由一起厂内机动车事故引发的思考

本文对一起叉车安全事故的直接原因进行分析,并分别讨论了叉车本身缺陷导致事故发生的可能性、驾驶人员自身的不规范操作,以及使用单位在制度建设及实施方面存在的缺陷.     

Development of an indirect-cost calculation model suitable for workplace use

Introduction: Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) stakeholders rarely factor the cost of workplace accidents into prevention spending decisions. The lack of consideration of this key information is related to the fact that the scientific literature has failed to provide OHS stakeholders with a cost-calculation tool that is both sufficiently accurate and does not require a data-collection stage ill-suited to the time constraints of workplace decision-makers. Method: This study reviews the recent literature to identify key elements that should foster the use of indirect-cost calculation methods by decision makers. Results: A “local” approach currently appears to be the best method for calculating indirect costs of workplace incidents or accidents in comparison to “bottom-up” or “top-down” approach. This paper discusses four criteria that this type of approach must satisfy to be compatible with the time constraints and accuracy demands of OHS stakeholders in organizations. In addition, four bases for the development of a new indirect cost estimation model are presented and discussed. Impact on industry: this study provides bases and criteria to help the development of indirect-cost calculation models better suited to workplace use than those currently available.     

反应失控型火灾爆炸事故预测

介绍了一种预测反庆失控灾害的方法,通过实验测定容器的时间常数,预测能够引起反应失控的最低环境温度,发生反应失控时的危险温度,以及达到最大反应速度反需的时间,预测结果与实际情况具有良好的一致性。     

国内外矿山事故预防与救护机制对比分析

简要介绍了印度、德国、美国、加拿大等国矿山事故预防与救护机制,与我国的矿山事故预防和救护机制进行了对比分析,指出我国矿山伤亡事故的严峻形势,提出了我国矿山事故预防与救护的建议,对减少矿山事故、发展矿山经济具有指导意义。     

Pedestrian crashes at priority-controlled junctions,roundabouts, and signalized junctions: The UK case study

Objectives: Over half of pedestrians killed and seriously injured in Great Britain in 2015 were involved in crashes at junctions. This study investigates the nature of these crashes.

Methods: A study was conducted into pedestrian casualty crashes at priority controlled junctions, roundabouts and signalised junctions in England between 2005 and 2015 using information from the UK STATS19 accident database, the UK National Travel Survey and the UK National Census. Consideration was given to coding frequencies of contributory factors, exposure (in terms of miles walked or driven) as well as age, gender and the resident deprivation index of the road users involved.

Results and Conclusions: In terms of indicative blame, the coding frequencies of subjectively determined pedestrian actions and behaviour factors which might have contributed to pedestrian casualty crashes were found to be between 1.6 and 2.8 times the frequencies of driver actions and behavioural factors. Substantial social gradients were found in pedestrian casualty rates per miles walked and in the driver involvement rates per mile driven with those from the most deprived quintile having higher rates. In addition, it was found that female pedestrians, aged 60 years and over, had higher pedestrian casualty rates, per billion miles walked, for all three junction types, when compared with males and females under the age of 60 years, apart from male pedestrians aged 16 years and younger at priority controlled junctions.     

Inherently safer design review and their timing during chemical process development and design

This paper discusses the enhancement of inherent safety review and its implementation in the chemical process development and design. The aim is to update and improve the existing inherently safer design review (ISDR) practices during design of chemical process plant by exploiting major accident cases from the U.S. Chemical Safety Board (CSB) and Failure Knowledge Database (FKD). Although the basic guidelines to conduct ISDR during design phase are available, however they are too general and incomplete. The review criteria and their best timing for application are still missing. This paper attempts to develop the accident-based ISDR for chemical process plant design. The proposed accident-based ISDR is supported with detail review criteria for each phase of process design. The timing of ISDR application is corresponding to the common design tasks and decisions made in the design project. Therefore, timely design review could be done at the specific design task and the findings help designer to make a correct decision making.     

事故损失统计中的量化问题

简要介绍了事故损失统计中一些量化方法的应用,同时提出用方差分析来确定加权系数的取舍。     

水泥厂清库作业必须用好安全绳

简述了水泥厂贮存生料和熟料的直筒库清库作业中常常发生人身伤害事故的原因,提出了预防事故的措施。     

Dynamic failure assessment of an ammonia storage unit: A case study

Chemical Process Industries usually contain a diverse inventory of hazardous chemicals and complex systems required to perform process operations such as storage, separation, reaction, compression etc. The complex interactions between the equipment make them vulnerable to catastrophic accidents. Risk and failure assessment provide engineers with an intuitive tool for decision making in the operation of such plants. Abnormal events and near-miss situations occur regularly during the operation of a system. Accident Sequence Precursors (ASP) can be used to demonstrate the real-time operating condition of a plant. Dynamic Failure Assessment (DFA) methodology is based on Bayesian statistical methods incorporates ASP data to revise the generic failure probabilities of the systems during its operational lifetime.In this paper, DFA methodology is applied on an ammonia storage unit in a specialized chemical industry. Ammonia is stored in cold storage tanks as liquefied gas at atmospheric pressure. These tanks are susceptible to failures due to various abnormal conditions arising due process failures.Tank failures due to three such abnormal conditions are considered. Variation of the failure probability of the safety systems is demonstrated. The authors use ASP data collected from plant specific sources and safety expert judgement. The failure probabilities of some safety systems concerned show considerable deviation from the generic values. The method helps to locate the components which have undergone more degradation over the period and hence must be paid attention to. In addition, a Bayesian predictive model has been used to predict the number of abnormal events in the next time interval. The user-friendly and intuitive nature of the tool makes it appropriate for application in safety assessment reports in process industries.     

Operational risk assessment: A case of the Bhopal disaster

Accidental releases of hazardous chemicals from process facilities can cause catastrophic consequences. The Bhopal disaster resulting from a combination of inherently unsafe designs and poorly managed operations is a well-known case. Effective risk modeling approaches that provide early warnings are helpful to prevent and control such rare but catastrophic events. Probability estimation of these events is a constant challenge due to the scarcity of directly relevant data. Therefore, precursor-based methods that adopt the Bayesian theorem to update prior judgments on event probabilities using empirical data have been proposed. The updated probabilities are then integrated with consequences of varying severity to produce the risk profile.This paper proposes an operational risk assessment framework, in which a precursor-based Bayesian network approach is used for probability estimation, and loss functions are applied for consequence assessment. The estimated risk profile can be updated continuously given real-time operational data. As process facilities operate, this method integrates a failure-updating mechanism with potential consequences to generate a real-time operational risk profile. The real time risk profile is valuable in activating accident prevention and control strategies. The approach is applied to the Bhopal accident to demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.