Objective: Most of the extensive research dedicated to identifying the influential factors of hit-and-run (HR) crashes has utilized typical maximum likelihood estimation binary logit models, and none have employed real-time traffic data. To fill this gap, this study focused on investigating factors contributing to HR crashes, as well as the severity levels of HR.
Methods: This study analyzed 4-year crash and real-time loop detector data by employing hierarchical Bayesian models with random effects within a sequential logit structure. In addition to evaluation of the impact of random effects on model fitness and complexity, the prediction capability of the models was examined. Stepwise incremental sensitivity and specificity were calculated and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized to graphically illustrate the predictive performance of the model.
Results: Among the real-time flow variables, the average occupancy and speed from the upstream detector were observed to be positively correlated with HR crash possibility. The average upstream speed and speed difference between upstream and downstream speeds were correlated with the occurrence of severe HR crashes. In addition to real-time factors, other variables found influential for HR and severe HR crashes were length of segment, adverse weather conditions, dark lighting conditions with malfunctioning street lights, driving under the influence of alcohol, width of inner shoulder, and nighttime.
Conclusions: This study suggests the potential traffic conditions of HR and severe HR occurrence, which refer to relatively congested upstream traffic conditions with high upstream speed and significant speed deviations on long segments. The above findings suggest that traffic enforcement should be directed toward mitigating risky driving under the aforementioned traffic conditions. Moreover, enforcement agencies may employ alcohol checkpoints to counter driving under the influence (DUI) at night. With regard to engineering improvements, wider inner shoulders may be constructed to potentially reduce HR cases and street lights should be installed and maintained in working condition to make roads less prone to such crashes. 相似文献
Recent interest in expanding offshore oil production within waters of the United States has been met with opposition by groups
concerned with recreational, environmental, and aesthetic values associated with the coastal zone. Although the proposition
of new oil platforms off the coast has generated conflict over how coastal resources should be utilized, little research has
been conducted on where these user conflicts might be most intense and which sites might be most suitable for locating oil
production facilities in light of the multiple, and often times, competing interests. In this article, we develop a multiple-criteria
spatial decision support tool that identifies the potential degree of conflict associated with oil and gas production activities
for existing lease tracts in the coastal margin of Texas. We use geographic information systems to measure and map a range
of potentially competing representative values impacted by establishing energy extraction infrastructure and then spatially
identify which leased tracts are the least contentious sites for oil and gas production in Texas state waters. Visual and
statistical results indicate that oil and gas lease blocks within the study area vary in their potential to generate conflict
among multiple stakeholders. 相似文献
Oil production operations produce waste fluids that may be stored in pits, open tanks, and other sites accessible to wildlife.
Birds visit these fluid-filled pits and tanks (“oil pits”), which often resemble water sources, and may become trapped and
die. The US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) has a program to reduce these impacts by locating problem pits, documenting
mortality of protected wildlife species, and seeking cleanup or corrective action at problem pits with the help of state and
federal agencies regulating the oil industry. Species identification and verification of protected status for birds recovered
from oil pits are performed at the USFWS National Fish and Wildlife Forensics Laboratory. From 1992 to 2005, a minimum of
2060 individual birds were identified from remains recovered from oil pits, representing 172 species from 44 families. The
taxonomic and ecological diversity of these birds indicates that oil pits pose a threat to virtually all species of birds
that encounter them. Ninety-two percent of identified bird remains belonged to protected species. Most remains identified
at the Forensics Laboratory were from passerines, particularly ground-foraging species. Based on Forensics Laboratory and
USFWS field data, oil pits currently cause the deaths of 500,000–1 million birds per year. Although law enforcement and industry
efforts have produced genuine progress on this issue, oil pits remain a significant source of mortality for birds in the United
States. 相似文献
A methodology has been developed to carry out an integrated oil spill vulnerability index, V, for coastal environments. This index takes into account the main physical, biological and socio-economical characteristics by means of three intermediate indexes. Three different integration methods (worst-case, average and survey-based) along with ESI-based vulnerability scores, VESI, proposed for the Cantabrian coast during the Prestige oil spill, have been analyzed and compared in terms of agreement between the classifications obtained with each one for this coastal area. Results of this study indicate that the use of the worst-case index, VR, leads to a conservative ranking, with a very poor discrimination which is not helpful in coastal oil spill risk management. Due to the homogeneity of this coastal stretch, the rest of the methods, VI, VM and VESI, provide similar classifications. However, VM and VI give more flexibility allowing three indexes for each coastal segment and including socio-economic aspects. Finally, the VI procedure is proposed here as the more advisable as using this index promotes the public participation that is a key element in the implementation of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (IZCM). 相似文献