Lagging or leading? Exploring the temporal relationship among lagging indicators in mining establishments 2006–2017

Problem: Safety management literature generally categorizes key performance indicators (KPIs) as either leading or lagging. Traditional lagging indicators are measures related to negative safety incidents, such as injuries, while leading indicators are used to predict (and therefore can be used to prevent) the likelihood of future negative safety incidents. Recent theory suggests that traditional lagging indicators also possess characteristics of leading indicators, and vice versa, however empirical evidence is limited. Method: The current research investigated the temporal relationships among establishment-level injuries, near misses, and fatal events using injury and employment data from a sample of 24,910 mining establishments over a 12-year period. Results: While controlling for employee hours worked, establishment-level reported injuries and near misses were associated with of future fatal events across the sample of mines and over the time period studied. Fatal events were also associated with increases in future reported near misses, providing evidence of a cyclic relationship between them. Discussion: These findings challenge the strict categorization of injuries, near misses, and fatal events as lagging indicators. Practical applications: Understanding the KPIs that should be used to manage organizational safety, and how they can be used, is of critical practical importance. The results of the current study suggest that, depending on several considerations, metrics tied to negative safety incidents may be used to anticipate, and possibly prevent, future negative safety events.     

Low rate releases of hazardous light gases under semi-confined geometry: A consequence based approach and case-study application

As evidenced by accident statistics, an important factor when considering the safe operation of process plants is the effective mitigation of the effects of gaseous flammable releases, either by a prevention, or a protection approach. A detailed historical analysis was performed considering accidental scenarios associated with the use and management of light gases, starting from raw data selected from FACTS database and analysed by a causal multi-layer method. Results revealed that the major part of the accidental releases involving methane, hydrogen, ethene, ammonia can be attributed to organizational or process/plant immediate causes. As expected, the most frequent scenarios following the release are fire and explosion. We focus our attention on the development of a short-cut method allowing preliminary evaluation of the maximum gaseous build-up under semi-confined conditions, limiting the effects of the fire/explosion scenario to a tolerable level. The limitations of the model that is applied to selected case-studies and require further experimental validation are critically discussed. The results of the application of the model, which can boast of being safe but not disproportionately conservative, can be set as a maximum threshold in proper designing technical measures aiming at limiting the effects to a tolerable level by protection methods, e.g. isolation, venting, suppression and containment.     

PDE accident model from a safety information perspective and its application to Zhangjiakou fire and explosion accident

Accident models can provide theoretical frameworks for determining the causes and mechanisms of accidents, and thus are theoretical bases for accident analysis and prevention. The role of safety information in accident causation is profound. Thus, safety information is an important and essential perspective for developing accident models. This study presents a new accident model developed from a safety information perspective, called the Prediction—Decision—Execution (PDE) accident model. Because the PDE accident model is an emerging accident model that was proposed in 2018, its analysis logic and viability remain to be discussed. Thus, the main contributions of this study include two aspects: (i) detailed explanation of the analysis logic of the PDE accident model, and (ii) case-study examination of the Zhangjiakou fire and explosion accident, a serious accident that occurred in China in 2018, to demonstrate the viability of the PDE accident model. Results show that this is a safety-information-driven accident model that can provide a new and effective methodology for accident analysis and prevention, and safety management.     

Accident consequence calculation of ammonia dispersion in factory area

With the widespread use of ammonia in the process industry, more and more accidents were caused by ammonia leakage and dispersion. The dispersion of ammonia is determined by its physical properties, release source conditions and atmospheric environment. Full-scale numerical simulation based on CFD theory was carried out to study the dispersion law of ammonia in a food factory. It was found that ammonia concentrated on the symmetric plane and showed an upward movement near the source. Moreover, the effect of pressure on the dispersion of ammonia was explored showing that the concentration of ammonia near the source increased with the increase of pressure, while the dispersion of ammonia far from the source is mainly influenced by wind field. Last but not the least, the dangerous area completely covers the obstacle region according to the harmful concentration, but the lethal concentration range and explosion range both only existed near the release source. Correspondingly, the concentration of ammonia in the region far from the symmetric plane can be regarded as a safe area. When the accident happens, one should stay away from the release source and evacuate towards the sides in a timely manner. We hope that this work can provide an effective method in predicting the impact of ammonia dispersion and can arouse concerns over the public safety.     

On the application of the window of opportunity and complex network to risk analysis of process plants operations during a pandemic

To quantify the pandemic specific impact with respect to the risk related to the chemical industry, a novel risk analysis method is proposed. The method includes three parts. Firstly, the two types of “window of opportunity” (WO) theory is proposed to divide an accident life cycle into two parts. Then, a qualitative risk analysis is conducted based on WO theory to determine possible risk factors, evolution paths and consequences. The third part is a quantitative risk analysis based on a complex network model, integrating two types of WO. The Fuzzy set theory is introduced to calculate the failure probabilities of risk factors and the concept of risk entropy is used to represent the uncertainty. Then the Dijkstra algorithm is used to calculate the shortest path and the corresponding probability of the accident. The proposed method is applied to the SCR denitrition liquid ammonia storage and transportation system. The results show that it is a comprehensive method of quantitative risk analysis and it is applicable to risk analysis during the pandemic.     

Explorative spatial analysis of traffic accident statistics and road mortality among the provinces of Turkey

Introduction

The aim of the study is to describe the inter-province differences in traffic accidents and mortality on roads of Turkey.

Method

Two different risk indicators were used to evaluate the road safety performance of the provinces in Turkey. These indicators are the ratios between the number of persons killed in road traffic accidents (1) and the number of accidents (2) (nominators) and their exposure to traffic risk (denominator). Population and the number of registered motor vehicles in the provinces were used as denominators individually. Spatial analyses were performed to the mean annual rate of deaths and to the number of fatal accidents that were calculated for the period of 2001-2006. Empirical Bayes smoothing was used to remove background noise from the raw death and accident rates because of the sparsely populated provinces and small number of accident and death rates of provinces. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were performed to show whether the provinces with high rates of deaths-accidents show clustering or are located closer by chance. The spatial distribution of provinces with high rates of deaths and accidents was nonrandom and detected as clustered with significance of P < 0.05 with spatial autocorrelation analyses.

Results

Regions with high concentration of fatal accidents and deaths were located in the provinces that contain the roads connecting the Istanbul, Ankara, and Antalya provinces. Accident and death rates were also modeled with some independent variables such as number of motor vehicles, length of roads, and so forth using geographically weighted regression analysis with forward step-wise elimination. The level of statistical significance was taken as P < 0.05. Large differences were found between the rates of deaths and accidents according to denominators in the provinces. The geographically weighted regression analyses did significantly better predictions for both accident rates and death rates than did ordinary least regressions, as indicated by adjusted R² values. Geographically weighted regression provided values of 0.89-0.99 adjusted R² for death and accident rates, compared with 0.88-0.95, respectively, by ordinary least regressions.

Impact on industry

Geographically weighted regression has the potential to reveal local patterns in the spatial distribution of rates, which would be ignored by the ordinary least regression approach. The application of spatial analysis and modeling of accident statistics and death rates at provincial level in Turkey will help to identification of provinces with outstandingly high accident and death rates. This could help more efficient road safety management in Turkey.     

高速公路交通安全影响因素分析

在分析我国高速公路交通安全现状的基础上,运用事故因果连锁论的原理,从人、车、道路环境、管理这四个方面,建立了高速公路交通事故致因模型,对影响高速公路交通安全的因素进行了探讨.高速公路交通安全影响因素分析为探究高速公路交通事故的发生规律和提高高速公路交通系统的安全性、可靠性,以及交通事故控制策略的制定提供了决策参考.     

Differences in urban and rural accident characteristics and medical service utilization for traffic fatalities in less-motorized societies

Introduction

Fatalities from traffic accidents in less-motorized societies are an important global issue. We aimed to characterize the geographic differences of fatalities in such societies to facilitate the development of targeted interventions.

Method

This study linked police reports, hospital data, and vital registration data from Taiwan with special reference to accident factors in pre-hospital deaths and medical care in hospital deaths.

Results

A higher percentage of pre-hospital deaths were observed following rural as compared to urban traffic accidents. The deaths due to rural accidents can be attributed to lower use of restraints (i.e., helmets or seat belts), lower percentage of motorcyclists, and more highway accidents. A higher percentage of victims in rural accidents were transported to distant medical centers rather than to local hospitals.

Conclusion

Specific interventions, such as intelligent emergency medical systems, campaigns for helmets and seat belt usage, enforcement of helmets and seat belt use, and speed control measures should be targeted to rural areas.

Impact on industry

Cooperation between the vehicle industry and emergency medical providers in rural traffic accident rescue teams may decrease the numbers of deaths in these regions.     

Investigation of head injuries by reconstructions of real-world vehicle-versus-adult-pedestrian accidents

A sizeable proportion of adult pedestrians involved in vehicle-versus-pedestrian accidents suffer head injuries, some of which can lead to lifelong disability or even death. To understand head injury mechanisms, in-depth accident analyses and accident reconstructions were conducted. A total of 120 adult pedestrian accident cases from the GIDAS (German in-depth accident study) database were analyzed, from which 10 were selected for reconstruction. Accident reconstructions initially were performed using multi-body system (MBS) pedestrian and car models, so as to calculate head impact conditions, like head impact velocity, head position and head orientation. These impact conditions then were used to set the initial conditions in a simulation of a head striking a windshield, using finite element (FE) head and windshield models. The intracranial pressure and stress distributions of the FE head model were calculated and correlated with injury outcomes. Accident analysis revealed that the windshield and its surrounding frames were the main sources of head injury for adult pedestrians. Reconstruction results indicated that coup/contrecoup pressure, Von Mises and shear stress were important physical parameters to estimate brain injury risks.     

Flixborough: A final footnote

The Flixborough explosion was the largest-ever peacetime explosion in the UK. There were 28 fatalities as well as near-complete destruction on the 24 ha plant. An official Court of Inquiry was immediately established and charged with the responsibility of determining the cause(s) of the disaster and the lessons to be learnt. Reviews are made here of the evidence and arguments behind an alleged 8 in initiation to the event and briefly that of the Court's determination of failure—the simultaneous failure of two 28 in bellows attached to a temporary 20 in dog-leg pipe bridge. Both cases are seen as flawed. The only credible hypothesis appears to be one that involved the failure, most probably by fatigue, of only one of the two bellows attached to the dog-leg—this then buckled, sealing the lower reactor. The dog-leg later collapsed by the blast. This process resulted in a much smaller explosive release than either alternate hypothesis and thus may have consequences for reportable inventories and process safety. The investigation employs NIST FDS CFD analyses of the potential releases, fires and their influence.