Backcasting — a framework for strategic planning

Backcasting is a planning methodology that is particularly helpful when problems at hand are complex and when present trends are part of the problems. When applied in planning towards sustainability, backcasting can increase the likelihood of handling the ecologically complex issues in a systematic and coordinated way, and also to foresee certain changes, even from a self-beneficial point of view, of the market and increase the chances of a relatively strong economic performance. To that end, backcasting should be performed from a set of non-overlapping principles that are general enough to be helpful in the coordination of different sectors of society and in business, as well as to cover relevant aspects of sustainability. Such principles are helpful when developing reliable non-overlapping indicators for monitoring of the development when coordinating various measures from different sectors of the society or within individual firms with each other, and when handling trade-offs in a relevant way. Furthermore, the transition can benefit from being undertaken in a strategic step-by-step manner, by which such investments search for those that combine two qualities: (i) technical flexibility to serve as platforms for future investments in line with non-overlapping principles of sustainability, and (ii) good possibilities of giving relatively fast return on investment. This framework for planning is developed together with the Natural Step, a non-government organization, and in collaboration with a network of scientists and business. Examples are given from firms applying the framework.     

品牌认证对果农线上销售的影响研究——基于线性回归与PSM方法

基于江西省379份果农的实地调研数据,运用线性回归和倾向得分匹配法检验了品牌认证对果农线上销售的影响。结果表明:①获得“三品一标”认证和注册农产品商标对线上销售均具有显著正向影响,但注册农产品商标的影响效果更明显。②电商经验、鲜果经营培训、品牌建设支持和当地快递公司数对线上销售呈正向影响,而果农年龄和果园距最近快递集散点的距离抑制了线上销售比例的提升。基于研究结论,提出政府应积极引导果农进行品牌认证,加强认证后的监督管理,提高果农品牌保护意识,鼓励果农积极主动注册农产品商标,促使果农线上销售显著提升。     

对菏泽地区百年一遇暴雨成灾的反思

本文针对菏泽地区1993年遭遇百年一遇暴雨成灾的现实,客观地反映了灾情,分析了成灾的主要原因,并提出了防御对策。     

重点行业差别化环境准入政策路径研究

“三线一单”即生态保护红线、环境质量底线、资源利用上线和环境准入负面清单,是以改善环境质量为目标,积极落实生态文明体制改革要求,深化环评制度改革的一项重点工作。本文根据“三线一单”的分区管控体系,以重点管控单元和一般管控单元为基础,结合行业发展特征、管控单元突出环境问题,以问题为导向,以环境质量改善为目标,制定了重点行业差别化环境准入政策研究路径,开展了四川省白酒行业污染物排放管控差别化环境准入政策制定案例分析,并从前期会商、强化保障、动态完善、深入研究四个方面提出政策实施和完善的建议。     

The ecological footprint from a systems perspective of sustainability

Summary

The Ecological Footprint (EF) is a method for estimating the biologically productive area necessary to support current consumption patterns, given prevailing technical and economic processes. By comparing human impact with the planet's limited bioproductive area. this method tests a basic ecological condition for sustainability. The ecological footprint has gained popularity for its pedagogical strength as it expresses the results of its analysis in spatial units that can easily be communicated. Many EF estimates have been performed on a global, national and sulrnationallevel. In this paper. we review the method and critically assess it from a sustainability perspective based on first order principles. We examine: ? Which aspects of sustainability are already covered by existing EF assessments;

? Which further aspects ofsustainability could be made accountable through the EF (such as areas needed to assimilate waste streams that are not yet accounted for in present assessments); and

? Those aspects ofsustainability that cannot be accountable through the EF. Thereby needing complimentary auditing tools.

Since the EF is a measure of renewable biocapacity, we argue that some dimensions of ecological sustainability should not be included in the EF. These include human activities that should be phased out to obtain sustainability, such as emissions of persistent compounds foreign to nature and qualitative aspects that represent secondary uses of ecological areas and do not, therefore, occupy a clearly identifiable additional ecological space. We also conclude that the EF is useful for documenting the overall human use or abuse of the potentially renewable functions and services of nature. Particularly, by aggregating in a consistentway a varity of human impacts, it can effectively identify the scale of the human economy by companson with the size of the biosphere.     

提升“三线一单”中生态环境准入清单有效性的若干建议

生态环境准入清单是“三线一单”的成果出口，是未来落实空间环境管控和准入的直接依据，也是提升“三线一单”有效落地实施的重要抓手，要达到适用、实用、管用的要求。通过总结梳理当前已发布和编制中的生态环境准入清单情况，本文发现各省（区、市）在构建生态环境准入清单分层体系、制定“三线—单元—清单”逻辑链条和解决区域重点环境问题中形成了较好的经验，但同时生态环境准入清单在编制和应用中还存在各层次缺乏连通、管控单元和清单要求之间存在逻辑偏差、对主要环境问题研判不够和缺乏针对性整改措施等难点与问题。结合各省（区、市）编制组在清单编制中的有效做法和经验，本文建议在下一步清单细化和优化工作中，首先要加强与各职能部门、管理部门的对接；其次要坚持问题导向，结合区域实际情况，以精细化管理的目标制定针对性的清单措施与要求；最后开展成果的实践应用试点，总结经验，进一步提升清单有效性。     

万元产值废水排放量的GTPM（1）模型步长指数变换建模方法研究

在万元产值废水排放量这类环境系统中，既有单调递增或单调递减的单调系统，也有前期单调递增后期单调递减的非单调系统。本文研究提出的ＧＴＰＭ（１）步长指数变换建模方法，对于前增后减的非单调系统是非常有效的。应用实例表明，此方法不仅为一控制开辟新途径，也进一步拓宽了灰色预测方法在环境系统中的应用范围。     

一种提高模锻模寿命的有效方法——正确选择模锻工步

此文分析了模锻模失效的主要原因及其预防措施,着重论述模锻工步的选择对锻模寿命的影响。     

铸钢水爆废水处理与综合利用

论述了国内首例一步净化器处理铸钢水爆废水与综合利用的工艺原理、监测数据分析。对该工艺采用废水资源化“全过程控制、总量控制、分散与集中相结合”的处理方法给于肯定。并对该处理工艺的运行效果、经济技术分析作出了客观的评价。     

西南水闸的改建方案对下游水体水质影响研究

西南涌属于北江下游大堤左岸的分洪河道。西南水闸重建后,通过调节西南水闸闸孔的开度,引入北江水进行河涌整治,将导致西南涌上游污染物向下游迁移,但涨潮时须关闸门,不让污染较严重的西南涌水进入北江。由于下游珠江口河水的上溯,上下游河水交汇处河水流速最小,污染物的交换能力最弱,导致污染物的最大浓度沉积。本研究将应用珠江口一维感潮河网模型,从水环境效果的角度出发,模拟分析在水环境容量较小的平、枯水期,不同的引水方案对水质的影响程度,提出最佳引水方案和河涌整治措施建议。