A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

碱矿渣胶凝材料固化重金属污泥的研究

主要原材料为高炉矿渣的碱矿渣胶凝材料(HAS)、掺3%沸石的HAS、掺5%沸石的HAS、水泥等4种固化材料被用来固化人工合成含铅、镉、铬等重金属的污泥。污泥固化体中污泥与固化材的掺和比例为4:1。实验结果表明,HAS固化剂对重金属污泥的固化效果要好于水泥,其污泥固化体的无侧限抗压强度高于水泥固化体,同时其固化体的重金属浸出量明显低于水泥。沸石的掺入使HAS固化体的重金属浸出量减小,且随着沸石掺加量的增大,HAS固化体的重金属浸出量相应的减少。     

Triterpenoid and caffeic acid derivatives in the leaves of ragweed, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ambrosia artemisiifolia</Emphasis> L. (Asterales: Asteraceae), as feeding stimulants of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ophraella communa</Emphasis> LeSage (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

Summary. The leaf beetle Ophraella communa infests almost exclusively Ambrosia artemisiifolia in the fields of Japan, even though it normally feeds on several Asteraceous plants. A filter paper bioassay showed that the feeding of O. communa is strongly stimulated by methanolic extracts of A. artemisiifolia. The feeding stimulants for O. communa have been isolated from methanolic extracts of A. artemisiifolia. -Amyrin acetate, -amyrin acetate, 5-caffeoylquinic acid (chlorogenic acid) and 3,5-dicaffeoylquinic acid from A. artemisiifolia have been identified as feeding stimulants for O. communa. Triterpenoid derivatives (-amyrin acetate or -amyrin acetate) and caffeic acid derivatives (3, 5-dicaffoylquinic acid or 5-caffeoylquinic acid) showed feeding stimulant activity when mixed together.     

Soil Lead at Elementary Public Schools: Comparison Between School Properties and Residential Neighbourhoods of New Orleans

Soil studies, conducted in Maryland, Minnesota and Louisiana, have described the urban pattern of lead contamination. They have shown that the highest amounts of lead cluster within the interior of the largest cities. The results of the New Orleans urban patterns of distribution of soil lead provided the basis for further study. The hypothesis was tested that elementary school properties have the same pattern of soil lead contamination as their neighbouring residential communities. Thirty New Orleans Public Elementary Schools were selected for this study. Surface samples (2.5cm or 1 inch depth) were collected from playgrounds and next to entrances of each school. Results showed that soil lead on school properties follows the same relative contamination patterns (pvalue10^–5) as soil lead on residential properties of neighbouring communities. Schools however, have significantly lower lead contamination than the neighbouring residential properties. Innercity school properties present a higher risk of soil lead exposure than mid and outercity schools. Soils next to innercity school entrances showed the highest lead, with 18.5% having concentrations over 400gg^–1. Systematic landscaping around the school entrances would significantly reduce the hazard from lead dust contaminated soils.     

Distribution of Poly(β-propiolactone) Aerobic Degrading Microorganisms in Different Environments

The distribution of degading microorganisms of high molecular weight poly(-propiolactone) (PPL), whose individual structural units are similar to those of poly(-hydroxybutyrate) (PHB) and poly(€-caprolactone) (PCL), was examined. Despite the fact that PPL is a chemosynthetic polymer, many kinds of PPL-degrading microorganisms were found to be distributed as resident populations widely in natural environments. A total of 77 strains of PPL-degrading microorganisms was isolated. From standard physiological and biochemical tests, at least 41 strains were referred to as Bacillus species. Microbial degradation of fibrous PPL proceeded rapidly in some enrichment cultures but was not as complete as that of PHB. Most of the isolated PPL-degrading microorganisms were determined to be PCL degraders and/or PHB degraders. Therefore, it can be assumed that mostly PPL is recognized by the microorganisms as PHB or another natural substrate of the same type as which PCL is regarded. Microbial degradation of PPL was confirmed by some Bacillus strains from type culture collections. The similarity of microbial degradation between PPL and PCL was found to be very close.     

ECONOMIC AND WATER QUALITY EFFECTS OF VARIABLE AND UNIFORM APPLICATION OF NITROGEN1

ABSTRACT: Nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates for achieving optimum crop yields often vary within a field due to spatial variability in soil moisture and nitrogen content and other crop growth factors. When there is substantial within-field variability in these factors, uniform application of N (UAN) may not be economically efficient in terms of maximizing net return because N is likely to be over-applied in some areas and under-applied in other areas of the field. In addition, over-application can adversely affect water quality. A sample of fields in a Midwestern agricultural watershed is used to test for statistically significant differences in N application rates, crop yields, surface and ground water quality and net returns between UAN and variable application of N (VAN) for four cropping systems. Profitability and water quality benefits of VAN are sensitive to the distribution of soil types within a field. Water quality effects and profitability of UAN and VAN vary with cropping systems. VAN is not uniformly superior to UAN in terms of increasing net returns and improving water quality for the farming systems and watershed evaluated in this study.     

NONLINEAR MODELING AND PREDICTION OF A RIVER FLOW SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: Model estimation and prediction of a river flow system are investigated using nonlinear system identification techniques. We demonstrate how the dynamics of the system, rainfall, and river flow can be modeled using NARMAX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenuous input) models. The parameters of the model are estimated using an orthogonal least squares algorithm with intelligent structure detection. The identification of the nonlinear model is described to represent the relationship between local rainfall and river flow at Enoree station (inputs) and river flow at Whitmire (output) for a river flow system in South Carolina.     

水质对UV/H_2O_2降解2,4-二氯酚的影响

研究了UV/H2O2工艺对2,4-二氯酚(2,4-DCP)的去除效果和水中阴离子、腐殖酸对该工艺降解2,4-DCP的影响。结果表明:UV/H2O2工艺可以有效的去除水中2,4-DCP,光降解过程符合一级反应动力学模型;在H2O2投加量为8mg/L,1个30W低压汞灯照射下,2,4-DCP在蒸馏水和自来水中光降解速率常数分别为0.0232/min和0.0162/min;NO3-、Cl-、HCO3-对2,4-DCP光降解有抑制作用;当3种离子浓度为0.5mmol/L、10mmol/L、20mmol/L时,对2,4-DCP光降解的抑制程度为HCO3->NO3->Cl-;随着离子浓度增大,抑制作用增强;自来水中的光降解速率常数低于蒸馏水中的光降解速率常数是由于水中多种离子影响的结果;腐殖酸在低浓度时,促进光降解反应的进行,在高浓度时,2,4-DCP的光降解氧化受到抑制。     

CH_4火焰中CO_2对NO行为影响的实验研究

针对CH4 火焰中CO2 浓度对于NO降解的影响进行了详细地分析研究。结果表明 :过量空气系数对于NO的降解有着很大的影响。和氧化性气氛相比 ,还原性气氛更有利于NO的降解。同时还原性气氛中CO2 的存在降低了NO的降解率 ,而氧化性气氛中CO2 的存在能够促进NO的降解。在还原性气氛中 ,随着CO2 浓度的升高 ,其继续减少NO降解率的作用也越来越不明显     

多环芳烃的零阶价分子连接性指数与正-辛醇/水分配系数

本文建立了准确预测多环芳烃(PAHs)及其烷基衍生物的正-辛醇/水分配系数(Kow)模型。模型表明PAHs的分配性质可用零阶价分子连接性指数(~°x~v)描述,~°x~v数值与PAHs的logKow成正比。应用本模型可以预测大范围PAHs的logKow值。