Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modelling in an individual based context—Consequences of parameter variability

Toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models simulate the time-course of toxicant concentration in the organism and toxicity at the level of the organism. A link between TKTD models that simulate survival and individual based models for populations (IBMs) is proposed which allows TKTD parameters to vary between individuals. The TKTD-IBM predicts different survival in response to toxicants when TKTD parameters vary amongst individuals compared to the survival predicted with fixed TKTD parameters. The model with fixed parameters represents the concept of stochastic death whereas the model with variable parameters behaves, at least partly, according to the individual tolerance distribution concept. The whole set of TKTD parameters of an individual can be interpreted as constituting “individual tolerance”.     

Effectiveness of Marine Protected Areas in the Philippines for Biodiversity Conservation

Abstract: Quantifying the extent to which existing reserves meet conservation objectives and identifying gaps in coverage are vital to developing systematic protected‐area networks. Despite widespread recognition of the Philippines as a global priority for marine conservation, limited work has been undertaken to evaluate the conservation effectiveness of existing marine protected areas (MPAs). Targets for MPA coverage in the Philippines have been specified in the 1998 Fisheries Code legislation, which calls for 15% of coastal municipal waters (within 15 km of the coastline) to be protected within no‐take MPAs, and the Philippine Marine Sanctuary Strategy (2004), which aims to protect 10% of coral reef area in no‐take MPAs by 2020. We used a newly compiled database of nearly 1000 MPAs to measure progress toward these targets. We evaluated conservation effectiveness of MPAs in two ways. First, we determined the degree to which marine bioregions and conservation priority areas are represented within existing MPAs. Second, we assessed the size and spacing patterns of reserves in terms of best‐practice recommendations. We found that the current extent and distribution of MPAs does not adequately represent biodiversity. At present just 0.5% of municipal waters and 2.7–3.4% of coral reef area in the Philippines are protected in no‐take MPAs. Moreover, 85% of no‐take area is in just two sites; 90% of MPAs are <1 km². Nevertheless, distances between existing MPAs should ensure larval connectivity between them, providing opportunities to develop regional‐scale MPA networks. Despite the considerable success of community‐based approaches to MPA implementation in the Philippines, this strategy will not be sufficient to meet conservation targets, even under a best‐case scenario for future MPA establishment. We recommend that implementation of community‐based MPAs be supplemented by designation of additional large no‐take areas specifically located to address conservation targets.     

Living at the Edge: Local versus Positional Factors in the Long‐Term Population Dynamics of an Endangered Orchid

Abstract: Populations at the margin of geographic ranges of distribution have been considered more vulnerable than central ones, but recent reviews have caste doubt on this generalization. We examined the reproductive and demographic performance of a rare Euroasiatic orchid (Cypripedium calceolus) at its southwesterly range limit and compared our findings with those of previous studies of nine central populations at the center of the orchid's range. We sought to test the central‐marginal model and to evaluate factors involved in long‐term performance of forest Eurosiberian species with peripheral populations in southern European mountains. We characterized (structure, temporal fluctuations, herbivory, reproductive success, and recruitment at different habitats) four Pyrenean populations of C. calceolus of different sizes (5–3500 ramets) and monitored three of them for up to 13 years. Two quantitative stochastic models (count data and matrix models) were used to assess population trends and viability and the effect of herbivory. Contrary to expectations, and despite the negative effect of sporadic events of herbivory, the peripheral populations we studied (except the smallest one) performed similarly or better than populations occurring in central part of the species’ range in terms of reproductive success and population growth rates. Landscape changes over the last 50 years suggest that natural reforestation could be involved in the success of this plant at its southern limit. Forest expansion in the mountain regions of southern Europe may provide new opportunities for plants with geographic distributions centered mainly at higher latitudes and give some hope for their recovery in future scenarios dominated by biodiversity loss.     

Definition and calculation of uncertainty in ecological process models

We present a method of multi-criteria assessment for the analysis of process model uncertainty that combines analysis of model structure, parameters and data requirements. There are three components in calculation and definition of uncertainty.

(1)

Assessment criteria: Uncertainty in a process model is reduced as the model can simultaneously simulate an increased number of assessment criteria selected to test specific aspects of the theory being investigated, and within acceptable limits set for those criteria. This reduces incomplete specification of the model—the characteristic that a model may explain some, but not all, of the observed features of a phenomenon. The calculation required is computation of the Pareto set which provides the list of simultaneously achieved criteria within specified ranges.     

资源型城市可持续竞争力的培育--以山西省大同市为例

首先对我国资源型城市的倒“U”型发展现象进行解析,接着分析了我国资源型城市存在的主要问题,并对资源型城市的可持续竞争力构建进行了概述,然后通过案例分析的方式,分析了资源型城市在同等规模城市中的可持续竞争能力。最后根据资源型城市的类型分别提出了培育其城市可持续竞争力的对策。     

粉煤灰基陶瓷微滤膜处理水中悬浮物的抗污染特性

粉煤灰基陶瓷微滤膜是一种新型的廉价无机膜,为研究其抗污染性能,研究了自制的管式膜在处理几种典型料液中的分离性能和渗透性能.考察了过滤不同料液过程中的阻力构成和膜的抗污染特性,并且和文献报道的同类过程中其他膜材料的性能进行了比较.实验进行了2~45 h无反冲、无清洗的连续运行.在过滤粉煤灰悬浮液、高龄土悬浮液和斜生栅藻悬浮液过程中,截留率可以达到100%,过滤阻力低于类似条件下的其他膜材料,在长时间运行后仍能保持较高的通量,表现出良好的抗污染性能.在过滤活性污泥时,截留率达到99.8%,单位压力下过滤通量达到1 170 L/(m·h·MPa).和其他膜材料相比,单位压力下的过滤通量表现出明显的优势.     

Performance and Environmental Impact of Biodegradable Films in Agriculture: A Field Study on Protected Cultivation

The performance, the degradability in soil and the environmental impact of biodegradable starch-based soil mulching and low tunnel films were assessed by means of field and laboratory tests. The lifetime of the biodegradable mulches was 9 months and of the biodegradable low-tunnel films 6 months. The radiometric properties of the biodegradable films influenced positively the microclimate: air temperature under the biodegradable low tunnel films was 2 °C higher than under the low density polyethylene films, resulting in an up to 20% higher yield of strawberries. At the end of the cultivation period, the biodegradable mulches were broken up and buried in the field soil together with the plant residues. One year after burial, less than 4% of the initial weight of the biodegradable film was found in the soil. According to ecotoxicity tests, the kinetic luminescent bacteria test with Vibrio fischeri and the Enchytraeus albidus ISO/CD 16387 reproduction potential, there was no evidence of ecotoxicity in the soil during the biodegradation process. Furthermore, there was no change in the diversity of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria in the soil determined on the basis of the appearance of amoA gene diversity in denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis.     

紫外光芬顿+EM菌高效脱氮组合工艺在垃圾渗滤液膜浓缩液处理的中试应用

针对垃圾渗滤液膜浓缩液中有机物成分复杂、难以降解的特点,采用UV-Fenton催化氧化+EM菌(有效微生物菌群)高效生物脱氮组合工艺开展连续120 d的中试实验,考察了组合工艺中各处理单元对浓缩液中COD、TN和NH₃-N的去除效果。结果表明,组合工艺运行稳定,对COD、TN和NH₃-N的去除率分别达到95.2%、90%和95%,出水各项指标均能满足《生活垃圾填埋场污染控制标准》(GB 16889-2008)排放要求。结合紫外可见光谱、三维激发-发射光谱和气相色谱-质谱实验结果,UV-Fenton催化氧化可使浓缩液中含有共轭键有机物的芳香结构在较大程度上被破坏,分子质量聚合度大幅降低,从而将腐殖质以及可见光区富里酸等难降解的大分子有机物降解为小分子,从而提高可生化性。后续的EM菌高效生物脱氮单元基于硝化反硝化,可以进一步高效去除NH₃-N和TN。     

煤质炭制备条件的优化及对酚类吸附性能与吸附动力学

KOH为活化剂,正交实验方法优化了煤质炭的制备条件。对2种酚类有机物苯酚、氯苯酚进行了静态吸附,观察了温度、时间、初始浓度及投加量对吸附性能的影响,优化了吸附条件。实验数据与Langmuir、Freundlich和Temkin吸附等温线进行了拟合,并对准一级、准二级动力学模型和内扩散模型拟合。结果表明,优化得煤质炭制备条件为:碱碳质量比3:1,浸泡时间12 h,活化时间80 min,活化温度800℃。在温度为25℃,投加量为0.05 g时,苯酚的平衡时间为60 min,初始浓度为200 mg/L时的吸附量为58.89 mg/g;氯苯酚的吸附平衡时间为90 min,初始浓度为300 mg/L时的吸附量为84.32 mg/g。煤质炭对苯酚的吸附过程与Langmuir吸附等温线,氯苯酚的吸附过程与Temkin吸附等温线拟合得较好。二级动力学模型能够较好地描述这2个吸附过程,且颗粒内扩散不是唯一的速率控制步骤。