforts would likely produce this result.     

Use of Physical Sciences in Support of Environmental Management

Offshore drilling for oil and gas has been conducted since the early 1900s. Oil and gas under the seabed continue to be an important part of the energy resources of the United States. The need to balance the value of these resources against the potential for environmental damage is an important concern. This article explains why and how the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the US Department of the Interior uses research in physical sciences to help fulfill its environmental goals, and it provides background information on the role of physical sciences in decision-making for Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) oil, gas, and other minerals development. Established in the 1970s, the MMS Environmental Studies Program is a highly focused marine research program designed to provide the environmental information necessary for OCS energy and nonenergy minerals planning and development activities. The physical sciences research supported by MMS includes physical oceanography, oil-spill risk analyses, atmospheric sciences, and sand and gravel studies. Instead of giving a comprehensive review on physical sciences research in MMS, this article presents sample MMS studies and illustrates how these studies are utilized to support decision-making in environmental management.Published online Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.     

Surfactant-based oil dispersant toxicity to developing nauplii of Artemia: effects on ATPase enzymatic system

The paper deals with the toxicity of a surfactant-based oil dispersant to the ATPase activities of two naupliar stages of Artemia (instar I & II). Both instars were exposed to sub-lethal and lethal concentrations derived from acute toxicity data. The chosen concentrations were near to LOECs and NOECs. An eightfold difference indicated between the instars was instar-exposure time dependent. The most prominent effects were the inhibition and the stimulation of Na⁺/K⁺-ATPase and Mg²⁺-ATPase activities, respectively. The cause of these effects was related to the dispersant components, the surfactants. The pattern stimulation/inhibition of Mg²⁺-ATPase and Na⁺/K⁺-ATPase activities could be used to indicate toxic stress by surfactant-based oil dispersants since previous studies with other contaminants have shown different ATPase activity patterns.     

CO2 storage capacity estimation: Methodology and gaps

Implementation of CO₂ capture and geological storage (CCGS) technology at the scale needed to achieve a significant and meaningful reduction in CO₂ emissions requires knowledge of the available CO₂ storage capacity. CO₂ storage capacity assessments may be conducted at various scales—in decreasing order of size and increasing order of resolution: country, basin, regional, local and site-specific. Estimation of the CO₂ storage capacity in depleted oil and gas reservoirs is straightforward and is based on recoverable reserves, reservoir properties and in situ CO₂ characteristics. In the case of CO₂-EOR, the CO₂ storage capacity can be roughly evaluated on the basis of worldwide field experience or more accurately through numerical simulations. Determination of the theoretical CO₂ storage capacity in coal beds is based on coal thickness and CO₂ adsorption isotherms, and recovery and completion factors. Evaluation of the CO₂ storage capacity in deep saline aquifers is very complex because four trapping mechanisms that act at different rates are involved and, at times, all mechanisms may be operating simultaneously. The level of detail and resolution required in the data make reliable and accurate estimation of CO₂ storage capacity in deep saline aquifers practical only at the local and site-specific scales. This paper follows a previous one on issues and development of standards for CO₂ storage capacity estimation, and provides a clear set of definitions and methodologies for the assessment of CO₂ storage capacity in geological media. Notwithstanding the defined methodologies suggested for estimating CO₂ storage capacity, major challenges lie ahead because of lack of data, particularly for coal beds and deep saline aquifers, lack of knowledge about the coefficients that reduce storage capacity from theoretical to effective and to practical, and lack of knowledge about the interplay between various trapping mechanisms at work in deep saline aquifers.     

Fire and explosion risk assessment for large-scale oil export terminal

Now in Russian Federation and other countries large-scale oil terminals (volume of one tank exceeds 100 000 m³, total volume of tanks exceeds 300 000 m³) are designed and constructed. Therefore fire safety of such objects becomes a very important task, solution of which is hardly possible without detail fire risk assessment. This study is aimed to a solution of this problem. Potential, individual and social risks were calculated. The potential risk was defined as a frequency of occurrence of hazardous factors of fires and explosions in a given point of space (the so-called risk contours). The individual risk was defined as a frequency of injuring a given person by hazardous factors of fires and explosions. Time of presence of this person in hazardous zones (near the hazardous installation) is taken into account during calculations of the individual risk. Social risk was defined as a dependence of frequency of injuring a given number of people by hazardous factors of fires and explosions on this number. In practice the social risk is usually determined on injuring not less than 10 people.

The oil terminal under consideration includes the following main parts: crude oil storage consisting of three tanks of volume 100 000 m³ each, input crude oil pipeline of diameter 0.6 m, crude oil pumps, output crude oil pipeline of diameter 0.8 m, auxiliary buildings and facilities. The following main scenarios of tank fires have been considered: rim seal fire, pool fire on a surface of a floating roof, pool fire on a total cross-section surface of the tank, pool fire in a dyke, explosions in closed or semiclosed volumes. Fires and explosions in other parts of the terminal are also taken into account. Effects of escalation of accidents are considered.

Risk contours have been calculated both for the territory of the terminal and for the neighbouring space. The potential risk for the storage zone is near 10⁻⁴–10⁻⁵ year⁻¹, and at a distance 500 m from the terminal the potential risk values do not exceed 10⁻⁶ year⁻¹. The values of the individual risk for various categories of workers are in the range of 10⁻⁵–10⁻⁶ year⁻¹. Because of low number of the workers on the terminal and large distances to towns and villages the social risk value is negligible. These risk values are consistent with practice of the best oil companies, and fire hazard level of the terminal can be accepted as tolerable.     

A conceptual model for response to Arctic oil spills

The potential for oil spills in Arctic regions has increased significantly because of the development of petroleum resources. Response to an oil spill in the Arctic is likely to be much slower than that in the temperate region because of the remoteness of the area and its severe climate. In the face of these unique problems, accurate prediction of the extent and subsequent movement of an oil spill is vital to any cleanup effort. Presented is the framework of a program to study the movement of oil spills in the Arctic. Existing models of oil spreading and polar ice dynamics are reviewed and areas where new model development is required are defined. A system design is developed that may be used for developing a plan to act in the event of a major spill.     

行车司机职业适应性评价原理探讨

简要介绍了行车司机职业适应性测试和评价的基本原理及其重要性。     

前车突然切入时驾驶人应激生理特性研究

为研究前车突然切入对驾驶人生理负荷的影响,利用MP150生理监测系统对22名被试进行虚拟驾驶试验。采集记录前车突然切入时被试的生理参数。研究驾驶人心率增长率和心率变异性(HRV)指标与车速、应激距离之间的关系。结果表明:自车速度为100 km/h时,随着前车切入距离从55.6 m减小到27.8 m,被试的平均心率增长率从16.21%增大到23.27%,HRV参数低频(LF)值也呈现下降趋势。前车切入距离一定,随着自车车速从60 km/h增加到120 km/h,被试的平均心率增长率存在显著性差异,平均从13.05%上升到21.85%。差异性检验结果表明,前车切入距离和自车速度发生变化时驾驶人的生理负荷变化趋势一致,但自车速度因素对驾驶人生理负荷的影响程度高于切入距离因素。     

A disaster scene simulation system in 3D for oil transmission stations: Design and implementation

The disaster scene in three-dimensional (3D) plays a crucial role in disaster emergency management and risk communication of oil transmission stations. However, existing research for the disaster scene mainly focuses on reproducing the disaster environment and rarely predicts the damage state of the disaster-affected object. This paper proposes an object-oriented modeling method that utilizes a multilevel decomposition pattern for disaster scenes. This method combines earthquake vulnerability assessment with 3D visualization technology to predict and characterize the damage state of critical infrastructure in oil transmission stations. To enhance earthquake risk perception, a simulation system is designed and developed, which allows for the construction of virtual scenes and quick simulation of disaster scenes in 3D. The case application shows that the system improves the 3D modeling efficiency of disaster scenes and enhances public awareness of earthquake risks. The simulation system can provide technical support for seismic mitigation planning and emergency management decision-making at oil transmission stations and has good application prospects.