江淮流域大洪水的因子分析及成因链初步构造

结合 1998年长江流域的特大洪水 ,提出了洪水成因链的概念 ,分析了各个物理因子对江淮洪水的影响。指出影响江淮洪水的物理因子都是层层相接、环环相扣的 ,它们组成了一个互相联系、互为因果的洪水成因链。成因链上物理因子之间的正反馈作用和消长作用 ,导致成因链上各个因子的致洪理论都不能完全地自圆其说 ,因而也无法完全确定地用于洪水预测。只有深入探讨洪水成因链上物理因子之间的正反馈作用和消长作用 ,对它们进行全面综合的诊断分析 ,才能提高江淮洪水预测的准确率。     

区域大气环境容量与基础工业布局研究──以镇江为例

大气环境容量是工业布局的影响因素之一。基于大气科学理论及运筹学的线性优化，创建了一个由三维中央尺度风场动力学模式、三维大气扩散数值模式及线性优化容量模式构成的动态优化区域大气环境容量模拟系统，并用该系统就镇江市区的大气环境容量及各污染源的最优排污量进行了计算，由此对镇江市现有重点污染企业的最优排污量及发展提出意见，并对未来基础工业的布局提供依据。该模拟系统具有普适性，故只要收集到模式所需要的长江沿岸地区的地理、气象及污染源资料，即可计算沿江地区的大气环境容量及基础工业企业的布局与规模，为长江产业带建设提供科学依据。     

长江流域可持续发展综合分析与评价

本文分析了长江流域经济社会发展的基本态势以及存在的问题 ,研究了流域可持续发展中的资源环境因素 ,并且提出了进行流域可持续发展评价的指标体系以及评价方法 ,对近年来长江流域各地区可持续发展状况分别进行了评价 ,并在此基础上 ,提出了促进长江流域可持续发展的主要对策措施     

淮河流域人地系统的自组织分析

本文从系统论的角度出发 ,从组织序变、耗散结构、协同互补、系统演化的动力机制等方面分析了淮河流域人地系统的优化、平衡及有效调控机理 ,为实现淮河流域的可持续发展提供理论依据 ,并提出了提高系统的自组织能力、激活系统的动力机制的战略举措     

长江三角洲大都市周边地区城市定位研究——以苏州、南通为例

本文以大都市理论和区位理论为基础 ,从区域分工与协作的角度 ,探讨了在经济全球化和市场一体化背景下 ,上海大都市周边的大城市苏州和南通未来发展的城市定位以及实现定位的途径 ,为长江三角洲都市连绵区诸城市之间的协调发展提供借鉴。     

Investment and future mineral production

The author reviews recent estimates of world resources and reserves and notes that reserves tend to grow with mineral consumption. Legal and economic constraints to the extraction of minerals are at least as important as physical availability. The author also points out that there is far more investment in minerals (government induced investment, companies diversifying into mining, etc) than some commentators suggest. However, the large mining projects of the 1960s belong to the past, and supplies of minerals may well become tight if there is a concerted economic boom.     

松花江干流洪水与1998年松嫩大水分析--发生规律及成因

松花江干流洪水的发生有24年和3～4年变化周期.洪水出现有明显的阶段性,在上世纪可分为4段1911-1914;1930-1940;1954-1958;1984-1998年.随着时间的推移,洪水发生频次明显增加.分析得出,嫩江流域及第二松花江和拉林河流域7,8月的过量降水是造成洪水发生的直接原因.还分析了造成洪水的高空500hPa环流背景,7,8月西藏高原至北美阿拉斯加距平场分布为“ - -“流型,鄂霍次克海为阻塞高压,东北区为低压槽控制.在大水年春季,阿留申低槽加深,并向西延伸,乌拉尔高压形成并东移加强.1998年松嫩大水的发生基本符合上述规律和环流原因.     

"数字石羊河"建立及其在沙尘暴防治中的应用

由于上游超量用水,导致石羊河下游的民勤县绿洲无水可用,生态环境严重恶化,成为我国的第四大沙尘暴策源地.本文提出了建立"数字石羊河"的概念,认为石羊河流域要建立公平的用水机制,在技术上要建立"数字石羊河",最后对"数字石羊河"在沙尘暴防治中的应用作了分析.     

Participation for understanding: an interactive method

INTRODUCTION: There are many available models that help evaluate the effectiveness of safety and health measures, but many are complex and require input from many departments within an organization. There is a need to develop a more user-friendly model. METHOD: A participative model was developed that involves face-to-face interviewers with workers, maintenance department, purchasing department and health and safety experts. They were asked about costs, efforts, benefits, and effects of gauging the effects of prevention efforts. RESULTS: Cost effectiveness analyses are essential in all cases and can include whatever the end-user requires, whether it is a small or lasting improvement. Having management participate helps validate the data. CONCLUSIONS: Organizations who collaborate with someone with at least some skill in cost-benefit evaluations will find that they will be able to establish policies and procedures from the data. The end result is a calculation that is understood by all involved.     

The potential-method--an economic evaluation tool

INTRODUCTION: Measuring the effect of safety and health on production is a difficult value to gauge. METHOD: This article introduces the Potential, which is an instrument for economic analysis that incorporates different changes in conditions. RESULTS: While there are a number of problems associated with methods to determine these calculations, this method is a good indicator of the effects of safety and health and produces more than 300 variables with much less input. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Organizations can use this method effectively to determine how safety and health measure can improve their bottom line. A positive business case is highlighted.