Movement distances enhance validity of predictive models

Including the distance species are able to move in predictive models improves conservation practice. Bird inventory projects carried out from 1993 to 2004 in Taiwan provide an opportunity to investigate the relationships among species distribution, movement distance, and the environment. We compared projected distributions of 17 Taiwanese endemic bird species using what we called the Standard Method (i.e. movement distance is zero) and what we called the Buffer Method (i.e. movement distance is longer than zero) in three presence-only models (GARP, MAXENT and LIVES). The Standard Method used species original occurrence records directly while the Buffer Method expanded the occurrence of species to areas 1 km² around each recorded location. We first tested the efficacy of the Buffer Method using ten common species of the 17, and then applied the method to two rare species of the 17. For both the common and rare species, the distributions predicted by the two methods showed slight but important differences. The Buffer Method for all species had a higher average predictive probability, while the Standard Method had a higher maximum predictive probability. Most of the values for the area under the curve (AUC) were over 0.8 with the exceptions of Taiwan Barbet (Megalaima nuchalis) and Taiwan Hwamei (Garrulax taewanus), which have recently separated from Indochinese Barbet (Megalaima annamensis) and Chinese Hwamei (Garrulax canorus), and since 2008 and 2006 have been regarded as species endemic to the study area. Kappa values showed good performance for all species using both methods. The Buffer Method, however, resulted in significantly higher sensitivity and accuracy values for all models of species (p < 0.05). We conclude that when modeling species distribution including the area where the species was censused along with areas within the minimum movement areas better defines the surrounding areas that might supplement core habitat requirements. Therefore, using the Buffer Method, species surrounding distribution can be obtained which provides a better understanding of the species distributions. Given that distribution size is a key to the conservation of species, we suggest the Buffer Method can be used in conservation planning.     

Estimating the vulnerability of fifteen tree species under changing climate in Northwest North America

In the Pacific northwestern (PNW) region of North America, climatic conditions have significantly warmed since a predominantly cool phase of the Pacific North American circulation patterns between 1950 and 1975. What are the implications of this shift in climate for the vulnerability of native tree species? To address this question, we combined mechanistic and statistical models to assess where a variety of native tree species might be more vulnerable within their recorded ranges and where they might potentially migrate. For long-lived species that are well adapted to compete, seasonal differences in photosynthesis and water use offer insights helpful in predicting their distributions. To evaluate the general response of conifers to climatic variation across the region, we previously applied a process-based model (3-PG), to simulate the growth and maximum leaf area index that Douglas-fir could attain within recognized forested areas. We then constructed automated decision tree models to define and map the ecological distributions of 15 tree species based on differences in how photosynthesis was constrained by drought, daytime temperatures, high evaporative demand, and the frequency of frost. For the baseline climate period (1950-1975), the decision tree models predicted presence and absence of each species at ∼23,000 observations with an average accuracy of 81%, with an average kappa statistic of 0.74. In this paper the same models were run annually for the period between 1976 and 2006 for each species, and the areas defined as remaining suitable or becoming vulnerable to disturbance were identified based on whether more or less than half of the years fell within the originally defined limits. Based on these criteria, 70% of the species recorded ranges remained suitable, with 30% deemed vulnerable. Results varied notably by species with western red cedar and western hemlock remaining highly adapted, with potential for range expansion in area of up to 50% relative to the baseline period. In contrast, ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine, grand, and noble fir were classified as vulnerable with potential net contractions in their ranges. The analysis was extended through the rest of the 21st century using climatic projections from the Canadian global circulation model with a high fossil fuel emission scenario (A2) and compared to other previously published species range predictions.     

祁连山青海云杉群落物种组成及α多样性垂直分布

通过对祁连山自然保护区青海云杉群落物种组成及α多样性垂直分布格局的研究,结果表明：祁连山自然保护区青海云杉群落内有维管植物25科51属96种,其中乔木4种,灌木29种,草本62种;植物种相对集中分布于海拔2 680～2 890 m的阴坡;随海拔梯度升高,群落内植物种数减少,且相邻样地的共有种数呈不明显的先减少而后增加的趋势,Margalef指数、Shannon-Wiener指数和Pielou指数呈降低趋势;不同林型的植物种的丰富度依次为：青海云杉混交林〉草类-青海云杉林〉苔藓-青海云杉林〉灌木-青海云杉林〉马先蒿-青海云杉林。     

黄河口潮间带表层沉积物重金属和营养元素的分布特征

于2010年5月采集了5个断面的黄河口潮间带高、中和低潮滩的表层沉积物样品,对沉积物的理化性质、重金属和营养元素的空间分布特征进行了研究,并采用单因子污染指数法和综合潜在生态风险指数法,参考加拿大安大略省环境和能源部关于沉积物质量指南,对黄河口潮间带沉积物质量进行了评价。结果表明,除Cu和Pb外,其它重金属和营养元素质量分数均表现为河口北侧高于南侧;除Hg外,高、中和低潮滩的表层沉积物重金属和营养元素质量分数无显著差异,没有表现出成熟潮滩明显的垂岸分带特征。Pb质量分数高于渤海表层沉积物的高值,是该区域的首要污染因子;Hg在河口北侧近河口的两个站位低潮滩质量分数达到海洋沉积物质量一类标准的1.7和1.8倍,存在一定的潜在生态风险;TN和TOC质量分数范围在安全级别,TP质量分数在20%的站位超过最低安全级别,存在一定的安全风险。与国内其它潮滩相比,黄河口潮间带重金属Zn、Cd、Hg和As的质量分数处于较低水平,Cu和Pb质量分数处于中等水平,TOC和TP质量分数与长江口潮间带相当,TN质量分数较低。研究结果将为黄河三角洲地区生态保护、环境管理和污染治理提供基础数据。     

地形地貌对豫东平原浅层高氟地下水分布的控制

氟是人体内所必须的微量元素,但过多的摄入会引发氟中毒.豫东平原在全国来说是个氟中毒严重的地区,高氟水分布范围广,背景值高,当地居民往往通过饮用浅层地下水而导致氟中毒.浅层高氟水的分布总体上呈由西北向东南逐渐增多的态势,而局域的地形地貌使得高氟水的分布呈现出斑状、条带状的形态.一般来说,洼地有利于高氟水的富集.     

Bradford法测定土壤球囊霉素相关蛋白的影响因子

土壤球囊霉素相关蛋白(glomalin-related soil protein,GRSP)是评价土壤健康的重要指标。研究了土样粒径、贮存条件和高温提取后离心延误时间3个影响因子对采用Bradford法测定GRSP含量的作用效果。结果表明,土样粒径对易提取GRSP(EEG)的提取测定影响显著,过0.074 mm孔径筛土样中提取出的EEG含量高于过0.149、0.25、1 mm孔径筛的土样;总GRSP(TG)含量的测定结果对土样粒径的变化没有明显响应,测定TG含量可采用过1 mm孔径筛的土样。贮存条件影响EEG和TG含量的测定,有机质含量低的土样室温保存18个月条件下测得的EEG含量低于-20℃保存条件下;有机质含量高的土样室温保存条件下测得的EEG含量高于-20℃保存条件下;室温保存条件下3个有机质含量水平的土样TG含量均高于-20℃保存条件下。不同样品保存方式间3个有机质含量水平的土样EEG或TG含量差异均显著。为减小有机质降解等的影响,宜低温保存土样。提取后延误离心将导致EEG含量测定值降低,因此延误时间以控制在1 h之内为宜;离心延误2 h内不同延误时间之间测得的TG含量无显著差异。     

Inverse calculation approaches for source determination in hazardous chemical releases

Source determination is vital in decision making and emergency planning involving hazardous chemical releases. This work was concentrated on inverse calculation approaches for source determination as well as current trends and future perspectives. In this paper, these different approaches are reviewed by dividing them into two categories: probability modeling methods and optimization modeling methods. The traits of these approaches are comparatively analyzed. Then it is shown how these approaches behave when applied to practical cases, and their feasibility, applicability, stability, and limitation in determining the location and strength are presented. It is argued that when experimenting with potential terrorist attacks involving hazardous chemical releases, observation points should be around the main line of the downwind direction when the source is known; while the uniform distribution of observation points is an efficient solution for unknown incidents. Probability modeling methods are demonstrated to be insufficient during emergency responses due to their lacking of enough prior information of unknown parameters, while optimization modeling methods are efficient and become a new trend in source determination. Findings reflect an urgent need for the development of high-accuracy detectors and further research of data transmission techniques in order to ensure the validity of these approaches.     

阳宗海表层沉积物磷、氟、硫的分布与污染状况

对阳宗海表层沉积物中磷、氟、硫的含量进行了调查,并用单指标标准指数法对污染水平进行了评价.结果表明,阳宗海表层沉积物磷、氟、硫含量的平均值依次为1 041 mg/kg、1 075 mg/kg、2 743 mg/kg.生活、生产污水、工业废气,以及机动船只、网箱养鱼等活动是阳宗海表层沉积物中磷、氟、硫的主要来源.磷、氟、...     

鞍山市TSP及PM10相关性分析研究

分别在冬季及夏季选取具有典型气候特性的天气,采集空气中TSP和PM10.根据采样前、后滤膜重量之差及采样标况体积,计算TSP质量浓度,分析了TSP和PM10在大气中污染状况,研究了TSP和PM10的相关性及PM10占TSP的比例,并得出结论:在冬、夏二季TSP和PM10的浓度值变化趋势非常相似,在冬季时TSP和PM10...